Future Agenda The world in 2025 - Final

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  • TheWorldin2025InsightsfromMul0pleExpertDiscussions25February2016 Theworldsleadingopenforesightprogram

  • TheWorldin2025Thisdocumentprovidesasummaryofwhatweheardfrommul0pleexpertvoicesaroundtheworldonhowitischanging,whatisdrivingthischange,wherewillbetheimpactsandwhythesemayevolveoverthenextdecade.

  • FutureAgendaTheFutureAgendaistheworldslargestopenforesightprogram

    thataccessesmul0pleviewsofthenextdecadesowecanallbebeIerinformedands0mulateinnova0on.

  • LookingForwardsOrganisa0onsincreasinglywanttoiden0fyandunderstand

    boththean0cipatedandunexpectedchangessothattheycanbebeIerpreparedforthefuture.

  • FutureAgenda1.0TopInsightsfor2020Fromthe2010program,52keyinsightsonthenextdecadeweresharedwidelyandhavebeenextensivelyusedbyorganisa0onsaroundtheworld.

    FutureAgendabecametheworldslargestopenforesightplaLorm.

  • FutureAgendainNumbersThefirstFutureAgendaprogrammeengagedawiderangeofviewsin

    25countries.FutureAgenda2.0hasdoubledtheface-to-faceinterac0onandsignificantlyraisedonlinesharing,debateanddiscussion.

    FutureAgenda1.01HOST16TOPICS25COUNTRIES50WORKSHOPS1500ORGANISATIONS

    FutureAgenda2.050HOSTS24TOPICS35COUNTRIES120WORKSHOPS5000ORGANISATIONS

  • FutureAgenda2.0TopicsThesecondversionoftheFutureAgendaprogramtookplace

    during2015andhasbeenaddressing24topicsvia120eventsin45ci0esin35countriesinpartnershipwith50corehosts.

    Ci0es

    Educa0on

    Learning

    Transport

    Collabora0on

    Energy

    Loyalty

    Travel

    Company

    Faith

    Payments

    Water

    Connec0vity

    Food

    Privacy

    Wealth

    Currency

    Government

    Resources

    Work

    Ageing

    Data

    Health

    Trade

  • EightKeyThemesAcrossthemul0plediscussions,60emergingissuesaretouching

    uponandconnec0ngwitheightunderlying,andinterwoven,themeswithdifferentemphasisindifferentcountries.Thesearedetailedbelow.

    TheCertainOes

    InterconnectedSystems

    TheDataRevoluOon

    UnequalAccess

    OurHabitat

    BeliefsandBelonging

    PowerandInfluence

    ChangingBusiness

  • TheCertainOes

  • EverythingConnectedOver1trillionsensorsareconnectedtomul0plenetworks:everythingthatcanbenefitfromaconnec0onhasone.Wedeliver10,000xmoredata100xmoreeffec0velybutareconcernedaboutthesecurityoftheinforma0onthatflows.

  • ImbalancedPopulaOonGrowthAgrowingpopula0onaddsanotherbillionpeoplebutitisalsorapidlyageing:achildbornnextyearwilllive6monthslongerthanoneborntoday.Whilemigra0onhelpstorebalance,increasingdependencyra0oschallengemany.

  • KeyResourceConstraintsEconomic,physicalandpoli0calshortagesofkeyresourcesincreaseanddriveincreasingtensionbetweenandwithincountries.AsweexceedtheEarthsnaturalthresholds,foodandwaterreceiveasmuchfocusasoilandgas.

  • ShiUingPowerandInfluenceThecentreofgravityofeconomicpowercon0nuesshi_ingeastwards,backtowhereitwas200yearsago.Recentsuperpowersseektomoderatethepaceofchangebutthereali0esofpopula0onandresourceloca0onsareimmoveable.

  • InterconnectedSystems

  • AffordableHealthcareTheescala0ngcostofhealthcareisfurtherstressedbytheneedtosupporttheoldandthechronicallyill.Spending20%ofGDPonhealthcareisseenasunsustainablesoharddecisionsaretakenaroundbudgetsandpriori0es.

