Managing the introduction of electric vehicles into the car fleet of Scotland

Managing the Introduction of Electric Vehicles into the Car Fleet of ScotlandTwo spatial case studies

Anhui Metrology Delegation

Dr Craig Morton

23rd November 2016

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Structure of Presentation

Institute for Transport Studies FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT

1. Professional background

2. Brief overview of passenger transport demand in Great Britain

3. A transition to a Low Carbon Mobility System

4. Anticipated adoption of Electric Vehicles to service mobility needs

5. Case Study One: The effect of the London Congestion Charge on Hybrid Electric Vehicle adoption

6. Electric Vehicle strategy in Scotland

7. Case Study Two: The interaction between Electric Vehicle adoption and charging infrastructure

Professional Background

Education

2007: BA Economics (hons) University of Stirling

2008: MSc Ecological Economics University of Edinburgh

2013: PhD Human Geography University of Aberdeen

Employment

2015 to Present: Research Fellow with ClimateXChange and the University of Leeds

Research Interest

Spatial variation in transport and energy demand


The Transport System of Great Britain


1950 – 1990Transition away from public transport towards private cars

1990 – 2010Sustained use of cars to meet mobility needs

2010 – 2050Transition towards a low carbon mobility system

Source: Department for Transport – Transport Statistics Great Britain

Transition to Electric Vehicles: Technology Roadmap


2010 - 2050

• The transformation of Scotland’s car fleet will incorporate a series of powertrain technologies

• Powertrains will iteratively increase in the degree of electrification

• Internal combustion engine vehicles will see their market share gradually reduce

Source: New Automotive Innovation and Growth Team – An independent report on the future of the automotive industry in the UK

Transition to Electric Vehicles: Market Roadmap


2010 - 2030

• The market for Electric Vehicles will be stimulated by a number of interconnected factors

• These cover: vehicle supply consumer interest infrastructure deployment policy support

Source: Element Energy – Pathways to high penetration of Electric Vehicles


Case Study OneHybrid Electric Vehicle Uptake


Hybrid Electric Vehicles• HEVs have been available to purchase since 2001

• HEVs represent the most successful advanced propulsion system released to date

• As of 2014, over 186,000 HEVs are registered in the UK with over 9,000 present in Scotland

London Congestion Charge• Up to the end of 2012, newly purchased HEVs were exempt from the

London Congestion Charge (LCC)

• How did this exemption influence registrations of HEVs across the UK?

• What lessons does the HEV exemption from the LCC offer for Scotland’s proposal to introduce Clean Air Zones?


•Introduced in 2003, the LCC requires drivers to pay a fee to enter the charge zone

•The zone is in operation Mon-Fri 7:00-18:00

•The fee is currently set at £11.80 daily

•The zone has spatial characteristics with specified boundaries

•The LCC will likely generate a number of spatial effects over the transport system

•These effects are often considered in terms of:

• Modal shift• Emissions reductions• Congestion reductions

London Congestion Charge


•Categorise local authorities based on if they are:

• London boroughs• First order neighbours to Greater London• Second order neighbours to Greater London• Rest of UK

•Consider the registrations of HEVs (per ‘000 cars) across these four categorises

•London boroughs tend to have the highest levels of HEV registrations

•HEV registrations tend to decrease as distance from London increases

HEV Registrations Around London


High-High ClusterLondon

Low-Low ClusterHighlands

Southern Scotland North East England

WalesSouth West EnglandEast Anglia


Model Development• Other characteristics of London might be effecting the uptake of HEVs

therefore the increased levels of HEV ownership might not be due to the presence of the LCC

• Income levels• Education levels• Occurrence of company cars

• Having controlled for the effect of other area characteristics, does proximity to the LCC tend to increase HEV registrations?

• Socioeconomic Model – Use characteristics of the populace as explanatory variables alongside dummy variables to distinguish LCC proximity


Hybrid Electric Vehicles per ‘000

Aged 30-44 (%)

Mean Income (GBP)University Degree (%)

One Car (%)

Model SummaryLog-log OLS modelN = 373R2 = .764

Population Density

Company Cars per ‘000

Second Order Neighbour

First Order Neighbour

London Borough

Spatial Regression Models


Model Summary

Demographics Elasticity Estimates•1 % increase in populace with university degrees = 0.744% increase•1% increase in mean personal incomes = 0.840% increase•1% increase in population density = 0.095% increase•1% increase in company cars (per ‘000) = 0.397% increase

London Congestion Charge Influence•Second order neighbours of Greater London = 16.77% increase•First order neighbours to Greater London = 45.35% increase •London boroughs = 80.22% increase


Case Study TwoElectric Vehicle Adoption


2011 2012 2013 20140

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Scotland Wales England

EVs p

er T

hous

and

Cars

Background

•EVs were introduced into the mainstream automotive market in 2010

• The market has witnessed increasing levels of model diversification

•Scotland currently has lower levels of EV adoption compared to England but higher levels than Wales

•Rate variables utilised in the analysis

Transition to Electric Vehicles – Market Outlook


Market Outlook Displaying the potential adoption trajectory of Electric Vehicles in Scotland

Market DevelopmentDetailing alternation market development scenarios for Electric Vehicles in Scotland

Source: Transport Scotland – Switched on Scotland Source: Element Energy – Electric Vehicles in Scotland

Electric Vehicle Strategy in Scotland


• A Transition Framework was established in 2013 to guide the shift towards Electric Vehicles

• It contains a series of interlinked components

• Each component has a series of associated activities to manage the transition

Source: Transport Scotland – Switched on Scotland

Charging Point Plan


Source: Transport Scotland – Switched on Scotland

Empirical Research: Focus

• A spatial analysis of Electric Vehicle adoption • Explore the interaction which is present between the deployment of

charging points and the adoption of Electric Vehicles• Determine if spatial spillover exists regarding investment in charging

points• Consider the effect of ancillary area characteristics covering:

The socioeconomic characteristics of the populace The attributes of the existing car fleet



Spatial Spillover



North East

West MidlandsEast MidlandsLondon

LiverpoolManchesterLeedsLincolnshireWales

Low-Low ClustersRepresent regions which tend to display low values of EV uptake

High-High ClustersRepresent regions which tend to display high values of EV uptake

Spatial Regression Models


Electric Vehicles per ‘000

Mean Age (years)No Qualifications (%)

Mean Income (GBP)

Employed FT (%)

One Car (%)

HEVs per ‘000

Company Cars per ‘000

Spatial Lag of Chargepoints per ‘000

Chargepoints per ‘000Model SummaryLog-log OLS modelN = 373R2 = 0.523

Electric Vehicle Registration – Chargepoint Interaction

Correlation coefficient: .360 (p-value < .01)These two variables are significantly positively related to one another

Regression coefficient: .032 (p-value > .05)The presence of charging infrastructure within a local authority does not affect registrations of EVs

Spatial regression coefficient: .074 (p-value > .05)The presence of charging infrastructure surrounding a local authority does not affect registrations of EVs


Next Steps

• Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (HFCEVs) are expected to enter the mainstream market by 2020-2025

• How will HFCEVs interact with the rest of the car fleet?• Will early adopters of EVs be the early adopters of HFCEVs?• Will HFCEVs display EVs or compliment EVs? • What infrastructure will HFCEVs require?• How can the market for HFCEVs be stimulated?


Thank you for your attention

Craig [email protected]
