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EL MERCADO DE LA MADERA:Perspectivas de La Bio-energíay la Pulpa de Celulosa
Discussions withSociedad de Productores Forestales
Montevideo July, 4 2012
Facilitated by Mr João Cordeiro
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AGENDA
What is Pöyry ?Is the Digital Age Killing the Paper Industry ?What Drives the Success of Eucalyptus Fibre ?Can Value Be Created With Bio-energy ?
Montevideo, Uruguay
COPYRIGHT@PÖYRY Montevideo, Uruguay 3
SCOPE OF OUR DISCUSSIONS TODAY
Forest Products
Multitude ofconventional techno-logies and processes
Multitude of emerging technologies and processes
Conversion
Conventionalproducts
Bioenergy
Newbio-products
4 July 2012
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Montevideo, Uruguay 4
PÖYRY GROUPGLOBAL EXPERTS IN CONSULTING AND ENGINEERING
Pöyry is a global consulting and engineeringcompany dedicated to balanced sustainabilityand responsible business
7 000 experts in about 50 countriesProject experience in over 100 countries15 000 projects annually
Net sales in 2011 EUR 796 millionListed on the NASDAQ OMX Helsinki
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Montevideo, Uruguay 5
WIDE RANGE OF DEEP EXPERTISE
URBAN & MOBILITYUrban planningReal estate developmentTransport planningRail infrastructureRoad infrastructureConstructionmanagementBuilding design
WATER & ENVIRONMENTWaterWastewaterWasteEnvironment
INDUSTRYPulp and paperChemicals Minerals processing
ENERGYHydropowerThermal powerBio-renewablesOil and gasNuclear energyTransmission and distribution
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THE DIGITAL AGEAND THE PAPER INDUSTRY
4 July 2012Montevideo, Uruguay
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7Montevideo, Uruguay
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WORLD PAPER AND BOARD CONSUMPTION 1950-2010
4 July 2012Montevideo, Uruguay 8
A snap-shot of the last 60 years.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Million tons
1950s:CAGR 5.5%/a3.0 million t/a
1980s:CAGR 3.5%/a6.9 million t/a
1970s:CAGR 3.1%/a4.5 million t/a
1960s:CAGR 5.7%/a5.3 million t/a
1990s:CAGR 3.1%/a8.7 million t/a
2000-2010:CAGR 1.8%/a6.3 million t/a
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UNDERSTANDING PAPER GRADES
examplesGraphic Papers Newsprint Newspapers
Uncoated Wood-Containing MagazinesCoated Wood-Containing Books
HandbooksUncoated Woodfree Copy PapersCoated Woodfree Manuals
Industrial Papers Containerboard Corrugated Boxes
Cartonboard Folding Cartons
Wrapping and Sack Bags
Hygiene Tissue Papers Toilet PapersPaper TowelsNapkins
Montevideo, Uruguay
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-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
0 20 40 60 80 100Share of consumption in 2010, %
Demand growth, %/a
10
LONG-TERM DEMAND GROWTH BY PRODUCT THROUGH 2025
CWF
Average 1.6%/a
World paper demand is expected to grow by 1.6%/a in the long term.Tissue, containerboards and cartonboards will be the fastest growing productareas, while the global demand for newsprint/mechanical printing papers isexpected to decline.
Newsprint UWCCWC
UWF
TissueContainerboard
Cartonboard
SackOther P&B
4 July 2012Montevideo, Uruguay
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GDP AND GRAPHIC PAPER CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000GDP per capita, in terms of real USD (2009 price level)
Consumption, kg per capita
There has been a clear shift in terms of per capita consumption between 2005 and2010. At higher income levels (above USD 40 000 per capita) the per capitaconsumption has declined on average by 15-25 kg.
Country data 2010
World cross-section 2010
World cross-section 2005
4 July 2012Montevideo, Uruguay
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Montevideo, Uruguay 12
SUBSTANTIAL DEMAND GROWTH OUTSIDE GRAPHIC PAPERS
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Million tonnes
Forecast
When we look at the big picture, it is easy to see who needs fibre in the future.To put it simple, all growth is in tissue and packaging.
