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@deanmalmgren 2012 february chicago chapter asa

20120221 asa chicago_chapter

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Page 1: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

@deanmalmgren

2012 februarychicago chapter asa

Page 2: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

@deanmalmgren

2012 februarychicago chapter asa

data-driventhe love child of statistics & design

Page 3: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

analytics

consulting design

Page 4: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

data-driven innovation

data appraisaldiscovering value from shipwrecked data

what data do you have?

how can it be used?

market research and internal testingfinding the Jeremy Lin on your bench

what is feasible?

what adds value?

prototype developmentfrom blueprints to concept car

how will it work?

how will it be used?

product implementation scalable solutions, understandable by humans

how will it be maintained?

what are technology limitations?

Page 5: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

data appraisaldiscovering value from shipwrecked data

market research and internal testingfinding the Jeremy Lin on your bench

prototype developmentfrom blueprints to concept car

product implementation scalable solutions, understandable by humans

implementation of prototype vastly expanded market size

data-driven interface designglobal information services provider

rapidly developed customer-facing prototype interface for market testing

Page 6: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

data appraisaldiscovering value from shipwrecked data

market research and internal testingfinding the Jeremy Lin on your bench

prototype developmentfrom blueprints to concept car

product implementation scalable solutions, understandable by humans

designed analytics engine to semi-automatically classify documents for legal relevance

analytics engine decreased costs by >70%, dramatically changing their business model

data-driven analytics engineglobal e-discovery solutions provider

Page 7: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

data appraisaldiscovering value from shipwrecked data

market research and internal testingfinding the Jeremy Lin on your bench

prototype developmentfrom blueprints to concept car

product implementation scalable solutions, understandable by humans

data-driven change managementprocter & gamble

developed methodology for identifying optimal cohort of change ambassadors

models predict increased speed of adoption by 50% compared to managerʼs picks

Page 8: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

change management in a nutshell

Page 9: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

change management in a nutshell

Page 10: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

change management in a nutshell

Page 11: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

change management in a nutshell

not enough change

Page 12: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

change management in a nutshell

not enough change“ ”do not trust “ ”

Page 13: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

build trust with “organic” ambassador picks

Page 14: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

social network survey

build trust with “organic” ambassador picks

Page 15: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

social network survey

build trust with “organic” ambassador picks

contagion modeling

Page 16: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

social network survey

build trust with “organic” ambassador picks

contagion modelingambassador team optimization

Page 17: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

social network surveyidentify mavens and fill in the gaps

Page 18: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

social network surveyidentify mavens and fill in the gaps

Page 19: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

social network surveyidentify mavens and fill in the gaps

Page 20: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

social network surveyidentify mavens and fill in the gaps

ask respondents who they trust

Page 21: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

social network surveyidentify mavens and fill in the gaps

ask respondents who they trust

Page 22: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

social network surveyidentify mavens and fill in the gaps

ask respondents who they trust

Page 23: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

social network surveyidentify mavens and fill in the gaps

ask respondents who they trust

Page 24: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

social network surveyidentify mavens and fill in the gaps

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

ask respondents who they trust

Page 25: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

social network surveyidentify mavens and fill in the gaps

ask respondents who they trust

use node attributes to estimate connectivity

Page 26: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

social network surveyidentify mavens and fill in the gaps

ask respondents who they trust

use node attributes to estimate connectivity

Page 27: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

susceptible

infected

contagion modelingsi models, modified by iphone, averaged like ipcc

Page 28: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

susceptible

infected

contagion modelingsi models, modified by iphone, averaged like ipcc

prob

abili

ty in

fect

ed0 1

0

1

fraction of infected neighbors

Page 29: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

susceptible

infected

contagion modelingsi models, modified by iphone, averaged like ipcc

Page 30: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

susceptible

infected

contagion modelingsi models, modified by iphone, averaged like ipcc

Page 31: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

susceptible

infected

contagion modelingsi models, modified by iphone, averaged like ipcc

fraction of infected neighbors

prob

abili

ty in

fect

ed0 1

0

1

Page 32: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

susceptible

infected

contagion modelingsi models, modified by iphone, averaged like ipcc

fraction of infected neighbors

prob

abili

ty in

fect

ed0 1

0

1

Page 33: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

susceptible

infected

contagion modelingsi models, modified by iphone, averaged like ipcc

fraction of infected neighbors

prob

abili

ty in

fect

ed0 1

0

1

uncertain about curve shape?use lots of models and simulations!

Page 34: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

ambassador team optimizationnavigate rough energy landscape

Page 35: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

ambassador team optimizationnavigate rough energy landscape

time

num

ber i

nfec

ted

0 !0

n

Page 36: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

ambassador team optimizationnavigate rough energy landscape

time

num

ber i

nfec

ted

0 !0

n

Page 37: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

ambassador team optimizationnavigate rough energy landscape

time

num

ber i

nfec

ted

0 !0

n

Page 38: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

ambassador team optimizationnavigate rough energy landscape

time

num

ber i

nfec

ted

0 !0

n

Page 39: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

ambassador team optimizationnavigate rough energy landscape

time

num

ber i

nfec

ted

0 !0

n

Page 40: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

ambassador team optimizationnavigate rough energy landscape

time

num

ber i

nfec

ted

0 !0

n

250064( ( simulated

annealing=

Page 41: 20120221 asa chicago_chapter

chicago chapter asa | @deanmalmgren | 2012 february

data appraisaldiscovering value from shipwrecked data

market research and internal testingfinding the Jeremy Lin on your bench

prototype developmentfrom blueprints to concept car

product implementation scalable solutions, understandable by humans

data-driven change managementprocter & gamble

http://acme.datascopeanalytics.com