Why you shouldn’t trust an early adopter

Using tomorrow's consumers to create tomorrow's concepts

Too much new product research is a waste of money

because it talks to the wrong people

x_

- 2sd

LEADCONSUMERS

2.5% x_

x_

- sd x_

+ sd 16%34%34%13.5%Key Adopter Categories. Source: Rogers (1995) Diffusion of Innovations

EarlyAdopters

Innovators

Early Majority

Laggards

Late Majority

mass market followers

mass market followersmass market fo

llowers

Not all consumers are equal - most consumers are followers…

…so they are of little use in indicating where the market is heading

Followers’ opinions are based on those of others…

So, I need to talk to early adopters, right?Pr

oduc

t Ado

pter

s

EarlyMajority,

pragmatists

Late Majority,

conservatives

Innovators,enthusiasts

Time

Laggards,skeptics

Early Adopters,

visionaries

Well, yes, but…The adoption

“chasm”

Source: Moore, 1999

Talking to Early Adopters is not the final answer…

Early Adopters…

…all too often Early Abandoners Their interest in a new product is often a passing whim

- based primarily on its novelty value- once the novelty has worn off so does their interest

For this reason Early Adopters can be as much Fad Creators as they can be Trend Creators

Is there a better definition of the elusive ‘Lead Consumer’?

a few key consumers drive diffusion…a special kind of early adopter: Connectors

A step in the right direction:

Connectors

Connected early adopters

Hubs of social networks

Gatekeepers to product diffusion

Connect you to your mass market

But this is still not enough…..

It takes more than a curiosity in new things and the connectedness to spread new ideas before an individual can truly be considered influential in any long-term, meaningful way…

…a way that will generate and sustain long-term growth prospects for new ideas.

What’s still missing?

2 things…

1. New Consumers Rule OK

The 5 Key Pillars of New Consumerism

1. They value Authenticity and Originality in all that they buy and experience

2. They are well Informed and hugely Involved in the products, services and brands that they buy

3. They are Individualistic – they do things “my way” – and increasingly demand companies do too

4. They are Time Poor and value anything that saves them time

5. They are Socially Responsible – and exercise their ethical awareness via their product and brand choices

These traits can be measured at an individual level

2. Category Matters

Finding the Future Shapers in a category

Involved in Involved in CategoryCategory

EarlyEarlyAdopterAdopter

ConnectorConnector

NewNewConsumerConsumer

Future Shapers: 10% of the market

Unconnected Laggards

New Consumers(Informed, Active)

(Uninformed, Passive)Old Consumers

Future Shapers

Future Makers

Today Consumers

Yesterday Consumers

Yesteryear Consumers

Connected Early Adopters

The hierarchical model of Future Influence: developed category by category

10%

20%

40%

20%

10%

FutureView in NPD… who to involve when

Future Shapers

Future Makers

Today Consumers

Yesterday Consumers

Yesteryear Consumers

Qualitative Quantitative

Creation Development Testing

Future Shaper Panels

General Consumer

Panels

Purpose

Method

Resource

Idea Generation and Development:Forget ‘respondents’ and think ‘participants’

Their knowledge of and involvement with products and brands, their acceptance of change, means they are great Idea Generators - don’t limit their role to evaluation Future

Shapersmake great participants!

Great for breaking through the inertia and familiarity that surround established brands and stifle great innovation

Future Shapers are not so blinkered!

Build an ongoing dialogue with Future Shapers to keep abreast of what’s happening in their world - what’s hot and what’s not!

Inspiration Panels offer a dedicated insight resource

Idea Generation and Development:The Consumer Genesis Process Engage:

Treat participants as intelligent equals – engage them in the task

Consumer Consultants

Working with Future Shapers to build winning ideas

Spark! Bring them together to spark

off one another Identify Issues and build

powerful Ideas

Incubate: On-the-spot brainstorming with

strangers doesn’t work Incubating ideas in own time,

own place, with peers DOES

Case Study: Just Juice Bubbles

Just Juice a successful juice brand in NZ, but struggling to find exciting, meaningful innovation

Consumer groups commonly rejecting new ideas because… “that’s not my familiar Just Juice – please don’t change it”

An Inspiration Panel, made up of cold beverage Future Shapers uncovers opportunity for new product idea – Future Shapers are already mixing Just Juice and lemonade themselves in an effort to make a “personalised, healthy alternative CSD”

Concept of Just Juice Bubbles was born (50:50 Juice:Lemonade mix)

- Given an ‘Okay’ by Today Consumers in groups BUT generates real excitement amongst Future Shapers

- Subsequently shown to be a future-proofed idea in quantitative concept screening

Within three months of launch, JJ Bubbles has become the No.2 fruit-flavoured CSD in service

stations

Case Study: Hello, my name is “Frank” Frucor Beverages (part of Danone) very successful in Australasia, based on strong juice,

water and energy drink brands

But very weak in fizzies - require ground-breaking innovation to make an impact on the market

Consumer Genesis workshops with cold drinks Future Shapers found a viable path:

- An ‘adult only’ range (most fizzy brands very youth-focused)

- Simple, no-nonsense, tell it like it is brand values and personality (“frank” is the perfect description of this personality)

- A range of flavours that is “familiar, but with a twist”

- Not excessively sweet or sugary; light flavour and light sparkle

- Glass bottles, small serving size to emphasise ‘adultness’

The result… A very successful brand launch

Why you shouldn’t trust an early adopter

Using tomorrow's consumers to create tomorrow's concepts