What is the Mobility of the Future?

January 2012

Nicolas Meilhan

Principal Consultant, Frost & Sullivan, July 2014

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7 major challenges to be taken into account to develop the mobility of the future 2 global challenges - CO2 emissions & end of cheap oil, 3 local challenges – pollution,

congestion & parking and 2 economic challenges - unemployment & trade deficit

2 Global Challenges

End of cheap oil

3 Local Challenges

Pollution Congestion Parking

CO2 emissions

2 Economic Challenges – rising unemployment & trade deficit

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Is the private electric car the urban mobility of the future? We thought the issue was that the private car used gasoline or diesel and we made it electric.

What if the issue was that it is private?

Space occupied in a city street to transport 60 persons

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Is the private car the mobility of the future? If these idiots would just take the bus, I could be home by now...

A 10% increase in the occupancy rate of our cars would be

sufficient to get rid of most of traffic jams

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Transport = Private Vehicle

• Freedom

• Convenience

• Status

• Progress

• No Real Alternative

Gen Y

Population

Growth

Energy /

Natural

Resources Urbanisation

Technology/

Connectivity

Social

Responsibility

• New Vehicles : Electric bikes,

Electric cars, Electric scooters

• New Business Models

Vehicle sharing, Ride sharing

• New technologies

Internet, Geolocalisation,

Smartphones

Pollution

Congestion

Globalisation

Virtualisation

Transport = Shared Mobility

“People will always change for a better alternative”

Paradigm Shift from Private Transport to Shared Mobility

More than 75% of people live in a urban area where space is limited We can’t afford any more to all drive our private vehicle on our own when alternatives exists

The urban mobility of the future will be shared or won’t be

Source: Frost & Sullivan

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What is the most efficient transport mode in a city? Whether it is on the energy side or the physical footprint, the most efficient transport mode

in a city where space is limited are bus, scooters & bikes

Car

1,4 t 10 m2 1,3 person

>1000 kg & 7.7 m2 per person

Quadricycle

500 kg 3 m2 1 person

500 kg & 3 m2 per person

Bus

12 t 42 m2 30 persons

430 kg & 1.4 m2 per person

Scooter

125 kg 2 m2 1 person

125 kg & 2 m2 per person

Electric bike

20 kg 1 m2 1 person

20 kg & 1 m2 per person

Bike

10 kg 1 m2 1 person

10 kg & 1 m2 per person

Source: Frost & Sullivan, PREDIT, 6t - Bureau de Recherche. Average speed in European cities (km/h)

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15

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18 19 17

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To address congestion & parking issue, we have 4 solutions More roads, smaller vehicles, more people per car or less cars

More Roads Smaller Vehicles

Less Cars More People per Car

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Vehicle sharing - car, scooter & bike - is a great alternative for urban mobility... ... all the more as private car use is constrained in cities

Electric Conventional

Bike

Car

Bike Sharing Electric Bike Sharing

Electric Car Sharing Peer-to-peer Car Sharing

Scooter

Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Ride sharing – taxi, public transport & car pooling - is also a great alternative The combination of new technologies – internet, geo-localisation & smart phones – made those

alternatives much more user friendly then they used to be 15 years ago

“Planned”

Car pooling

Instant – Short

Distance Planned – Long

Distance

Higher Price per

KM

Lower Price per

KM

“On Demand”

Car pooling

“Taxi” Services Public Transport

“Transportation

Network

Companies”

Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Smart Parking

Ride Sharing

Taxi Hailing

Urban Logistics

Car Sharing

Small cars

Best Practice - Daimler is very active across the shared mobility field Leverages carsharing, integrated mobility, strategic investments in parking, ridesharing, taxis,

and urban couriers. Additional services planned to grow to €800 mn of revenues by 2020

…several more investments to

follow

Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Small cars are not an option anymore - it is a necessity to preserve our mobility While cheap oil availability is more and more constrained especially in Europe, it is high time to

develop small & light cars which are fuel efficient – 1l/100 km and affordable

Source: Manicore – Jean-Marc Jancovici, Gregory Launay

Liquid fuels production - 1870 à 2100 -

• A 800 kg hybrid-air car would have a 2 L/100 km fuel consumption

• A 600 kg range extended electric vehicle would have a 1L/100 km fuel consumption

Significantly reduce vehicle weight is the most efficient way to reduce transportation

energy consumption, which depends for 97% on oil

Pro

du

ctio

n in

bill

ion

s o

f o

il b

arr

els

pe

r ye

ar

Peugeot BB1 Rex

Hybrid Air

Fuel consumption of a car vs. weight and

energy efficiency

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The mobility of the future should also improve our trade balance 85% of the €65 bn trade deficit increase from 2004 to 2012 is due to rising oil & gas prices

(hence imports) as well as the decline of the French automotive industry

Source : http://lekiosque.finances.gouv.fr

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Energy

Manufacturing industry (excluding energy & automotive)

Automotive Industry

Agriculture

Trade balance degradation by

sector from 2004 to 2012 - € billions-

2

-9

-16

-41

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

Tra

de

ba

lan

ce

(€

bill

ion

s)

Tra

de

ba

lan

ce

de

gra

da

tio

n

(€ b

illio

ns)

Trade balance by sector from

2004 to 2012 - € billions-

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The mobility of the future should also create jobs & reduce global CO2 emissions Since 2012, 12 automotive assembly plant closed in Western Europe while 11 automotive

assembly plants opened in Eastern Europe where labour cost is lower but electricity dirtier

Labour cost

- Manufacturing industry, €/h -

5 €

10 €

15 €

20 €

25 €

30 €

35 €

40 €

45 €

Source : Coe – Rexecode, Eurostat, Inovev

Electricity production from coal - % of total electricity production in 2012 -

1 %

5 %

10 %

15 %

20 %

25 %

30 %

35 %

40 %

45 %

Source : Worldbank

Manufacturing the vehicle of the future in a country using coal as its main source for

electricity production – Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, Romania, Turkey or

Morocco – is not necessarily a good idea if we really care about climate change

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Is the driverless car the new mobility of the future after the electric car? If it is small, light, electric and shared, why not?

Drive and Let Drive Concept

Can be manually driven or self-

driven by the vehicle

Predetermined A-to-B Personal Mobility with Route Inputs

Ideally suitable for Personal

Rapid Transit (PRT)

Ideally suitable for urban commuters

and people with special mobility needs

Fully-automated vehicles hold the potential for fundamental rethinking of vehicle designs.

For instance, partially collapsible vehicles also save parking space when not in motion

Autonomous Adaptive Mobility Vehicles

Source: Frost & Sullivan; MIRA Ltd

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What is the mobility of the future? The car of the future will not have a driver - The driver of the future will not have a car!