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Why you shouldn’t trust an early adopter Using tomorrow's consumers to create tomorrow's concepts. Too much new product research is a waste of money. because it talks to the wrong people. Not all consumers are equal - most consumers are followers…. Late Majority. Early Majority. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Why you shouldn’t trust an early adopter
Using tomorrow's consumers to create tomorrow's concepts
Too much new product research is a waste of money
because it talks to the wrong people
x_
- 2sd
LEADCONSUMERS
2.5% x_
x_
- sd x_
+ sd 16%34%34%13.5%Key Adopter Categories. Source: Rogers (1995) Diffusion of Innovations
EarlyAdopters
Innovators
Early Majority
Laggards
Late Majority
mass market followers
mass market followersmass market fo
llowers
Not all consumers are equal - most consumers are followers…
…so they are of little use in indicating where the market is heading
Followers’ opinions are based on those of others…
So, I need to talk to early adopters, right?Pr
oduc
t Ado
pter
s
EarlyMajority,
pragmatists
Late Majority,
conservatives
Innovators,enthusiasts
Time
Laggards,skeptics
Early Adopters,
visionaries
Well, yes, but…The adoption
“chasm”
Source: Moore, 1999
Talking to Early Adopters is not the final answer…
Early Adopters…
…all too often Early Abandoners Their interest in a new product is often a passing whim
- based primarily on its novelty value- once the novelty has worn off so does their interest
For this reason Early Adopters can be as much Fad Creators as they can be Trend Creators
Is there a better definition of the elusive ‘Lead Consumer’?
a few key consumers drive diffusion…a special kind of early adopter: Connectors
A step in the right direction:
Connectors
Connected early adopters
Hubs of social networks
Gatekeepers to product diffusion
Connect you to your mass market
But this is still not enough…..
It takes more than a curiosity in new things and the connectedness to spread new ideas before an individual can truly be considered influential in any long-term, meaningful way…
…a way that will generate and sustain long-term growth prospects for new ideas.
What’s still missing?
2 things…
1. New Consumers Rule OK
The 5 Key Pillars of New Consumerism
1. They value Authenticity and Originality in all that they buy and experience
2. They are well Informed and hugely Involved in the products, services and brands that they buy
3. They are Individualistic – they do things “my way” – and increasingly demand companies do too
4. They are Time Poor and value anything that saves them time
5. They are Socially Responsible – and exercise their ethical awareness via their product and brand choices
These traits can be measured at an individual level
2. Category Matters
Finding the Future Shapers in a category
Involved in Involved in CategoryCategory
EarlyEarlyAdopterAdopter
ConnectorConnector
NewNewConsumerConsumer
Future Shapers: 10% of the market
Unconnected Laggards
New Consumers(Informed, Active)
(Uninformed, Passive)Old Consumers
Future Shapers
Future Makers
Today Consumers
Yesterday Consumers
Yesteryear Consumers
Connected Early Adopters
The hierarchical model of Future Influence: developed category by category
10%
20%
40%
20%
10%
FutureView in NPD… who to involve when
Future Shapers
Future Makers
Today Consumers
Yesterday Consumers
Yesteryear Consumers
Qualitative Quantitative
Creation Development Testing
Future Shaper Panels
General Consumer
Panels
Purpose
Method
Resource
Idea Generation and Development:Forget ‘respondents’ and think ‘participants’
Their knowledge of and involvement with products and brands, their acceptance of change, means they are great Idea Generators - don’t limit their role to evaluation Future
Shapersmake great participants!
Great for breaking through the inertia and familiarity that surround established brands and stifle great innovation
Future Shapers are not so blinkered!
Build an ongoing dialogue with Future Shapers to keep abreast of what’s happening in their world - what’s hot and what’s not!
Inspiration Panels offer a dedicated insight resource
Idea Generation and Development:The Consumer Genesis Process Engage:
Treat participants as intelligent equals – engage them in the task
Consumer Consultants
Working with Future Shapers to build winning ideas
Spark! Bring them together to spark
off one another Identify Issues and build
powerful Ideas
Incubate: On-the-spot brainstorming with
strangers doesn’t work Incubating ideas in own time,
own place, with peers DOES
Case Study: Just Juice Bubbles
Just Juice a successful juice brand in NZ, but struggling to find exciting, meaningful innovation
Consumer groups commonly rejecting new ideas because… “that’s not my familiar Just Juice – please don’t change it”
An Inspiration Panel, made up of cold beverage Future Shapers uncovers opportunity for new product idea – Future Shapers are already mixing Just Juice and lemonade themselves in an effort to make a “personalised, healthy alternative CSD”
Concept of Just Juice Bubbles was born (50:50 Juice:Lemonade mix)
- Given an ‘Okay’ by Today Consumers in groups BUT generates real excitement amongst Future Shapers
- Subsequently shown to be a future-proofed idea in quantitative concept screening
Within three months of launch, JJ Bubbles has become the No.2 fruit-flavoured CSD in service
stations
Case Study: Hello, my name is “Frank” Frucor Beverages (part of Danone) very successful in Australasia, based on strong juice,
water and energy drink brands
But very weak in fizzies - require ground-breaking innovation to make an impact on the market
Consumer Genesis workshops with cold drinks Future Shapers found a viable path:
- An ‘adult only’ range (most fizzy brands very youth-focused)
- Simple, no-nonsense, tell it like it is brand values and personality (“frank” is the perfect description of this personality)
- A range of flavours that is “familiar, but with a twist”
- Not excessively sweet or sugary; light flavour and light sparkle
- Glass bottles, small serving size to emphasise ‘adultness’
The result… A very successful brand launch
Why you shouldn’t trust an early adopter
Using tomorrow's consumers to create tomorrow's concepts
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