Demography and Tourism: Our Contribution to the Literature

Drs. Ian Yeoman & Karen SmithVictoria University of Wellington

Prof. Sandra WatsonEdinburgh Napier University

Prof. Cathy HsuHong Kong Polytechnic University

Some basic facts• 6.8 billion live in the world today, this is forecasted to growth to 9.1

billion by 2050• Societies across the world are ageing. By 2030, over 20% of the

world’s population is projected to be over the age of 55, according to UN forecasts.

• By 2050, the median age of the respective populations of Japan, South Korea, Germany and Italy will be above 50. In most markets the median age will be above 40.

• Life expectancy varies across regions. It is higher in developed regions and continues to increase in emerging economies where rising prosperity is improving the health of citizens.

• More of the world lives in urban centres compared to rural communities

• The birth rate is falling • Feminisation of society• Ethic mix’s in many countries have changed as a result of globalisation

Populations across all global regions are ageing. Lifestyles and attitudes are evolving

An Ageless Society

• The combined factors of increased longevity, compressed morbidity and an ageing global population are impacting society’s predefined perceptions of age-appropriate behaviours and choices.

• Consumers’ understanding of what defines old age, middle years and youth are shifting and age is becoming less determining across areas such as career, leisure, holidays, online activities, mobile usage, media consumption, etc. It is an increasingly accepted truth that reaching middle-age does not imply a sudden slowing down of activity, a disintegration of one’s looks or a sudden disinterest in fashion or new technologies.

An Ageless Society• Contemporary culture is fertile ground for older role models such as

Sophia Loren, Clint Eastwood, Karl Lagerfeld all proving that one can remain fully attractive, successful and dynamic into one’s sixties and seventies.

• Disguising and altering visible signs of ageing has become far more accessible thanks to the wealth of cosmetic products, health, nutrition and lifestyle advice, plastic surgery procedures and flattering fashions at our disposal. Outwardly, we all can appear years younger than our actual age and striving to do so is widely accepted culturally.

• Current generations age attitudinal differences between age groups are becoming less stark.

Purpose

• Identify each chapter’s contribution to our understanding of tourism and demography

• The construction of a cognitive map of tourism and demography as identified by this edited collection of chapters

• Identify the contribution of this book to our understanding of tourism and demography based upon the clusters of Demography Axis; The Transformation of Markets; Business Transformation and Glass Ceilings are Broken

• Further research

Cognitive Mapping• Cognitive mapping is a representation of knowledge in a

structure manner that represents constructs, beliefs, discourse etc

• A map of a person’s connected thoughts.• DECISION EXPLORER (DE) is an interactive tool for assisting

and clarifying problems using the principles of problem structuring, causality and cognition

• DE allows a visual display and analysis of cognitive maps in such a manner that it permits ‘multiple viewpoints’, ‘holding of concepts’, ‘tracing of concepts’ and ‘causal relationship management’

• To find the contribution of this book to the literature, cognitive maps where constructed on each contributors chapter resulting in an aggregated paper of knowledge

Ch 1: Demography and TourismYeoman & Butterfield

Ageing populations

The key contribution of the chapter lies in the explicit nature of ‘how tourism will be affected by these demographic changes’, whether it is labour supply in Scotland, fiscal policy, outbound travel or terrorism. The authors contend that the affects of these demographic changes will influence both tourism supply and demand on a global scale.

Ch 2: Tomorrow’s TouristsFlatters et al

The contribution of this chapter lies in:The Rise of AsiaThe globalisation of family, social, and civil society ties The travel market will diversifyPopulation increase and value-preferences will continue to drive growth in the overall tourism sector

Ch 3: An Aging Population and Changing Family StructuresGlover & Prideaux

Graphics from nVision for Ian Yeoman15638: Graphics from nVision for Ian Yeoman

Frequency of grandparents looking after grandchildren% who were looked after by their grandparents, by year of birth and frequency

‘When you were a child how often did your grandparents look after you?’

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1937 or before 1938-1947 1948-1957 1958-1967 1968-1977 1978-1986

More than once a week Once every week or two Once a month

Source: 'Complicated Lives', The Future Foundation/nVisionBase: 1010 adults 16+, 2002Their contribution to the literature is based upon two

interrelated aspects, how changes in time and wealth as a result of demography will affect tourism demand.

Ch 4: Families in Nature Tourism: Trends in Holiday Locations and ActivitiesZeppel & Sibtain

contribution is based upon their observation that as urbanisation in society increases, the definition of luxury tourism changes as families want to get back to basic values.

