STIR Workshop 4 February 16, 2011 Seamless Integration of Technology & Society for a Sustainable...

STIR Workshop 4February 16, 2011

Seamless Integration of Technology & Societyfor a Sustainable Future

Roop L. Mahajan

Tucker Chair Professor Director, ICTAS

Institute for Critical Technology and Applied Science

mahajanr@vt.edu

Introduction Major challenges facing humanity & a

sustainable future IMECE Panel Nov 2010, Vancouver

o Relevant questions

A winning strategy for a sustainable future Innovation

o Incremental & Black Swano Seamless integration of T &S

Concluding remarks

• Innovation- a key to solving humanity’s major problems

• Major problems –energy, water, .. are complex, require multiple perspectives

• IDR or integration of the sciences –physical, life, social-- key to solving these problems

Buds of creativity bloom at the intersections Bringing natural and social scientists together promotes self-reflection

necessary for generating solutions for a sustainable future Integration needs to be seamless –not adhoc

• My experience Education and research Rewarding, for me, for my students, for my institution, and for society

• Through seamless integration, we can build a SUSTAINBLE future

A few Nuggets

“The supreme reality of our time is the vulnerability of the planet.” - John F. Kennedy, June 28, 1963

President’s address before a Joint Session of the Dail and Seanad, Dublin, Ireland.

More true today than ever before.

What are our vulnerabilities?

Looking ahead

Top Ten problems of Humanity for next 50 years

1. Energy2. Water3. Food4. Environment5. Poverty6. Terrorism & War7. Disease8. Education9. Democracy10. Population

Richard E. Smalley , noted scientist and Nobel prize winner

Source: Energy and Nanotechnology Conference, Rice University, May 3, 2003

These problems are complex are challenging are interconnected require multiple

perspectives

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1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

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Africa

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2005

6.5 Billion

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Europe

N. America Africa

1

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6.5 Billion

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8.9 Billion

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Africa

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N. America

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Source: msd-energy-croatia.ppt

Demographics

40% of the world’s population is in the fast developingregions.

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GDP per capita (purchasing power parity)

Energy demand and GDP per capita (1980-2002)

As GDP increases, so does the demand for

energy

Prosperity, Energy Demand

Energy Gap 2050: 14 TW 2100: 34 TW 1 TW= 1,000 GW

How do we meet this gap? By building new power plants?

Building one 1-GW power plant/day will take 38 years !!

What is the impact on environment?

EIA Intl Energy Outlook 2004http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html

2100: 40-50 TW 2050: 25-30 TW2000: 13 TW

0.00

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World Energy Demandtotal

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Hoffert et al Nature 395, 883,1998; msd-energy-croatia.ppt

Who wants this?

Environmental

12001000 1400 1600 1800 2000

240

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280

300

320

340

360

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Year AD

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-- CO2

-- Global Mean Temp

Tipping points on temperature and CO2 level indicate urgency

J. R. Petit et al, Nature 399, 429, 1999 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001

http://www.ipcc.chN. Oreskes, Science 306, 1686, 2004

D. A. Stainforth et al, Nature 433, 403, 2005

Climate Change 2001: T he Scientific Basis, Fig 2.22

2010 Cancun Climate Summit29 Nov-Dec 10

Cancun Climate Change Conference agrees plan to cut carbon emissions

CLIMATE CHANGEHIGH HOPES, SLOW PROGRESS

However…

• Developing countries want to alleviate poverty and aspire to be Developed

– To sustain a >10% growth rate/yr, China is adding ~1 coal-fired power plant/week and has overtaken the US as the largest polluter

– India cannot sustain its ~8% growth rate/yr without an order of magnitude increase in power generation and industrial output and hence, Green House Gas (GHG) emissions

• Developed countries do not want to reduce GHG emissions fast enough as it will impact their already troubled economies

Clearly, we need new solutions• Economic growth

• Preserve our environment

Perhaps game changer technologies

Why not ?

