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What is Attribution? This presentation will address the misconceptions about attribution solutions, and clarify how all-inclusive the term truly is. It will also cover how companies that implement proper attribution models can not only determine the most effective mediums in their campaigns, but can also establish behavior patterns in their consumers that will allow marketers to optimize their strategies, reallocate budgets as needed, and ultimately increase their ad spend to drive the highest possible ROI. The presentation will also include real world examples and stats that explain how these companies are benefiting from attribution.
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What is Attribution?
What is attribution?
• Marketing activities = marketing touch-points• Desire outcome = sale, subscription
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Does it work?
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"A lot of that is around being able to allocate our spend where it's most effective."
Will it really change my decisions?
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• Google AdWords Keyword: Job Positing Sites
• Last click attribution: CPA $378 & ROI -84%
• Algorithmic attribution: CPA $28 & ROI +229%
A simple customer path
Laptop Search
Inadequate Attribution Models
Sale!
o Last-click: All exposures, except Coupon Site, assigned no value
o Last-device: TV, Mobile, Tablet, Desktop exposures assigned no value
o Digital-Media only: TV in this case, assigned no value
TV Commercial Mobile Search Tablet Website Desktop Website
Laptop WebsiteLaptop Coupon Site
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Complexity – Offline Tracking
• Offline Marketing spend & In-Store Sales
Online Marketing
Touch point35% Spend
User Visits Website.com
User Closes Online 35% Sales
= Tracking = Missing
In-Store Sales& Phone Orders
65% Sales
TVDirect Mail
PrintRadio
65% Spend
Complexity – Media Fragmentation
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Households have 5.7 Internet Connected Devices on average1
1 Source: https://www.npd.com/wps/portal/npd/us/news/press-releases/internet-connected-devices-surpass-half-a-billion-in-u-s-homes-according-to-the-npd-group/
Complexity – Multi Device
Case Study: Cross-device tracking, Indochino
Problem: Unsure if mobile campaigns were producing results
Result: Quantified how mobile campaigns were driving desktop sales
1. Discovered that 76% of multi-device users were switching from mobile to desktop before converting
2. Optimized mobile based on overall results
“When we initially decided to implement this, we were looking forward to improving the quality of our data, which we certainly did. The additional reporting and device data was a welcomed bonus! ”
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Complexity – Cookie Deletion
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Sweepers
Blockers
GIGO Problem
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High Quality Data = Solid Foundation
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Fixing GIGO Problem
Fixing GIGO - Cookies 1st vs. 3rd Party
• Third-party cookie is usually set by an analytics vendor.
• First-party cookie is set in-house.• First Party Cookies are regarded as the
most reliable method to measure visitor activity Source: http://www.ogilvydma.com/2011/03/glossary-ana
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• 3rd Party Cookies subject to 30% Greater Cookie Deletion
1st Party Cookies
3rd Party Cookies
Fixing GIGO -3rd Party Cookies Bad
Fixing GIGO – Use 1st Party Cookies
• Make sure your attribution solution uses: JavaScript tag that serves a 1st party
cookie on your site 1st Party View Pixel to track display
impressions
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Fixing GIGO - Device Fragmentation
• Email Address = The New Cookie…
• User ID = The New Cookie
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Fixing GIGO – User ID Solution
PII PII
Name email User ID
[email protected] 6805
User ID Device
6805
Laptop
PII
6805
iPad
View pixel
6805
iPhone
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Fixing GIGO – Cross Device 1st Party Data
1. Transaction – Get User ID
2. Login – Get User ID
3. ESP – Transactional Email – Get User ID
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Cross Device 2nd Party Data
• Convertro 2nd party client device mappings
• DoubleClick Android + G+ + Gmail
• Atlas Facebook data19
Solving Offline Tracking
• Offline Marketing spend & In-Store Sales
Online Marketing
Touch point35% Spend
User Visits Website.com
User Closes Online 35% Sales
= Tracking = Missing
In-Store Sales& Phone Orders
65% Sales
TVDirect Mail
PrintRadio
65% Spend
Offline Step 1 – Identify FileLeads file tied to PII
In-Store Sales, Catalog, Direct Mail, & Soon Print 1
