David Perez of Convertro - What is Attribution at SIC2013

What is Attribution?

What is attribution?

• Marketing activities = marketing touch-points• Desire outcome = sale, subscription

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Does it work?

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"A lot of that is around being able to allocate our spend where it's most effective."

Will it really change my decisions?

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• Google AdWords Keyword: Job Positing Sites

• Last click attribution: CPA $378 & ROI -84%

• Algorithmic attribution: CPA $28 & ROI +229%

A simple customer path

Laptop Search

Inadequate Attribution Models

Sale!

o Last-click: All exposures, except Coupon Site, assigned no value

o Last-device: TV, Mobile, Tablet, Desktop exposures assigned no value

o Digital-Media only: TV in this case, assigned no value

TV Commercial Mobile Search Tablet Website Desktop Website

Laptop WebsiteLaptop Coupon Site

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Complexity – Offline Tracking

• Offline Marketing spend & In-Store Sales

Online Marketing

Touch point35% Spend

User Visits Website.com

User Closes Online 35% Sales

= Tracking = Missing

In-Store Sales& Phone Orders

65% Sales

TVDirect Mail

PrintRadio

65% Spend

Complexity – Media Fragmentation

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Households have 5.7 Internet Connected Devices on average1

1 Source: https://www.npd.com/wps/portal/npd/us/news/press-releases/internet-connected-devices-surpass-half-a-billion-in-u-s-homes-according-to-the-npd-group/

Complexity – Multi Device

Case Study: Cross-device tracking, Indochino

Problem: Unsure if mobile campaigns were producing results

Result: Quantified how mobile campaigns were driving desktop sales

1. Discovered that 76% of multi-device users were switching from mobile to desktop before converting

2. Optimized mobile based on overall results

“When we initially decided to implement this, we were looking forward to improving the quality of our data, which we certainly did. The additional reporting and device data was a welcomed bonus! ”  

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Complexity – Cookie Deletion

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Sweepers

Blockers

GIGO Problem

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High Quality Data = Solid Foundation

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Fixing GIGO Problem

Fixing GIGO - Cookies 1st vs. 3rd Party

• Third-party cookie is usually set by an analytics vendor.

• First-party cookie is set in-house.• First Party Cookies are regarded as the

most reliable method to measure visitor activity Source: http://www.ogilvydma.com/2011/03/glossary-ana

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• 3rd Party Cookies subject to 30% Greater Cookie Deletion

1st Party Cookies

3rd Party Cookies

Fixing GIGO -3rd Party Cookies Bad

Fixing GIGO – Use 1st Party Cookies

• Make sure your attribution solution uses: JavaScript tag that serves a 1st party

cookie on your site 1st Party View Pixel to track display

impressions

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Fixing GIGO - Device Fragmentation

• Email Address = The New Cookie…

• User ID = The New Cookie

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Fixing GIGO – User ID Solution

PII PII

Name email User ID

Fredft@gm.com 6805

User ID Device

6805

Laptop

PII

6805

iPad

View pixel

6805

iPhone

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Fixing GIGO – Cross Device 1st Party Data

1. Transaction – Get User ID

2. Login – Get User ID

3. ESP – Transactional Email – Get User ID

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Cross Device 2nd Party Data

• Convertro 2nd party client device mappings

• DoubleClick Android + G+ + Gmail

• Atlas Facebook data19

Solving Offline Tracking

• Offline Marketing spend & In-Store Sales

Online Marketing

Touch point35% Spend

User Visits Website.com

User Closes Online 35% Sales

= Tracking = Missing

In-Store Sales& Phone Orders

65% Sales

TVDirect Mail

PrintRadio

65% Spend

Offline Step 1 – Identify FileLeads file tied to PII

In-Store Sales, Catalog, Direct Mail, & Soon Print 1

Email Name Postal Address Order IDIn-Store Sale

John Doe3 1st Street, San Francisco, CA 94105 1111 $440

Jane Doe520 Powell Street, New York, NY, 10001 1112 $133

john@gmail.com 1113 $410 jane@gmail.com 1114 $640

Offline - Step 2 – Move File

Send file to LiveRamp

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Secure FTP

Email Name Postal Address Order IDIn-Store Sale

John Doe3 1st Street, San Francisco, CA 94105 1111 $440

Jane Doe520 Powell Street, New York, NY, 10001 1112 $133

john@gmail.com 1113 $410 jane@gmail.com 1114 $640

Offline - Step 3 – Activate

Associate purchase data with cookies

LiveRamp provides masked Walmart lead information to Convertro tied to cookie IDs

