Upload
sabpp
View
292
Download
1
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Dr Frans Cronje of the South African Institute of Race Relations presented at the AGM 2014 of SABPP
Citation preview
South Africa’s Next Ten Years:
The Time-Traveller Scenarios
Produced by the Centre for Risk Analysis – a product of the IRR.
-3,00%
-2,00%
-1,00%
0,00%
1,00%
2,00%
3,00%
4,00%
5,00%
6,00%
7,00%
8,00%
Tee
ns
1920
s
1934
-194
0
1946
-195
0
1950
s
1960
s
1970
s
1980
s
1990
s
2000
- 2
008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
100 years of economic growth
-2,00
-1,00
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
120,0
1994
-01-
01
1994
-08-
01
1995
-03-
01
1995
-10-
01
1996
-05-
01
1996
-12-
01
1997
-07-
01
1998
-02-
01
1998
-09-
01
1999
-04-
01
1999
-11-
01
2000
-06-
01
2001
-01-
01
2001
-08-
01
2002
-03-
01
2002
-10-
01
2003
-05-
01
2003
-12-
01
2004
-07-
01
2005
-02-
01
2005
-09-
01
2006
-04-
01
2006
-11-
01
2007
-06-
01
2008
-01-
01
2008
-08-
01
2009
-03-
01
2009
-10-
01
2010
-05-
01
2010
-12-
01
2011
-07-
01
2012
-02-
01
2012
-09-
01
2013
-04-
01
2013
-11-
01
RBLI vs GDP growth
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
2 000 000
4 000 000
6 000 000
8 000 000
10 000 000
12 000 000
Employed:Unemployed ratios
37,0%
38,0%
39,0%
40,0%
41,0%
42,0%
43,0%
44,0%
45,0%
46,0%
47,0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Labour force absorption
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
12 600 000
12 800 000
13 000 000
13 200 000
13 400 000
13 600 000
13 800 000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Jobs and unemployment
Unemployment rate (expanded) Employed people
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
3 500 000
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64
Unemployment by age
Rate (expanded) Number (expanded)
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
2003 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Jobs by sector
Government Mining Manufacturing Fin
0
2 000 000
4 000 000
6 000 000
8 000 000
10 000 000
12 000 000
14 000 000
16 000 000
18 000 000
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
South Africa’s developmental policy model
Employed people Welfare recipients
0
2 000 000
4 000 000
6 000 000
8 000 000
10 000 000
12 000 000
14 000 000
16 000 000
0
1 000 000
2 000 000
3 000 000
4 000 000
5 000 000
6 000 000
7 000 000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 SWR
A better life for all
2001 2012 SWR 2001 SWR 2012
Number of people/LSM
Number of people getting grants
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Formalhouse
Shack Piped water Electricity Refuseremoval
Poverty
Living conditions and poverty
1994 2013
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Formal houses
Shacks
Piped water
Electricity
Daily increase in households with services – post 1994
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Rent/mortgage > R5000/pm
Household income > R20 000/pm
Property valued over R1.5m
Medical insurance
Middle classes
White Black African
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
1950 1976 1994 2014
Changing structure of GDP
Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Finance
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
R 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 11
Mat
ric
Mat
ric
pas
s
Un
iver
sity
pas
s
Mat
hs
50%
+
1st
year
s
Gra
du
ates
Deg
rees
BLM
E d
egre
es
Pre-school to post graduate
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
800 000
900 000
1 000 000
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Enrolment in tertiary education
0 10 20 30 40 50
Business and management
Engineering
Law
Healthcare sciences
Social sciences
The astonishing racial transformation of higher education
Ratio white: black African South African 2012
Ratio white: black African South African 1991
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Electricity supply
Total capacity (MW) Demand at 4% growth Demand at 6% growth
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Opinion polls
Government performs 'well' Happy with service delivery
Confident of happy future
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Major protests and public violence
Incidents of public violence Major service delivery protests
0
2 000 000
4 000 000
6 000 000
8 000 000
10 000 000
12 000 000
14 000 000
16 000 000
Labour volatility
22
Increasingly closed, patronage driven political system
Free and open political system
Extensive economic policy reform process
Limited economic policy reform
ROCKY ROAD
WIDE ROAD
TOLL ROAD
NARROW ROAD
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
Economic futures
Wide/narrow road: realGDP growth
Wide/narrow road:unemployment rate
Rocky road: real GDPgrowth
Rocky road:unemployment rate
Toll road: real GDPgrowth
Toll road:unemployment rate
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024
Political futures
Wide road ANC
Wide road DA
Wide road RL
Narrow road ANC
Narrow road DA
Narrow road RL
Rocky road ANC
Rocky road DA
Rocky road RL
Toll road ANC
Toll road DA
Toll road RL
Available in
Exclusive
Books