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1 José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo CEO September, 29th 2011 Brazil: The Next Oil Giant?

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Page 1: Brazil the next_oil_giant_english

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José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo CEO

September, 29th 2011

Brazil: The Next Oil Giant?

Page 2: Brazil the next_oil_giant_english

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This presentation may contain forward-looking statements. Such statements reflect only the expectations of the Company's management regarding the future conditions of the economy, the industry, the performance and financial results of the Company, among other factors. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar expressions, are used to identify such statements. These predictions evidently involve risks and uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by the Company. Consequently, these statements do not represent assurance of future results of the Company. Therefore, the Company's future results of operations may differ from current expectations, and readers must not base their expectations solely on the information presented herein. The Company is not obliged to update the presentation and forward-looking statements in light of new information or future developments. Amounts informed for the year 2011 and upcoming years are either estimates or targets.

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally viable under existing economic and operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as discoveries, that the SEC’s guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC.

Cautionary statement for U.S. investors:

DISCLAIMER

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3

6,3

3,9

2,7 2,7 2,6 2,3 2,2

0,7 0,3

XOM RDS BP COP TOT BR CVX ENI STL

PETROBRAS: A WORLD-CLASS INTEGRATED ENERGY COMPANY Among the Leading International Oil Companies

2010 REFINING CAPACITY (MM BOE/D)

2010 PROVEN RESERVES – SEC (BLN BOE)

Notes: Selected peer companies have a majority of capital traded in the public market; * 2009

Source: EvaluateEnergy and Bloomberg

XOM BP RDS CVX BR TOT COP ENI BG

Oil Gas

2010 OIL & GAS PRODUCTION (MM BOE/D)

4.4

3.8

3.3

2.8 2.6

2.4 2.1

1.8

0.6

XOM BP RDS BR TOT CVX COP ENI STL

Oil Gas

24.8

17.8

14.2 12.7

10.7

8.3 6.8

5.4

10.6

341

201 187 169

121 110 87

76 72

XOM RDS CVX PBR BP TOT COP ENI STL

MARKET CAP (US$ BN) - AUGUST 22, 2011

BR * * * *

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THE GROWING IMPORTANCE OF DEEPWATER E&P …

Sources: IHS CERA, WoodMackenzie and PFC Energy

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2005 2010 2015 2020

GoM

Brazil

Nigeria

Angola

Others

MM

Bp

d

Worldwide deepwater production capacity estimates by region

14

Worldwide discoveries

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Deepwater (>2,000 ft)

Shallow Water (<2,000 ft)

Onshore

Worldwide discoveries

Bill

ion

bo

e

Deepwater discoveries in

Brazil represent 1/3 of worldwide discoveries in

the last 5 years

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PBR 22%

Statoil 12%

Shell 11%

ExxonMobil 10%

BP 9%

Chevron 8%

TOTAL 8%

Reliance 4%

BG Group 3%

Anadarko 3%

Other 10%

100

5

8

8

9

10

12

12

13

15

15

45

0 20 40 60 80 100

Others

ENI/Agip

ConocoPhillips

CNOOC

Total

Anadarko

Chevron

BP

ExxonMobil

StatoilHydro

Shell

Petrobras

FPSO Semi Spar TLP Other

1977 Enchova

410ft 125m

1988 Marimbá 1,610ft 491m

1994 Marlim 3,370ft 1,027m

1997 Marlim Sul

5,600ft 1,707m

2003 Roncador

6,180ft 1,884m

2009 Lula

7,125ft 2,172m

… AND PETROBRAS’ LEADERSHIP IN THE SEGMENT … A history of technology development and know-how in Brazilian waters

Deepwater Production 2010 Gross Global Operated¹

Offshore Production Facilities

Source: PFC Energy. Note: These 15 operators accounted for 98% of global deepwater production in 2010. Minimum water depth: 1,000 feet

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… WHICH CAN BE MAINTAINED AT RELATIVELY LOW PRODUCTION COSTS

Source: IEA

Pro

du

ctio

n c

ost

s (U

S$/b

bl-

20

08

)

Reserves (bn bbls)

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Deepwater and ultra-deep water

Produced MENA

Other conventional

oil

CO

₂ -

EOR

EOR

Arc

tic

Heavy oil and bitumen

Oil Shales Gas to liquids Coal to liquids

Petrobras expected maximum break-even cost

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PETROBRAS’ TOTAL RESERVES AND POTENTIAL RECOVERABLE VOLUMES, … Continuous growth from deeper discoveries