Tissue
Graphic Papers
Packaging
Other
-0.1%/v
2.6%/v
3.2%/a
0.5%/a
CAGR 2010-25
CAGR 2010-25: 1.6%/a
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-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Demand Growth, %/a
LONG-TERM GROWTH OF PAPER AND PAPERBOARD DEMAND BY REGION THROUGH 2025
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¨The growth of paper and paperboard demand will be fast in many emergingeconomies, while a decline is expected in traditional markets.
Oceania
Average 1.6%/a
Share of consumption in 2010, %
Middle East
Latin AmericaEastern Europe
China
India
Russia
Africa
Rest of Asia
JapanNorth AmericaWestern Europe
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The growth of production is shifting outside the traditional supply areas.
PAPER AND PAPERBOARD PRODUCTION PROSPECTS 2010-2025
0 20 40 60 80 100
North America
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
Japan
China
Rest of Asia
Latin America
Other regions
Production Consumption
Production and consumption 2010
Million tons-20 0 20 40 60 80
North America
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
Japan
China
Rest of Asia
Latin America
Other regions
Growth of production 2010-2025
Million tons
4 July 2012Montevideo, Uruguay
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WHAT DRIVES THE SUCCESS OF EUCALYPTUS FIBRE?
4 July 2012Montevideo, Uruguay
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QUALITY WISE EUCALYPTUS IS SUPERIOR IN MANY APPLICATIONS
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Example Tissue Paper made with Eucalyptus pulp• High softness• High bulk, “fluff ness”-- loosened paper structure • Fast liquid absorption and capacity to retain water • Adequate porosity (pore sizes and distribution)
Montevideo, Uruguay
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SUSTAINABILITY IS KEY FOR OUR LONG-TERM SUCCESS
4 July 201217Montevideo, Uruguay
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THE WORLD OF FIBRE
Paper & Board374 million t
Papermaking Fibre170.7 million t
Mechanical35.1 million t
Chemical119.7 million t
Recovered Fibre203.5 million t
54% 46%
70%
26% 28% 46%
The main raw material for paper is paper !
21%Non-wood
15.8 million t
9%
BHKP54.7 million t
Other pulp33.5 million t
BSKP31.5 million t
Integrated11.0 million t
Fluff Pulp3.9 million t
35%53%
Dissolving4.5 million t
Market Pulp 25.3 million t
46%Integrated
29.4 million t
54%Market
16.6 million t
12%
Montevideo, Uruguay
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WORLD DEMAND FOR CHEMICAL PULP 1995-2025
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Million tons
North America
China
Rest of Asia
Latin America
Western Europe
In the long term, global demand for chemical fibre is forecast to grow from 126million tons in 2010 to 150 million tons by the year 2025, corresponding to anaverage growth rate of 1.2%/a.
Eastern EuropeJapan
Emerging marketsCAGR 3.8%/a
Mature marketsCAGR-0.6%/a
OtherForecast
4 July 201219Montevideo, Uruguay
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COMPLEMENTARY EXPANSIONPulp and paper capacity in Asia and in South America
Capacity 1000 t/a2 0001 000
200
PaperPulp
mostly pulp mostly paper
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20
25
30
35
40
45
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
%
SHARE OF MARKET PULP
Forecast
Pulp is called “market pulp” when pulps are sold as raw material to paperproduction – typically pulp is dried and transported to a paper mill in anotherlocation.
Share of market pulpof total wood pulps
4 July 2012Montevideo, Uruguay
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9.3
0.2
Total Recovered Fibre Trade 54 million tonsTotal Wood Pulp Trade 47 million tons
0.3
1.7
0.3
0.50.2
1.2
1.6
4.9
0.9
12.8
17.4
0.9
0.3
0.6
0.2
GLOBAL WOOD PULP AND RCP TRADE FLOWS
Asia is key - growing importer of both virgin fibre and RCP.
6.8
4.5
0.2
1.70.7
3.5
4.3
6.9
0.8
1.4
3.2
0.6
1.00.7
2.3
1.40.5
0.3
0.4
1.3
0.1
0.92.3
4 July 2012
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Montevideo, Uruguay 23
IMPORTS OF HARDWOOD CHIPS INTO ASIA-PACIFIC
0
5
10
15
20
1995 2000 2005 2010
Japan China Taiwan South Korea Other
million BDMT
Source: Country Import Statistics
China will become the main importer of wood chips before 2020.
