View
67
Download
3
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
Corn, Cattle and ConfusionCorn, Cattle and ConfusionTim Petry – Livestock Economistwww.ndsu.edu/livestockeconomicsNovember 6, 2012
Photo courtesy of Judy Jacobson, Watford City
Corn-Cattle-Confusion.ppt
NOV FC vs DEC CORN
All Feeder Livestock AffectedAll Feeder Livestock Affected
Livestock Marketing Information Center; Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES500-600 Pounds, Weekly
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2006-10
2011
2012
C-P-5411/05/12
MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES700-800 Pounds, Weekly
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2006-10
2011
2012
C-P-4911/05/12
H-P-0111/05/12
FEEDER PIG PRICES40 Pounds, Weekly
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
JAN
APRJU
LOCT
$ Per Head
Avg.2006-10
2011
2012
FEEDER LAMB PRICES3-Market Average; CO, TX & SD; Weekly
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2006-10
2011
2012
S-P-0610/30/12
Western SD – Black HillsWestern SD – Black Hills
Eastern SD – Yellow HillsEastern SD – Yellow Hills
BEEF COW SLAUGHTERFederally Inspected, Weekly
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
JAN
APRJU
LOCT
Thou. Head
Avg.2006-10
2011
2012C-S-34
11/02/12
DAIRY COW INVENTORYUS Total, Monthly
9070
9120
9170
9220
9270
9320
JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV
Thou Head
Avg.2006-010
2011
2012
10/19/12Livestock Marketing Information Center, Data Source: USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA/NASS
HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS
July 1, U.S.
3
4
5
6
7
1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Mil. Head
C-N-3707/20/12
JULY 1 FEEDER CATTLE SUPPLIESResidual, Outside Feedlots, U.S.
30
35
40
45
50
55
1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Mil. Head
C-N-3207/20/12
-3.2%
BROILER EGGS SETWeekly
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
210
215
220
JAN
APRJU
LOCT
Mil. Eggs
Avg.2006-10
2011
2012P-S-10
11/01/12
Livestock Marketing Information Center, Data Source: USDA-NASS
HOG SLAUGHTERFederally Inspected, Weekly
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
JAN
APRJU
LOCT
Thou. Head
Avg.2006-10
2011
2012
H-S-0511/02/12
BARROW AND GILT PRICESIowa - So. Minnesota, Carcass Base Price, Weekly
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
JAN
APRJU
LOCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2006-10
2011
2012
2013Futures
H-P-0911/05/12
BROILER PRICES12-City Composite, Weekly
68
73
78
83
88
93
98
JAN
APRJU
LOCT
Cents Per Pound
Avg.2006-10
2011
2012
P-P-0111/05/12
CLASS III MILK PRICESFMMO, Monthly
12.00
13.00
14.00
15.00
16.00
17.00
18.00
19.00
20.00
21.00
22.00
23.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$ Per Pound
Avg.2006-10
2011
2012
11/02/12
Livestock Marketing Information Center, Data Source: USDA-AMS, Dairy Market News
MED. FRAME #1 STEER CALF PRICES550-600 Pounds, N.D., Weekly
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
JAN APR JUL OCT
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES750-800 Pounds, N.D., Weekly
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
JAN APR JUL OCT
200720082009201020112012Fut 2012Fut 2013
SF_LS796Sioux Falls, SD Nov 2, 2012 USDA-ND Dept of Ag Market News
North Dakota Weekly Auction Summary - For the week ending Nov 3, 2012 Receipts: 12,564 Last Week 9,984 Last Year 12,056 Combined results of 3 auctions this week: Kist, Napoleon, and Stockmen’s. Compared to last weeks: Feeder steers 1.00 to 3.00 lower, except 600-650 lbs 4.00 to 5.00 lower. Feeder heifers under 600 lbs mostly steady, over 600 lbs 2.00 to 4.00 lower. Demand moderate to good this week. The feeder market came under pressure as CME Live Cattle contractshit a wall and stopped their advance with Dec closing the week at 125.42. Cash fed cattle traded steady to 1.00 lower at 126.00-127.00, leaving the cash market with a positive basis over the futures price.
Feeder Steers Medium and Large 1 Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price 6 320 320 176.00 176.00 97 352-393 364 184.00-207.00 195.03 151 404-446 426 173.00-195.00 184.30 477 456-498 479 163.50-177.50 168.67 94 451-483 458 175.00-185.00 181.39 Value Added 887 502-549 528 159.00-171.00 164.97 23 533 533 151.00 151.00 Fleshy 54 513 513 172.50 172.50 Value Added 1165 551-597 576 151.75-162.75 157.85 148 553-566 555 163.50-168.75 167.61 Value Added 885 601-649 620 147.50-157.25 153.32 Calves 50 601 601 163.00 163.00 Fancy 39 610 610 159.00 159.00 Value Added 552 650-698 671 144.50-155.25 150.93 Calves 82 705-728 712 146.00-149.00 148.11 165 704-740 723 145.50-152.00 148.57 Calves 82 750-791 766 137.00-146.50 144.21 20 772-794 783 140.50-143.00 141.36 Calves 14 833 833 145.25 145.25 Calves 178 853-897 877 134.50-145.50 143.19 26 891 891 128.25 128.25 Fleshy 30 903 903 136.50 136.50 48 963-993 980 127.75-134.50 129.58 59 961 961 138.25 138.25 Fancy
ww
w.a
g.nd
su.e
du/c
attl
edoc
s
10/15/12 550 lb steer, $1.63/lb ($896/hd)ADG 1.75 2.50 3.25
Gain 100 200 300 100 200 300 100 200 300
DOF 57 114 171 40 80 120 30 61 92
Vet 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Yard 11.4 22.8 34.2 8 16 24 6.2 12.3 18.5
Feed 81 161 263 65 136 212 55 120 188
Death 9.5 10.0 10.6 9.5 9.9 10.3 9.4 9.8 10.1
Int 8.91 18.69 29.64 6.18 12.88 20.15 4.72 9.80 15.27
LRP 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Misc 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
COG 1.39 1.20 1.22 1.18 1.02 .99 1.05 .91 .87
BE 1.59 1.52 1.49 1.56 1.47 1.40 1.54 1.43 1.36
date 12/11 2/6 4/4 11/24 1/3 2/12 11/4 12/15 1/15
Weight 650 750 850 650 750 850 650 750 850
Price 1.53 1.51 1.47 1.52 1.50 1.45 1.52 1.49 1.44
$/hd 985 1121 1237 978 1114 1220 978 1106 1212
Net -42 -7 -14 -27 +23 +39 -13 +39 +65
End of Rainbow for the Next Several Years
Questions?Questions?
Recommended