Million boe

Potential increase

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

Onshore 0-300 m 300-1500 m > 1500 m Pre-salt's Recoverable Volume Transfer of Rights

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8

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

-

5,00

10,00

15,00

20,00

25,00

30,00

35,00

40,00

45,00

50,00

Tho

usa

nd

bp

d

US$

bill

ion

, de

flla

ted

by

the

PP

I in

de

x

Total Investments Oil Production in Brazil (bpd)

… INVESTMENTS AND DOMESTIC OIL PRODUCTION (1954-2010) Growing investments supporting the increase in production

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57%31%

6%2%

1%

2%

1%

70,6

3,8

13,2 3,1

4,1 2,4

127,5 (*)

2011-2015 BUSINESS PLAN: HIGHER E&P INVESTMENTS

(*) US$ 22,8 bi in Exploration

53%

33%

8%

2%

1% 2% 1%

E&P

Downstream

G&P

Petrochemicals

Distribution

Biofuels

Corporate

73,6

5,1

17,8 2,4 3,5 2,9

118,8

2010-14 US$ 224 billion

2011-15 US$ 224,7 billion

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1.855 1.971 2.004 2.100

321 317 334 435

618

1.120

111 132 144 141

180

246

99 96 93

96

125

142

2008 2009 2010 2011 2015 2020

Oil Production - Brazil Natural Gas Production - Brazil Oil Production - International Natural Gas Production - International

2,386 2,516

6,418

3,993

1,148 543

Pre-Salt

’00

0 b

oe

/day

2,772

845 Transfer of Rights

13

+10 Post-Salt Projects

+8 Pre-Salt Projects

+1 Transfer of Rights

+ 35 Systems

Added Capacity

Oil: 2,300,000 bpd

2,575

3,070

4,910

PRODUCTION TARGETS With broad access to new reserves, Petrobras can more than double its production in the next decade

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106 211 230 214

75

400 292 189

42

749

1601

1980 1990 2000 2010

Deep water

Shallow water

Onshore

181

653

1.271

2.004

Tho

usa

nd

bp

d

HISTORICALLY, PETROBRAS HAS GROWN THROUGH THE EXPANSION TO NEW FRONTIERS…

OIL PRODUCTION IN BRAZIL

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... THE LATEST OF WHICH IS THE MOST IMPORTANT DEEPWATER BREAKTHROUGH WORLDWIDE: THE PRE-SALT PROVINCE

Total Area: 149,000 km2 Area Under Concession: 41,772 km2 (28%) Area Not Under Concession: 107,228 km² (72%) Petrobras’ Interest: 35,739 km2 (24%)

Some key facts: Pre-salt’s proven reserves: 1.2 billion boe Current production: 152 kboed Exploratory success rate: 88% Productivity: 36,322 boed (Lula well) Reduction in drilling+ completion time: 66% of the 2006/7 average

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OIL/WATER SUBSEA SEPARATION

- Resolves limitations from growing water production

- Separates water and oil under the sea, reinjecting water and relieving the size of the surface equipment on the platform

- Field: Marlim (Nov/2011)

RAW WATER INJECTION

- Increases production in existing systems

- 3 subsea systems for pumping raw water (with little treatment) to pressurize the reservoir, increasing recovery factor without increasing surface systems. Pioneer in the world in such water depth

- Field: Albacora (Dec/2011)

... TO SUPPORT THIS GROWTH, PETROBRAS WILL IMPLEMENT CUTTING-EDGE TECHNOLOGIES ...

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… AND WILL PROCURE CRITICAL RESOURCES, WITH INCREASINGLY HIGHER LOCAL CONTENT …

15

39

37

65

287

423

479

568

44

54

61

94

78

80

81

83

2010

By 2013

By 2015

By 2020

Drilling Rigs (Water Depth Above 2.000 m) Supply and Special Vessel

Production Platforms SS and FPSO Others (Jacket and TLWP)

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… FOSTERING THE GROWTH OF THE BRAZILIAN INDUSTRY THROUGH STRATEGIES AIMED AT ENHANCING ITS COMPETITIVENESS

Bottlenecks identification and Industry mobilization

Demands visibility,

Vendor list expansion and

Simplified bidding process

Funding and Support to the supply chain

Technological Management and Incentives

to new entrants

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WITH A VIEW TO MAINTAINING ITS DOMINANT POSITION IN THE BRAZILIAN MARKET, …

UPSTREAM OPERATIONS DOWNSTREAM OPERATIONS

Petrobras

Other Companies

Existing Pipelines

Refineries

Marine Terminal

Inland Terminal

Dominant Position

Growing Market

Logistical Synergies

Stable Cash Flows

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... ONE OF THE LARGEST AND FASTEST GROWING MARKETS IN THE WORLD ...

