Spatial Demography Spatial Demography Lectures I. Basic Principles and Measures of Demography II. Types and Patterns of Disease III. Infectious Diseases,

Spatial Demography

Spatial Demography Lectures

I. Basic Principles and Measures of Demography

II. Types and Patterns of Disease

III. Infectious Diseases, Epidemics, and Spatial Diffusion Models

IV. Spatial Population Dynamics

V. World Population Problems and Prospects

Spatial Demography - IV. Spatial Population Dynamics

A. Demographic Accounting Equation (revisited)

• P(t+1)=P(t)

+B(t,t+1) -D(t,t-1) {natural change}

+I(t,t+1) -E(t,t+1) {net international migration}

+IN(t,t1)-OUT(t,t+1) {net internal migration}

• Internal versus international migration

• Spatial focus of immigration

• Example: California

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Spatial Demography -IV. Spatial Population DynamicsH

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Migration - Permanent relocation of residential place and activity space.



Migration Biographies

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Stuart Laura Kevin Meri

Miles from POB

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Migration Biographies

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Age profile of migration and the life course


Why is migration important?

• Increasing global mobility

• Integrative issue in geography

• Policy relevance - pursuit of happiness (survival)


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Migration typology

• Forced

• Reluctant

• Voluntary



Forced migration in Africa (circa 1994)

International Migration Flows Africa (circa 1993)


Factors influencing the migration decision

• Economic Utility maximization

• Push (Origins) and Pull (Destinations)

• Spatial search, uncertainty, and hierarchical decision-making


Channelization


Gravity Model (macro-model of migration)

• Newton’s law of universal gravitation

• Spatial interaction


Ravenstein’s Migration Laws (1870-80s)

• Most migrants go only a short distance.

• Longer-distance migration favors big city destinations.

• Most migration proceeds step-by-step.

• Most migration is rural to urban.

• Each migration flow produces a counterflow.

• Most migrants are adults; families are less likely to make international moves.

• Most international migrants are young males.


Big Issues

• Population growth

• Food supply

• Health

• Status of women

• Migration

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Spatial Demography – V. Population Problems and Prospects

• Environmental consequences

How to diffuse the population bomb?

Spatial Demography - II. Types and Patterns of Diseases, A

World Population Growth

• 177 M babies - 86 M deaths

• ~ 90,000,000 annually or 230,000 per day.

• Stabilize at 10 billion??

• Millions versus billions


Population Reference Bureau examples:

• A 2.5 centimeter stack of U.S. paper currency contains 233 bills. If you had a million dollars in thousand-dollar bills, the stack would be 11 centimeters high. If you had a billion dollars in thousand-dollar bills, your pile of money would reach 109 meters (about the length of a football field).

• You had lived a million seconds when you were 11.6 day old. You won’t be a billion seconds old until you are 31.7 years of age.


Regional Variation in Growth Rates

• India 2.6 down to 1.9

• Africa 2.4 up to 2.8 (contribution of Muslim societies)

• China declined to 1.0

• Continuing rapid growth in Southeast Asia

• South America from 3.0 down to 1.7


Regional Variation in Birth and Death Rates

• High birth rates: Africa & Southwest Asia

• Low birth rates: North America, Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, China

• Transitional birth rates: Latin America,

• High death rates: Africa & Southwest Asia

• Low death rates: Most of the developed world.


Historical Impetuses to Population Growth

• Agricultural revolution

• Industrial revolution

• Urbanization and sanitation

• Advances in medicine

• Conquest and colonization of new lands

• Developing countries


Historical Checks on Population Growth

Epidemics and plagues (bubonic plague 1348-1350)

– 1/4 population killed

– 50% attrition in some towns

– England lost 4M

• Famines

– India and China 18th and 19th centuries

– Irish potato famine

• Wars

• Natural decrease


Demographic Transition

• Stage I: high birth rates, high death rates

• Stage II: high birth rates, declining death rates

• Stage III: declining birth rates, low death rates

• Stage IV: low birth rates, low death rates

• Stage V: low rates with natural decrease


Malthus & Exponential Growth

• Malthus (1798)

• Linear (food production) versus Geometric (population)

• Why was he wrong (short term)?

• Was he wrong (the future)?

• Neo-malthusians/demographic fatigue

• J-curve, S-curve, and homeostatic plateau

• Intervention and demographic momentum

Spatial Demography - V. Population Problems and Prospects

How to diffuse the population bomb?


Documents

Spatial Demography Spatial Demography Lectures I. Basic Principles and Measures of Demography II. Types and Patterns of Disease III. Infectious Diseases,