We have a pretty good record

Bottom Line

Looking back

Imagine life at the dawn of the 20th century

• Radio, TV, computers, and the Internet did not exist

• No Facebook, Twitter

• No texting……… • The country was not electrified

• The first airplane flight was 3 years away

• The average life span was 46.3 (males), 48.3 (females) --mostly due to unclean water and poor sanitation.

The progress is nothing short of STUNNING!!

• A question:

Are there new technologies that can help us meet humanity’s major problems?

Looking Forward

YES

• High performance computing • Computer design tools for

buildings –complex system

Low cost, high efficiency PV’s **BatteriesBio-fuels—3rd gen, algae, helioculture Stealth turbine for wind power Smarter gridTraveling wave nuclear reactorHydrogen economyClean coal technologies

• Next industrial revolution• New phenomena, materials• Environmental issues

Technology Mix

• Cellular & molecular biology

Nano

Advanced EnergyTechnologies

HPC

**Game-changer TechnologiesStrategic Foresight: Navigating UncertaintyDr. Alexander Van de Putte; IE Business School Madrid, March 2010

Another question:

Has the technology story been an unqualified success?

However

Perhaps the correct answer is “ qualified yes”.

Gallop survey

“Using a scale of 1 to 10, 1 being ‘extremely displeased’ to 10 being ‘extremely pleased,’

if your son or daughter or other family member said he/she wanted to be an engineer/scientist,

how pleased would you be?”

9However, There is a perception that technology is “out of control” and that, too often, societies don’t have the ability to orchestrate a responsible development of powerful technologies that have the potential for huge economic development. Swierstra, T. and Rip, A., “Nano-ethics as NEST-ethics: patterns of moral argumentation about new and emerging science and technology”, Nanoethics (2007) 1:3–20; Published online: 5; April 2007, Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2007.

Qualified success

• This skepticism arises from a series of errors and resulting disasters DDT Genetically modified crops Chernobyl

The confidence of people in the power of technologies to solve problems and improve their quality of life has been undermined.

• On top of all this, public is not technically well-informed (NAE, NRC survey) Susceptible to misinformation A fear of the unknown

Rose, L., and W. E. Dugger, Jr. 2002. ITEA/Gallup Poll Reveals What Americans Think About Technology. Reston, VA: International Technology Education Association.

Humans are hunted by Nano-swarm

Emerging technologiesWarning bells

BBC News, July 11, 2004 Prince Charles on Nanotechnology

“Discovering the secrets of the Universe is one thing; ensuring that those secrets are used wisely and appropriately is quite another.”

“What exactly are the risks attached to each of the techniques under discussion, who will bear them, and who will be liable if and when real life fails to follow the rose-tinted script?”

“Grey Goo”

Emerging technologiesWarning bells

Emerging technologiesWarning bells

Our most powerful 21st-century technologies - robotics, genetic engineering, and nanotech - are threatening to make humans an endangered species. --Bill Joy, Wired Apr 2000

“Failing to understand the consequences of our inventions while we are in the rapture of discovery and innovation seems to be a common fault of scientists and technologists; we have long been driven by the overarching desire to know that is the nature of science’s quest, not stopping to notice that the progress to newer and more powerful technologies can take on a life of its own.”

Another view

Among some enthusiasts, however, attempts to halt the development of these technologies, until all the unanswered questions about the socio-ethical impact are unanswered, are considered unethical.

“Given nanotechnology’s extraordinary economic and social potential, it would be unethical, in my view, to attempt to halt scientific and technological progress in nanotechnology.

Nanotechnology offers the potential for improving people’s standard of living, healthcare, and nutrition; reducing or even eliminating pollution through clean production technologies; ……. …….even extending the length and quality of life through the repair or replacement of failing organs.

Given this fantastic potential, how can our attempt to harness nanotechnology’s power at the earliest opportunity—to alleviate many earthly ills– be anything other than ethical?’’

