THE ART OF THE POSSIBLE - RENEWABLE ENERGY IN ALBERTA

Presentation to the Climate Change Panel Sept 2015

Production Profile – Alberta’s Wind and Solar are a natural complement to each other

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1 5 9 13 17 21

Prod

uctio

n

Time of Day

Wind

Solar

3

AESO LTO – Low Growth (14% of energy)

AESO LTO – Transformation (29% of energy)

EDCA AESO – Phase 2 - Baseline

AESO – Phase 2 - Green

Power to Change – Business As Usual

Power to Change – Transition (26% of energy)

Power to Change – Transformation (41% of energy all RE)

Wind Vision – Scenario B (15% of capacity)

Wind Vision – Scenario C (23% of Capacity)

Wind Vision – Scenario A (10% of capacity) Brattle – Status Quo

Brattle – SGER 30/12+HYDRO (19% of energy)

Brattle – Renewable Target (32% of energy)

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Win

d an

d H

ydro

Cap

acity

(MW

) Scenarios for Wind, Hydro Capacity based on Recent Studies in the

Alberta Electricity Market

HIGH Scenario

MEDIUM Scenario

LOW Scenario

Note: Does not include solar, biomass, geothermal.

Renewable Energy Integration Tool Kit for the System Operator

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Decision Support Tools

Local curtailment

Flexible Resources

Training – grid simulations

Wind/Solar Power

Forecasting

Smart Grid technologies

Processes and Procedures

Energy Storage

Ramping Products (including Storage)

Sub-hourly Dispatch

Larger Balancing

Area

Geographic Diversity of

Wind Supply

Large amount of interties &

grid extensions

Demand Response

Curtailment of conventional

plants

Cross-border sub-hourly dispatch

Existing studies indicated need for: Dispatchable Resources, Peaking facilities, Firm RE, and Ramping Products

Integration Levels in Other Jurisdictions “The boundary of what is considered possible expands” – Wall Street Journal

5,7

8,8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

% o

f W

ind

Cap

acity

to T

otal

Gen

erat

ion

Cap

acity

Wind Generation Penetration Level (Ratio of installed wind capacity to total generation capacity)

2011 2014 2015

Data: 2011 – Alstom Grid/U.S. Department of Energy, 2011. All other data from individual website searches.

Highest wind integration ~42% by capacity. Most system operators are increasing wind integration levels since 2011 AESO now at 8.8% wind integration by capacity.

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Calgary

Edmonton

Lethbridge

Medicine Hat

Lloydminster

Fort McMurray

Grande Prairie

Alberta's Wind Resource Potential

Wind speed and wind distribution data provided by AWS Truepower, LLC at 80 m height. Capacity factor datagenerated assuming a representative IEC Class II turbine with an 80 m hub height, 2.3 MW rated capacityand 113 m rotor diameter. Transmission lines are approximate and based on public materials published byAESO and Altalink. Routes for proposed CTI projects may not be exactly as shown and are presented forreference only. Wind farm locations are approximate and based on public materials published by CanWEA.Base map data © Department of Natural Resources Canada. All rights reserved. Shaded relief map courtesyTom Patterson, US National Park Service.

0 50 100 150 200 25025

Kilometers

Net Capacity Factor

Existing Transmission500 kV HVDC

240 kV AC

Proposed CTI Projects500 kv AC

500 kV HVDC

240 kV AC

OtherRoads

Water

#* Wind Farms

Protected Areas

< 25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

> 50%