Email Name Postal Address Order IDIn-Store Sale
John Doe3 1st Street, San Francisco, CA 94105 1111 $440
Jane Doe520 Powell Street, New York, NY, 10001 1112 $133
[email protected] 1113 $410 [email protected] 1114 $640
Offline - Step 2 – Move File
Send file to LiveRamp
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Secure FTP
Email Name Postal Address Order IDIn-Store Sale
John Doe3 1st Street, San Francisco, CA 94105 1111 $440
Jane Doe520 Powell Street, New York, NY, 10001 1112 $133
[email protected] 1113 $410 [email protected] 1114 $640
Offline - Step 3 – Activate
Associate purchase data with cookies
LiveRamp provides masked Walmart lead information to Convertro tied to cookie IDs
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Convertro Cookie ID Order ID In-Store Sale11212 1111 $440 12312 1112 $133 41928 1113 $410 123912 1114 $640
Offline - TV Method #1 – Set-top Box Fusion
• Use set-top box data to understand Brand commercial viewership
• Match set-top box data to look-a-like cookies
• Sync cookies w/ LiveRamp
• Import sources into Attribution Tool at user level
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• DR TV Lift (~90 minutes) Measure the pre-baseline site traffic before
a given spot and post-baseline
• TV Drag Effect (~1 week) Secondary method establishes a drag for
each daypart/day of week combination to determine the latent lift from TV
© Convertro, Inc. | Confidential and Proprietary
Offline - TV Method #2 (DR)
Offline - DR TV Lift
Offline - DR Visitor Histogram
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Offline - TV Drag Effect
Offline - TV Drag Effect
Problem: Where to profitable acquire customers on TV for online business
Result: TV works, but only on specific channels with specific creative
1. Reduced cost per spot by 48.8%2. Expanded its TV budget by 66.8%
Offline Case Study: Dollar Shave Club
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Attribution Model Evolution
• Single Click Rules Based - First click / Last Click
• Multi-Click Rules Based - U-Shape or Even Click
• Algorithmic Models31
Convertro Algoritm
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In Matrix Format (Example: Four Unique Paths)
Convs Total
10 1000
5 100
10 100
30 1000
Prob Conv
1%
5%
10%
3%
Org. PPC TV Email Disp.
1 0 1 1 0
0 1 1 0 0
1 0 0 0 1
0 1 1 1 0
Y Conversion & Frequency Counts of Paths
X
=1
.10 .20 .30 .10 .30Resulting Weightsi
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Convertro Algoritm
Advanced Modeling: Event Chaining
• Addresses repeat purchases and multiple steps in conversion funnel
• Attribute preceding events First conversion gets credit for the next conversion
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Advanced Modeling: Source Decay
• Estimate period over which source exposure effect decays over time
• Plot for views shows that < 25% of conversions occurred by end of 1 day
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Model Validation
• Randomly splitting user click trails into training and test sets (80/20 split)
• Train a set of models on the training set
• Then Run a prediction on the previously-unseen test sets (with the actual conversion events removed from the clicktrail).
Model Validation Results
Apply Cost Data
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"A lot of that is around being able to allocate our spend where it's most effective.”
Attribution + Cost = ROI, CPA
Optimizing - Cross-Channel Allocations • Determine the optimal spend against each marketing
channel to maximize the number of conversions
Optimizing - Sub-Channel Allocations
• Then determine optimal allocations at sub-channel level to maximize conversions
Optimizing - Tactical Allocations• Then determine optimal allocations at tactical level
(e.g. publisher) to maximize quotes
Automating Attribution
• Feed properly allocated conversion data into programmatic buying tools:
Bid Tools – Kenshoo, Marin, AdLense, etc.
DSPs – Media Math, X+1, etc. 42
Attribution Companies
• Adometry
• Convertro
• Google Analytics Premium
• Visual IQ
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Key Attribution Takeaways
• Be Holistic – Track online offline touch-points & events
• Avoid attribution solutions that rely on 3rd party cookies
• Leverage a User ID to track cross-device & have more persistent tracking
• Use algorithmic attribution model
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Key Attribution Takeaways
• Validate that your attribution model is accurate against your data
• Attribution data is useless without cost (need CPA & ROI)
• Feed attribution data into programmatic buying tools
• Determine optimal cross-channel spend allocations
• Determine what intra-channel optimizations need to be made
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HQ: 1453 Third St PromenadeSanta Monica, CA 90401
(888)308-9896
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Thank You!