Philip J. Bond, US Under-Secretary of Commerce“Responsible nanotechnology development”, Swiss Workshop Dec 2004, p.7

Recap The problems facing humanity –Complex, multi-dimensional,

interconnected and have a degree of uncertainty A set of powerful technologies available However, there are challenges—Technological & Societal Need a winning strategy

innovative & Integrative (I & I)solutions and approaches

Our survival depends on I & I —literally.

Introduction

Human Spark

• Neanderthals and modern humans evolved from the same ancestors.

•Neanderthals left Africa and spread to Europe where they lived for about 200, 000 years before they became extinct.

• Those left behind successfully evolved to modern humans and occupied the planet.

The difference: Innovation

Winning Strategy Innovation

• Sources Inventor(s) –driven

End- User –Driven

Need-based Increasingly assuming more importance

• Linear vs game-changer Linear– cost reduction, incremental Game changer– paradigm shift, perhaps A Black Swan

On Innovation

Black Swan

A Black Swan is an event that has three characteristics;

it is an outlier it carries an extreme impact it has retrospective predictability.

"The Black Swan", Nassim Nicholas Taleb

On Innovation (cont’d)

• Recent research suggests that the most successful innovation occurs at the boundaries/interfaces

“Buds of creativity bloom at the intersections”mahajan

Why?

My experience

• AT&T Bell Labs: 1976-1991 Interdisciplinary research the norm Condensation soldering

IDR Team: Chemists, engineers, material scientists

My experience

• CU-Boulder: 1991-2006 2 IDR Centers

CAMPmodeo NSF I/UCRCo Engineers, scientists (physics, chemistry)o Highly successfulo Many patents, 2 companies spun off.

MEDICAo Engineers and doctors o Very creative solutionso A company spun off

My experience

• Virginia Tech: 2006-present ICTAS

o A major IDR instituteo Innovation is its creedo Black Swan Seminar Series

No power point presentations Café X Philosophers, engineers, scientists, Open to public but no systematic effort to reach out Cygnets

o Large impact researcho Highly successful

FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 20100

20000000

40000000

60000000

80000000

100000000

120000000

Expenditures and Awards

ExpendituresAwards

Recap again We need a healthy dose of innovation to solve humanity’s major

problems.

IDR an engine for innovation

Linear/incremental

Disruptive/game changer/black swan

Societal considerations

So far, I have talked about centers and my efforts on integrating engineering and the sciences--physical and life.

How about integrating societal considerations?

Many questions

The imperative of integrating ethical and societal impact in NSF Funding Proposals

Panel Session

IMECE November 16, 2010

Societal considerations

Q1 Why are ethical dimensions, especially societal impact, important for technological discoveries?

Q2. What are the consequences of including ethics and societal impact vs. excluding them from any research endeavor?

Q3. Why is public perception important to scientific research?

Q4. How does this inclusion of ethics and societal impact reflect on educational practices?

Q5. When is the appropriate time to integrate societal impact and ethics in research and technology innovation?

Q6. How do researchers go about integrating ethics and societal impact?

Societal considerations

First, some background information

Engineers and Humanists: stereotype perceptions

Societal considerations

“ …engineering discourse to be the product of Gradgrinds, constituted solely of facts and devoid of imagination and creativity.”

- humanists (not all)

“… humanistic discourse to be a form of endless babble that never answers the questions it poses..”

- engineers (some)

• Traditional engineering Creation and innovation Engineers harness the laws of nature to do something useful for society (different

mission than of basic science)

• Humanistic tradition Deep reflection, ethical management of knowledge, interpretation, and judgment

for enrichment of human life

A Common Objective: Contribute to the development and progress of the human being

Different forms of human intelligence but complimentary

These perceptions don’t hold water on examination.

Q5. When is the appropriate time to integrate societal impact and ethics in research and technology innovation?

• From post-conception (or in some cases from conception itself ) through development to implementation

• Seamless integration; many benefits Acceptance vs Resistance Sustainable vs possibly limited life Avoid “valley of death” Generally higher degree of innovation with inclusion

Multiple public perspectives can provide “out-of-the box “ questions--critical to innovation

Non-linear / game changer vs linear/ incremental innovation Recall The Black Swan Seminar in Café X

Societal Considerations

Q6. How do researchers go about integrating ethics and societal impact?

