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THE ART OF THE POSSIBLE - RENEWABLE ENERGY IN ALBERTA
Presentation to the Climate Change Panel Sept 2015
Production Profile – Alberta’s Wind and Solar are a natural complement to each other
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1 5 9 13 17 21
Prod
uctio
n
Time of Day
Wind
Solar
3
AESO LTO – Low Growth (14% of energy)
AESO LTO – Transformation (29% of energy)
EDCA AESO – Phase 2 - Baseline
AESO – Phase 2 - Green
Power to Change – Business As Usual
Power to Change – Transition (26% of energy)
Power to Change – Transformation (41% of energy all RE)
Wind Vision – Scenario B (15% of capacity)
Wind Vision – Scenario C (23% of Capacity)
Wind Vision – Scenario A (10% of capacity) Brattle – Status Quo
Brattle – SGER 30/12+HYDRO (19% of energy)
Brattle – Renewable Target (32% of energy)
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Win
d an
d H
ydro
Cap
acity
(MW
) Scenarios for Wind, Hydro Capacity based on Recent Studies in the
Alberta Electricity Market
HIGH Scenario
MEDIUM Scenario
LOW Scenario
Note: Does not include solar, biomass, geothermal.
Renewable Energy Integration Tool Kit for the System Operator
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Decision Support Tools
Local curtailment
Flexible Resources
Training – grid simulations
Wind/Solar Power
Forecasting
Smart Grid technologies
Processes and Procedures
Energy Storage
Ramping Products (including Storage)
Sub-hourly Dispatch
Larger Balancing
Area
Geographic Diversity of
Wind Supply
Large amount of interties &
grid extensions
Demand Response
Curtailment of conventional
plants
Cross-border sub-hourly dispatch
Existing studies indicated need for: Dispatchable Resources, Peaking facilities, Firm RE, and Ramping Products
Integration Levels in Other Jurisdictions “The boundary of what is considered possible expands” – Wall Street Journal
5,7
8,8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
% o
f W
ind
Cap
acity
to T
otal
Gen
erat
ion
Cap
acity
Wind Generation Penetration Level (Ratio of installed wind capacity to total generation capacity)
2011 2014 2015
Data: 2011 – Alstom Grid/U.S. Department of Energy, 2011. All other data from individual website searches.
Highest wind integration ~42% by capacity. Most system operators are increasing wind integration levels since 2011 AESO now at 8.8% wind integration by capacity.
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Calgary
Edmonton
Lethbridge
Medicine Hat
Lloydminster
Fort McMurray
Grande Prairie
Alberta's Wind Resource Potential
Wind speed and wind distribution data provided by AWS Truepower, LLC at 80 m height. Capacity factor datagenerated assuming a representative IEC Class II turbine with an 80 m hub height, 2.3 MW rated capacityand 113 m rotor diameter. Transmission lines are approximate and based on public materials published byAESO and Altalink. Routes for proposed CTI projects may not be exactly as shown and are presented forreference only. Wind farm locations are approximate and based on public materials published by CanWEA.Base map data © Department of Natural Resources Canada. All rights reserved. Shaded relief map courtesyTom Patterson, US National Park Service.
0 50 100 150 200 25025
Kilometers
Net Capacity Factor
Existing Transmission500 kV HVDC
240 kV AC
Proposed CTI Projects500 kv AC
500 kV HVDC
240 kV AC
OtherRoads
Water
#* Wind Farms
Protected Areas
< 25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
> 50%
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