  • AirQualityRisingairpollu0oninmanyci0esiskillingpeopleandbecomesavisiblecatalystforchangingmind-setsandpoliciesacross

    health,energy,transporta0onandurbandesign.

  • AutonomousVehiclesTheshi_tofullyautonomoustransportisanevolu0onviatruckplatoonsonhighwaysandsmallurbandeliverypods.Connectedcarscreatethenetworkandtestthetechnologiesfortheeventualrevolu0onarydriverlessexperience.

  • DeeperCollaboraOonPartnershipsshi_tobecomemoredynamic,long-term,democra0sed,

    mul0-partycollabora0ons.Compe0toralliancesandwiderpublicpar0cipa0ondriveregulatorstocreatenewlegalframeworksforopen,empathe0ccollabora0on.

  • EnergyStorageStorage,andpar0cularlyelectricitystorage,isthemissingpieceintherenewablesjigsaw.Ifsolved,itcanenabletrulydistributedsolar

    energyaswellasacceleratetheelectrifica0onofthetransportindustry.

  • FoodWaste30-50%ofourfoodiswastedeitherinthesupplychainorinconsump0onandcouldfeedanother3billion.Op0misingdistribu0onandstorageindevelopingcountriesandenablingbeIerconsumerinforma0oninotherscouldsolvethis.

  • IntraCityCollaboraOonIncreasingcompe00onbetweenci0esoverridesna0onalboundariesanddrives

    change.TheycompetetoaIractthebestbutalsocollaboratetoavoidthedownsideofsuccessover-crowding,under-resourcingandpollu0on.

  • OpenSupplyWebsTheshi_fromcentralisedproduc0ontodecentralisedmanufacturingdrivesmanytotakeasmalleranddistributedapproach:globalsupplychainsarereplacedbymoreregional,consumer-orientatedsupplywebsandnetworks.

  • UrbanObesityMassurbanisa0on,reducedac0vityandpoordietsareaccelera0ngtheriseofobesity.Levelsofobesityinmostci0esaregrowingfastandtheassociatedhealthcareburdenwillsoonaccountfor5%ofglobalGDP.

  • TheDataRevoluOon

  • DataOwnershipIndividualsrecognizethevalueoftheirdigitalshadows,privacyagentscurateclientsdatasetswhilepersonaldatastoresgiveustransparentcontrolofourinforma0on:Weretainmoreownershipofourdataandopttoshareit.

  • EnhancedPerformanceWearedevelopingkeytechnologiesthatcouldintegratehumans

    anddatatomakeussafer,moreinformedandpoten0allysuper-humaninperformance-butshouldwe?

  • EthicalMachinesAutoma0onspreadsbeyondtradingandmanagingsystemicrisk.Asweapproachtechnologysingularity,autonomousrobotsand

    smarteralgorithmsmakeethicaljudgmentsthatimpactlifeordeath.

  • PrivacyRegulaOonThepushtowardsglobalstandards,protocolsandgreatertransparency

    isafocusformanyna0onsdrivingproac0veregula0on,butotherschoosetoopt-outofinterna0onalagreementsandgotheirownway.

  • TheChangingNatureofPrivacyAsprivacyisapublicissue,moreinterna0onalframeworksseektogoverntheInternet,protectthevulnerableandsecurepersonaldata:Thebalancebetween

    protec0on,security,privacyandpublicgoodisincreasinglypoli0cal.

  • TheValueofDataAsorganisa0onstrytoretainasmuchinforma0onabouttheircustomersaspossible,databecomesacurrencywithavalueandaprice.Ittherefore

    requiresamarketplacewhereanythingthatisinforma0onisrepresented.

  • TruthandIllusionTheInternethasdemocra0sedknowledgeandchangedthenatureofwhowetrustandwhy.Asconfidenceinlargeorganisa0onsdeclinesthesearchfortrustworthy

    alterna0vesevolves.Whatwebelieveischanginghowwebehave.

