Dr Frans Cronje of the South African Institute of Race Relations - South Africa's next ten...

South Africa’s Next Ten Years:

The Time-Traveller Scenarios

Produced by the Centre for Risk Analysis – a product of the IRR.

-3,00%

-2,00%

-1,00%

0,00%

1,00%

2,00%

3,00%

4,00%

5,00%

6,00%

7,00%

8,00%

Tee

ns

1920

s

1934

-194

0

1946

-195

0

1950

s

1960

s

1970

s

1980

s

1990

s

2000

- 2

008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

100 years of economic growth

-2,00

-1,00

0,00

1,00

2,00

3,00

4,00

5,00

6,00

0,0

20,0

40,0

60,0

80,0

100,0

120,0

1994

-01-

01

1994

-08-

01

1995

-03-

01

1995

-10-

01

1996

-05-

01

1996

-12-

01

1997

-07-

01

1998

-02-

01

1998

-09-

01

1999

-04-

01

1999

-11-

01

2000

-06-

01

2001

-01-

01

2001

-08-

01

2002

-03-

01

2002

-10-

01

2003

-05-

01

2003

-12-

01

2004

-07-

01

2005

-02-

01

2005

-09-

01

2006

-04-

01

2006

-11-

01

2007

-06-

01

2008

-01-

01

2008

-08-

01

2009

-03-

01

2009

-10-

01

2010

-05-

01

2010

-12-

01

2011

-07-

01

2012

-02-

01

2012

-09-

01

2013

-04-

01

2013

-11-

01

RBLI vs GDP growth

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

2 000 000

4 000 000

6 000 000

8 000 000

10 000 000

12 000 000

Employed:Unemployed ratios

37,0%

38,0%

39,0%

40,0%

41,0%

42,0%

43,0%

44,0%

45,0%

46,0%

47,0%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Labour force absorption

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

12 600 000

12 800 000

13 000 000

13 200 000

13 400 000

13 600 000

13 800 000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Jobs and unemployment

Unemployment rate (expanded) Employed people

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000

2 000 000

2 500 000

3 000 000

3 500 000

15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64

Unemployment by age

Rate (expanded) Number (expanded)

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

2003 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Jobs by sector

Government Mining Manufacturing Fin

0

2 000 000

4 000 000

6 000 000

8 000 000

10 000 000

12 000 000

14 000 000

16 000 000

18 000 000

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

South Africa’s developmental policy model

Employed people Welfare recipients

0

2 000 000

4 000 000

6 000 000

8 000 000

10 000 000

12 000 000

14 000 000

16 000 000

0

1 000 000

2 000 000

3 000 000

4 000 000

5 000 000

6 000 000

7 000 000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 SWR

A better life for all

2001 2012 SWR 2001 SWR 2012

Number of people/LSM

Number of people getting grants

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Formalhouse

Shack Piped water Electricity Refuseremoval

Poverty

Living conditions and poverty

1994 2013

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

Formal houses

Shacks

Piped water

Electricity

Daily increase in households with services – post 1994

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Rent/mortgage > R5000/pm

Household income > R20 000/pm

Property valued over R1.5m

Medical insurance

Middle classes

White Black African

0,0%

5,0%

10,0%

15,0%

20,0%

25,0%

1950 1976 1994 2014

Changing structure of GDP

Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Finance

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

R 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10 11

Mat

ric

Mat

ric

pas

s

Un

iver

sity

pas

s

Mat

hs

50%

+

1st

year

s

Gra

du

ates

Deg

rees

BLM

E d

egre

es

Pre-school to post graduate

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

900 000

1 000 000

1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Enrolment in tertiary education

0 10 20 30 40 50

Business and management

Engineering

Law

Healthcare sciences

Social sciences

The astonishing racial transformation of higher education

Ratio white: black African South African 2012

Ratio white: black African South African 1991

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Electricity supply

Total capacity (MW) Demand at 4% growth Demand at 6% growth

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Opinion polls

Government performs 'well' Happy with service delivery

Confident of happy future

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Major protests and public violence

Incidents of public violence Major service delivery protests

0

2 000 000

4 000 000

6 000 000

8 000 000

10 000 000

12 000 000

14 000 000

16 000 000

Labour volatility

22

Increasingly closed, patronage driven political system

Free and open political system

Extensive economic policy reform process

Limited economic policy reform

ROCKY ROAD

WIDE ROAD

TOLL ROAD

NARROW ROAD

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

Economic futures

Wide/narrow road: realGDP growth

Wide/narrow road:unemployment rate

Rocky road: real GDPgrowth

Rocky road:unemployment rate

Toll road: real GDPgrowth

Toll road:unemployment rate

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024

Political futures

Wide road ANC

Wide road DA

Wide road RL

Narrow road ANC

Narrow road DA

Narrow road RL

Rocky road ANC

Rocky road DA

Rocky road RL

Toll road ANC

Toll road DA

Toll road RL

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