Sources: BP Statistical Review / Petrobras estimates

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015

Brazil USA India China World OECD

9,06

4,45

3,32 3,20 2,81 2,60 2,44 2,38 2,28 1,99 1,80 1,74 1,59

2010 TOTAL OIL CONSUMPTION* (MM BPD) *Includes ethanol and biodiesel

>3 MM bpd 2-3 MM bpd <2 MM bpd 19,15

TOTAL OIL CONSUMPTION (1999=100)

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181

2.004 2.100

3.070

4.910

1.393 1.798 1.811

2.205

3.217

1.036

2.147 2.208

2.536

3.095

1980 2010 2011 2015 2020

Oil and NGL production - Brazil Throughput - Brazil Oil products demand (2 scenarios)

3.327

2.643

... PETROBRAS WILL BUILD NEW REFINERIES ...

ABREU E LIMA 230 kbpd

(2012)

COMPERJ (1st train) 165 kbpd

(2013)

PREMIUM I (2nd train) 300 kbpd

(2019)

PREMIUM II 300 kbpd

(2017)

COMPERJ (2nd train) 165 kbpd

(2018)

PREMIUM I (1st train) 300 kbpd

(2016)

(th

ou

san

d b

pd

)

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Average API Processed (2020)*

-5,5

Premium Refineries

22,5

Existing Refineries

28,0

Crude Sulfur Content (2020)*

+0,1

Premium Refineries

0,6

Existing Refineries

0,5

(pp

m)

Average Naphthenic Acidity (2020)*

0,5

1,3

+0,7

Premium Refineries

Existing Refineries

(mg

KO

H/g

)

Average Crude Cost (2020)*

-5,8

-2,3

Premium Refineries

67

Existing Refineries

69

Brent

75

(US$

/bb

l)

* Estimates

... WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE COST-EFFICIENT The new refineries will process a different crude profile, with lower oil costs

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Total

Demand

Thermal Power Plants’ Demand: Petrobras + Third parties

NATURAL GAS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A KEY ROLE IN PETROBRAS’ STRATEGY

Firm

Flexible 30

24

30

24

30

24

2020 2015 2011

Total

Supply 173 149

106 200 151 96

Petrobras’ Demand: Downstream + Fertilizers

Non-thermal power

NG Distributors Demand

2020 2015 2011

2011 2015 2020 2011 2015 2020

Guanabara Bay

Pecém

Bahia 41

20

14 41

20

14 21

14

Bolivian Supply

Domestic NG Supply

Supply via LNG Regasification Terminals

Inflexible

Flexible 40

13

37 25

2011 2015 2020

To be contracted (5.5 GW)

76 (15.1 GW) 59

(10.7 GW) 38

(6.7 GW)

DEMAND PCS 9.400 kcal/m³

4969

936

9

9 Northern Region

Other Regions

55

78

102

SUPPLY

11 4

8 3

6

13

Refineries

NGPU

Fertilizers 61

32

16

39

25

18

2011 2015 2020

Million m3/d

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21 Source: Bloomberg

WTI Futures x S&P 500 x Fed Rates (%)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

18/7

/00

18/7

/01

18/7

/02

18/7

/03

18/7

/04

18/7

/05

18/7

/06

18/7

/07

18/7

/08

18/7

/09

18/7

/10

18/7

/11

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

S&P 500 WTI FED Target Rate

OIL PRICES: DRIVEN SOLELY BY FUNDAMENTALS?

Open positions in Nymex’s oil futures (# of contracts) Factors driving

physical oil markets: Supply/demand outlook Key markets’ inventories OPEC’s spare capacity

Factors driving oil futures: Expectations on physical

markets’ outlook Liquidity conditions Macroeconomic issues Portfolio managers’

strategies

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