  • UnequalAccess

  • AccesstoTransportThewidespreadneedforindividualstotravelshortdistancesbecomesakeyfeatureofurbandesignandregenera0on.Plannersusetransport

    infrastructuretoinfluencesocialchangeandlowercarbonliving.

  • CapitalismChallengeUnabletoshakeissueslikeinequality,capitalistsocie0esfacecriesforchange,structuralchallengesandtechnologyenabledfreedoms.Togetherthesere-write

    therulesandproposeacollabora0velandscapeofallworkingtogether.

  • CaringforThoseLeUBehindAlthoughsignificantprogresshasbeenmadeposi0vechangehaslimitedreach.

    Millionsofpeoplecon0nuetobele_behindfrommainsteamprogress-especiallytheyoung,thepoorandthosewhoaredisadvantaged

  • EducaOonRevoluOonBroaderaccesstoimprovededuca0onactsasamajorcatalystfor

    empowerment,sustainedeconomicgrowth,overcominginequalityandreducingconflict.Weneedaneduca0onsystemfitforthedigitalrevolu0on.

  • MassEngagementAsthepublicvoicebecomeseasiertoaccessandhardertosuppress,leadersseektoengagetocreate,develop,secureandmaintainlegi0macyfortheir

    ini0a0vesandpoliciessofurtherreducingtheirhierarchicalpower.

  • Off-GridPeoplelivingoff-grid,byinequalityorchoice,canexacerbatesocietaldivisionorimproveprivacy,healthandwellbeing.Eitherway,doingsoprovidesfer0legroundforinnova0on.

  • RisingYouthUnemploymentWithunemploymentratesover50%insomena0ons,accesstoworkisarisingbarrier.EspeciallyacrossNorthAfrica,theMiddleEastandsouthernEurope,alostgenera0onof100myoungpeoplefailstogainfromglobalgrowth.

  • ShrinkingMiddleWhiletheglobalmiddleclassgrows,intheWestincreasinginequalityforsomedrivesarela0vedeclineinmiddle-incomepopula0ons.Coupledwith

    theerosionofsecurejobs,theUSinpar0cularseesasteadilyshrinkingmiddle.

  • OurHabitat

  • AcceleraOngDisplacementClimatechange,conflict,resourceshortages,inequalityandpoli0calelitesunableorunwillingtobringaboutnecessarychangealltriggerunprecedentedmigra0ontotheNorth.Overthenext50years,asmanyas1billionpeoplecouldbeonthemove.

  • BasicSanitaOonPoorsanita0oncon0nuestoimpactpublichealthandrestrictsocialprogress,

    par0cularlyforwomen.Governmentsanddonororganisa0onspriori0semeasurement,educa0onandinnova0oninabidtodrivechange.

  • Built-inFlexibilityThepathtoaconnected,accessibleanddistributedinfrastructureisfraughtwithcomplex,costlyandriskyissues:Upgradingandrepurposingsystemstomakethemmoreopenpluson-goingmaintenanceneedsignificantresources.

  • CiOzen-CentricCiOesSuccessfulci0eswillbedesignedaroundtheneedsanddesiresofincreasinglyempoweredandenabledci0zens-whoareexpec0ngpersonalizedservicesfromtheorganisa0onsthatservethem.

  • FloodedCiOesThevastmajorityofourci0esarenotpreparedforflooding.Manydistricts

    andhouseholdscannolongergetfloodinsuranceandareinjeopardy.ItsgoingtogetworsebeforeitgetsbeIer.

  • InfrastructureDeficitInfrastructureagainbecomesasourceofcompe00veadvantage.Emerging

    economiesinvestinnewrailroadsandhighwaysformoreeffec0vemovementofpeopleandgoods,whiledevelopedna0onssufferfrompoorlegacy.

  • NaturesCapitalIntheAnthropocene,humankindispresidingoverthe

    Earth'ssixthmajorex0nc0on.Butasbiodiversitydeclines,naturebecomesincreasinglyvaluedandvaluable.

  • Pla