Ch 5: VFR Travellers of the FutureBacker

The significant contribution of this chapter lies in the changes to the demand and products. As a result of increased wealth and time usage, and as consequence of increased single person households, especially females, consumers are travelling more frequently to reconnect with family and friends.

Ch 6: Generation Y and Travel FuturesMoscardo et al

The contribution of this research is that it demonstrates how age is a clear driver of tourism products and demand. The authors lay out the characteristics of Gen Y as being civic minded, multi-taskers, technology savvy, educated, and multi cultured, with fewer siblings than previous cohorts. In relation to tourism the authors indicate that they have a strong desire for social interaction, volunteerism, are seeking new experiences and novelty, causal accommodation rather than formality.

Ch 7: Gap Year Travel Alternatives Lyons & Wearing

The contribution from this chapter is in providing an alternative perspective to the characteristics of Gen-Y, which portrays a generation which is governed by self interest rather than being altruistic

Ch 8: What Does Generation Y Want from Conferences and Incentive Programmes? Davidson

Davidson clearly identifies a contribution to understanding based upon the need for the conference and incentive industry to understand that as a delegate, Gen-Y members will use interactive, visual and social media, that they expect the conference to entertainment them, they need interaction with speakers, will wish to be involved in the design, and are comfortable with technology. In addition, while being open to different cultural experiences, Gen-Y members have a high degree of social and environmental consciousness, and will only visit places with a positive and sustainable destination image.

Ch 9: US Tourism: Arizona at the Leading Edge Cothran

The richest 20% of Americans today control 85% of the nation’s wealth (i.e., net worth), leaving the bottom 80% with only 15% of the nation’s wealth. Cothran contends that this lagging wage growth and low savings rates translates to less disposable income for the young and middle-aged, whose incomes (adjusted for inflation) have ‘…fallen off a cliff since 2000’, leaving many aged 54 and younger poorer than they were in the 1970s. As a result, the future means tourism bounded to day trips rather than overnight stays, more VFR, lower spending and multi generational groups.

Ch 10: Micronesian Islands: Adapting to ChangeSchumann

Guam experienced decreases in tourist arrivals in two of its three major markets. The changes are attributed to Japan’s lost decade and economic bubble. Taking a longer term perspective, Schumann identifies that Japan’s population is declining with a low-birth rate and ageing population…….The contribution of this chapter lies in the clarification of the consequence of changes in the demographic profile of a major component of its market on a region reliant on a demand for beach holidays.

Ch 11: ‘It’s the People You Know’ Weaver

The chapter contributes a series of examples of how companies are doing this to make informed marketing and business decisions, like the use of Radio Frequency Information data (RFID) chips to target more lucrative consumers

Ch 12: Demographic Changes and the Labour Market in the International Tourism IndustryBaum

Tourism faces many challenges going into the future, this chapter clearly provides a contribution through its exposition on how labour supply changes impact on tourism, primarily as a result of ageing populations.

Ch 13: Asian Tourism and Management Landscapes Sun

The contribution of the chapter is that through its exploration of Asia, it presents a picture of demographic change that highlights the major role in tourism and its labour market issues. It portrays a situation in which the glass ceiling is broken and management in the region find its natural landscape.

Ch 14: The Development of Cognitive Map of Demography and Tourism Yeoman & Watson

Contribution 1

• Demography Axis: – A direct correlation between tourism and demography lies in

whether future tourists have wealth and leisure time. Are future tourists cash poor and time rich in the future as a result of falling GDP per capita and an increasingly amount of leisure time?

Contribution 2:

• The Transformation of Markets:– Existing markets are transforming, this book clearly

identifies expectation, attitude and behavioural differences between Generation Y and Baby Boomers. An emergence of the increased presence of the singleton market, a decline in the size and changes to the composition of families will impact on tourism markets. Globalisation and ecological concerns can be seen to influence the nature of tourism activities, for example, VFR and nature tourism. As a consequence tourism businesses will need to realign products and experiences.

Contribution 3

• Business Transformation: – The parallel changes in technology

combined with demography data allows tourism business to profile specific markets to target the right tourist at the right time with the right offer, due to micro segmentation on a scale that was not previously possible.

Contribution 4

• Glass Ceilings are Broken: – As labour markets become squeezed and

business seek to keep professional talent, previous barriers and norms will be broken especially in Asia as expatriate managers retire and educated female managers rise to prominence.

Further Research

• The impact of demography on urban populations• Economic impact of demography change and tourism• A detailed examination of outbound / inbound tourist

flows• A detailed examination of pension crisis on future

generations• The future of urban tribes and groups - the singleton• Further analysis of supply side demographic issues• The impact of demography on China's rising middle

classes.

Want to know more………

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