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Convertro Cookie ID Order ID In-Store Sale11212 1111 $440 12312 1112 $133 41928 1113 $410 123912 1114 $640

Offline - TV Method #1 – Set-top Box Fusion

• Use set-top box data to understand Brand commercial viewership

• Match set-top box data to look-a-like cookies

• Sync cookies w/ LiveRamp

• Import sources into Attribution Tool at user level

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• DR TV Lift (~90 minutes) Measure the pre-baseline site traffic before

a given spot and post-baseline

• TV Drag Effect (~1 week) Secondary method establishes a drag for

each daypart/day of week combination to determine the latent lift from TV

© Convertro, Inc. | Confidential and Proprietary

Offline - TV Method #2 (DR)

Offline - DR TV Lift

Offline - DR Visitor Histogram

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Offline - TV Drag Effect

Offline - TV Drag Effect

Problem: Where to profitable acquire customers on TV for online business

Result: TV works, but only on specific channels with specific creative

1. Reduced cost per spot by 48.8%2. Expanded its TV budget by 66.8%

Offline Case Study: Dollar Shave Club

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Attribution Model Evolution

• Single Click Rules Based - First click / Last Click

• Multi-Click Rules Based - U-Shape or Even Click

• Algorithmic Models31

Convertro Algoritm

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In Matrix Format (Example: Four Unique Paths)

Convs Total

10 1000

5 100

10 100

30 1000

Prob Conv

1%

5%

10%

3%

Org. PPC TV Email Disp.

1 0 1 1 0

0 1 1 0 0

1 0 0 0 1

0 1 1 1 0

Y Conversion & Frequency Counts of Paths

X

=1

.10 .20 .30 .10 .30Resulting Weightsi

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Convertro Algoritm

Advanced Modeling: Event Chaining

• Addresses repeat purchases and multiple steps in conversion funnel

• Attribute preceding events First conversion gets credit for the next conversion

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Advanced Modeling: Source Decay

• Estimate period over which source exposure effect decays over time

• Plot for views shows that < 25% of conversions occurred by end of 1 day

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Model Validation

• Randomly splitting user click trails into training and test sets (80/20 split)

• Train a set of models on the training set

• Then Run a prediction on the previously-unseen test sets (with the actual conversion events removed from the clicktrail).

Model Validation Results

Apply Cost Data

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"A lot of that is around being able to allocate our spend where it's most effective.”

Attribution + Cost = ROI, CPA

Optimizing - Cross-Channel Allocations • Determine the optimal spend against each marketing

channel to maximize the number of conversions

Optimizing - Sub-Channel Allocations

• Then determine optimal allocations at sub-channel level to maximize conversions

Optimizing - Tactical Allocations• Then determine optimal allocations at tactical level

(e.g. publisher) to maximize quotes

Automating Attribution

• Feed properly allocated conversion data into programmatic buying tools:

Bid Tools – Kenshoo, Marin, AdLense, etc.

DSPs – Media Math, X+1, etc. 42

Attribution Companies

• Adometry

• Convertro

• Google Analytics Premium

• Visual IQ

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Key Attribution Takeaways

• Be Holistic – Track online offline touch-points & events

• Avoid attribution solutions that rely on 3rd party cookies

• Leverage a User ID to track cross-device & have more persistent tracking

• Use algorithmic attribution model

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Key Attribution Takeaways

• Validate that your attribution model is accurate against your data

• Attribution data is useless without cost (need CPA & ROI)

• Feed attribution data into programmatic buying tools

• Determine optimal cross-channel spend allocations

• Determine what intra-channel optimizations need to be made

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NYC: 11 West 42nd StreetNew York, NY 10036

HQ: 1453 Third St PromenadeSanta Monica, CA 90401

(888)308-9896

perez@convertro.comwww.convertro.com

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Thank You!