• To Lab Directors : Embed a “humanist” in your lab. Have a humanist as a member of your research team right from early stages;

co-P.I. on proposals—not downstream; not even mid-stream but all along . Will insure seamless integration Very rewarding

• My personal experience Erik Fisher, the embedded humanist in my NT and Thermal Engineering Lab Enriching experience for my students including Erik, and me

Led to the concept of Humanistic Engineering

Union of these two disciplines, two cultures – A powerful way to transform society.

Societal considerations

A Humanistic Engineer “ A 21st century engineer who is able to adopt multiple perspectives and perform their own socio-humanistic critiques in the absence of qualified humanistic interlocutors”

-- Fisher and Mahajan*

• Technically competent and socially integrative • Innovative and producer and yet reflective, deliberate and in tune with the social ethical aspects of his/her product

*International Conference on Engineering Education, Valencia, Spain, July 2003

My personal experience (cont’d)

• My interest in HE or Technology & Society expanded beyond research to Curriculum Initiatives:

CU-Boulder: NSF Grant—Nanotechnology Undergraduate Education (NUE)

ME UG curriculum modified to include societal and ethical considerations- addition of modules

VT: NUE Grant: A spiral Curriculum Approacho Ishwar Puri, ESM, P.I.o Vinod Lohani, Engineering Educationo J. Pitt, Philosophy/ethicso Richard Wokutch, Businesso Steve Culver, Academic Assessment Programo Roop L. Mahajan, ICTAS, ME, ESM

Societal considerations

Societal considerations

• My interest in HE or Technology & Society expanded beyond research to Curriculum Initiatives (cont’d):

CU-Boulder: NSF Grant—Nanotechnology Undergraduate Education (NUE)

ME UG curriculum modified to include societal and ethical considerations- addition of modules

VT: NUE Grant: A spiral Curriculum Approach

Expansion to graduate curriculum

Graduate Interdisciplinary Liberal Engineering Ethics Curriculum (GILEE)

Societal considerations

NSF/EESE Grant (#0832852): 2008-2011• The GILEE curriculum addresses how issues of engineering ethics and

cultural identities are intertwined within a globalized workplace , and eliminates an important disconnect between contemporary ethical issues in technology and engineering practice.

Ethics Day (Panel discussions; 2009 and 2010) Ethics Summer Workshop (June 2009) Developed and taught a graduate class on ethics – spring 2010

Co-taught by professors Puri, Lohani, Pitt, Wokutch, Culver & Mahajan

Comprehensive survey of both graduate and undergraduate students to get their perspectives on ethics education

Offered again in Spring 2011.

Curriculum Initiative

• Challenging and complex problems facing humanity

• A sustainable future requires solving these problems

• Remarkable developments in human technological ability

• The large scale application of technical solutions all too often brings unintended consequences of similar magnitude and consequence to the solutions

• Engineers and scientists therefore can no longer be content to function within the comfortable limits of analytical tools and initially defined objectives and specifications

• Must include socio-humanistic considerations

Concluding Remarks

Seamless Integration of Technology & Society for a Sustainable Future

• The responsibility cannot be shifted exclusively onto policy makers, lawyers, social scientists, professional ethicists and the like

• Add the rushed tempo of technological development-Schumpeterian pace

• Need to build reflection in the design process- What are the long-term impacts of following short-term marketing trends?

- What is the value of this product?

• Parameters may be indeterminate and answers uncertain: Need a humanistic perspective Need Integration—seamless Barriers exist but we must overcome these Need to start

TODAY, NOWTo build a bridge to the sustainable future

Concluding Remarks

STIR Workshop 4February 16, 2011

Seamless Integration of Technology & Societyfor a Sustainable Future

Roop L. Mahajan

Tucker Chair Professor Director, ICTASInstitute for Critical Technology and Applied Science mahajanr@vt.edu

THANK YOU !!