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THE IMPORTANCE OF CHINA
0
50
100
150
200
250
1995 2000 2005 2010
China
0
15
30
45
60
75
1995 2000 2005 2010
Recycledfibre consumption, million tons
China
Virgin Market Pulpfibre consumption, million tons
Rest of the WorldRest of the World
Chinese recycled fibre imports are already approaching maximum level of close to 30 million tons while market pulp consumption should about double in next 15
years
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CAN VALUE BE CREATED WITH BIO-ENERGY ?
4 July 2012Montevideo, Uruguay
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Montevideo, Uruguay 26
GLOBAL LIFE CYCLE OF WOODMore than half of wood currently used globally, is used in energy production.
Wood Demand1.57 billion bone dry tons
Fuel Wood Sawn Wood Wood panelsFibre / Pulp
Power
Heat By-Products and ResiduesPaper, Board
51% 49%
62% 38%
I N P U T
O U T P U T
CO2, Ash
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Montevideo, Uruguay 27
EU RENEWABLE ENERGY DIRECTIVE
Enforced by the European Parliament and Council in December2008 and it became law in June 2009.It sets the following binding targets:
• 20% increase in energy efficiency • 20% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions • 20% share of renewable energy in overall
EU final energy consumption by 2020 • 10% biofuel component in vehicle fuels by 2020
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EXAMPLES OF RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGETS
16
15
12
16
4
3
1
5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Germany
France
Italy
United Kingdom
Sweden
Finland
Austria
Netherlands
Mtoe of renewable energy
20102020
Mtoe
Selected Countries Shown
1 Mtoe = 11.63 TWh
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Montevideo, Uruguay 29
NATIONAL RENEWABLE ACTION PLANS THE “NREAPs”
All EU member states were required to publish an actionplan to detail the measures enabling them to comply withthe 2020 targets.
FinalEnergy
ConsumptionEstimates
Renewable:• Heating & Cooling• Electricity• Transport
TechnologyMix
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FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION OFRENEWABLE ELECTRICITY IN THE EU-27
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
TWh
Liquid biomassfuelsBiogas
Solid biomass
Wind
Solar
Geothermal
Hydropower
Wind is the winner, but there is significant growth in biomass and solar
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Montevideo, Uruguay 31
FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF RENEWABLE HEATING AND COOLING IN THE EU-27
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
TWh
Heat pumps
Liquid biomassfuelsBiogas
Solid biomass
Solar
Geothermal
Renewable heating and cooling in the EU-27 is based mainly on solid biomass.
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Montevideo, Uruguay 32
SCHEMES AND INCENTIVES TO PROMOTE GREEN ENERGY
Guaranteed fixed payment paid for each unit of electricity produced from renewable sources.Guaranteed fixed payment in addition to the wholesale electricity price paid for each unit of electricity produced from renewable sources.Tradable certificate, which is granted to generators for a stated multiple of units of electricity produced from renewable sources. It’s an additional source of income to the wholesale electricity price.Price to be paid for each non-delivered GC in respect of the renewable energy obligation.
System imposing a minimum share of electricity generated from renewable sources on customers, retailers or producers.
System where incentives are guaranteed up to a predetermined amount of capacity or electricity generation from renewable sources.
Any tax related incentive policy (tax deduction, flexible depreciations schemes etc.
Feed-in tariff
Feed-in premium
Green certificate
Penalty price
Quota system
Max quota system
Fiscal incentives
Definitions
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Montevideo, Uruguay 33
The UK has established a renewable electricity quota system with a tradable greencertificates.
Authority
Generator
Ofgem issuesROCs to green
generator
Supplier
Traders
Other suppliers
Generator sells the electricity to supplierCustomer
Supplier sells the electricity to customer
Generator sells the ROCs to any
supplier or trader
ROCs can be traded between suppliers and traders
Suppliers redeem ROCs to meet the
obligation
RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY - CASE UNITED KINGDOM
The current UK system utilises green certificates, known as ROCs, to encourage the adoption of renewable energy generation techniques. The amount of ROCs available to a generator is dependent on the generation technique being used.A purchase obligation is placed on licensed electricity suppliers. Compliance with the obligation is demonstrated either from redemption of GCs (Renewable Obligation Certificates ROCs) or by paying a buy-out price to the Buy-out Fund.Average ROC price has been close to 40 GBP/MWh
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Montevideo, Uruguay 34
Denmark offers both feed-in tariffs and premiums for renewable energy production.
Authority
Generator Supplier CustomerGenerator sells the electricty to supplier Supplier sells the electricty to customer
Renewable electricity and heat is supported both with feed-in tariffs and premiums, however, which one a renewable energy generation facility can claim depends on when it became operational. RE generators are entitled to a Feed-in-tariff (FiT) or a feed-in premium paid on top of the spot electricity market price depending on the date of connection to the grid.Biomass plants connected to the grid after February 2008 get 20,1 €/MWh premium on the top of electricity price for 10 years.
Authority approves generator for feed-
in tariff
D
Electricty price
Feed-in premium
RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY – CASE DENMARK
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Montevideo, Uruguay 35
WOODY AND AGRO BIOMASS SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR ENERGY IN THE EUAccording to Pöyry’s latest estimates and depending on the scenario used,total biomass supply gap is around 230 TWh in 2020,
This represents some 115 million m3 of roundwood equivalent, depending on fuelquality and conversion efficiency
1) Estimated EU 27 woody biomass supply for energy production and NREAP based demand assessment.2) Includes EU 27 annual allowable cuts, post consumer wood, land management wood and harvesting residues potential.3) Immobilised woody biomass potential is resulting among others from imperfect markets and fragmented forest ownership.
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
Woody biomass supply Woody biomass demand Agribiomass demand Agribiomass supply Supply gap
TWh
Supply 2010 Supply 2020 Supply gap Demand 2020 Demand 2010
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Coal price Taxes forcoal
combustion
Emissioncosts
Effect ofgreen
electricityand heatsubsidy
Cost ofefficiency
loss
Biomasspaying
capability
BIOMASS PAYING CAPABILITY
BPC describes the theoretical upper limit of price for pellets delivered at energyplant by taking into account the national energy policy variations.
Model for biomass co-firing
Example UKIn coal co-firing the effect of green certificates could be some 54 EUR/t of pellets.In new biomass CHP plants the effect of green certificates could be some +105 EUR/t of pellets.
4 July 2012Montevideo, Uruguay 36
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THE ABILITY TO PAY FOR WOOD IS CHANGING
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CONVENTIONAL PRODUCTS* FROM WOOD
Pulps
Sawnwood ReconstitutedPanels
Veneer &Plywood
Fuelwood Charcoal
MechanicalPulp
ChemicalPulp
SpecialtyPulps
Paper & Boards FluffPulp
DissolvingPulps
Newsprint Printing&Writing Tissue Packaging Specialty
Papers AbsorbentsEthersNitratesAcetates
Viscose
Diapers, Binders, Glues, CMC, Explosives, Detergents, Food, Pharmacy, Ryon, Yarns, etc,etc
Impregnatedwood
* Non-extensive liist, some examples
4 July 2012
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Bark &Residues
MODERN “CUTS” FROM WOOD –“De la naturaleza a su mesa”
WoodChips
Chips WoodPellets
* Non-extensive lists
PulpMill
SpentLiquor
Extractives
Glucose
HemicellulosesLignin
Pulp Paper
Fuels (e.g ethanol)Organic acidsSolventsSoftnersLubricantswide range of chemicals + polymers
Fibre additivesEmulsifiersHydrogelsSugar-substitutesFurfural (e.g. nylon)wide range of other chemicals
Cellulose
Fatty acidsPharmaceuticalsAntioxidantsBioactive chemicalsOther …
Natural bindersAdhesivesSub-bituminous coalFertilizersCarbon fibresThermo-plastics…
Power &Heat
Power &Heat
4 July 2012
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CONCLUSIONS
4 July 201241
Is the Digital Age Killing the Paper Industry ?– Absolutely Not !
What Drives the Success of Eucalyptus ?– Quality, Cost and Sustainability
Can Value Be Created With Bio-energy ?– It all depends on policies and technologies
For countries like Uruguay and Brazil, rich in land, forestry technologyand competent people, well managed plantation forest translates intomany attractive business opportunities and in improved quality of lifefor our people.
Montevideo, Uruguay
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João Cordeiro Jefferson [email protected] [email protected]+358 40 524 2502 +55 41 3252 7665
Muchas Gracias !
Montevideo, Uruguay