RULE THE MARKET - Karvy Onlinecontent.karvyonline.com/contents/kstreetissue023.pdfRahul Chander...

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ISSUE: 023

09TH FEBRUARY, 2019

RULE THE MARKET

From The Desk Of Research Head

Disclaimer: Karvy Stock Broking Limited [KSBL] is registered as a research analyst with SEBI (Registration No INZ000172733). KSBL is also a SEBI registered Stock Broker, Depository Participant, Portfolio Manager and also distributes financial products. The subsidiaries and group companies including associates of KSBL provide services as Registrars and Share Transfer Agents, Commodity Broker, Currency and forex broker, merchant banker and underwriter, Investment Advisory services, insurance repository services, financial consultancy and advisory services, realty services, data management, data analytics, market research, solar power, film distribution and production, profiling and related services. Therefore associates of KSBL are likely to have business relations with most of the companies whose securities are traded on the exchange platform. The information and views presented in this report are prepared by Karvy Stock Broking Limited and are subject to change without any notice. This report is based on information obtained from public sources, the respective corporate under coverage and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of KSBL. While we would endeavor to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, KSBL is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent KSBL from doing so. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. KSBL will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned in this report, investors may please note that neither KSBL nor any associate companies of KSBL accepts any liability arising from the use of information and views mentioned in this report. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Associates of KSBL might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. Associates of KSBL might have received compensation from the subject company mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months or for services rendered as Registrar and Share Transfer Agent, Commodity Broker, Currency and forex broker, merchant banker and underwriter, Investment Advisory services, insurance repository services, consultancy and advisory services, realty services, data processing, profiling and related services or in any other capacity.KSBL encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. Compensation of KSBL’s Research Analyst(s) is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. KSBL generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.KSBL or its associates collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. KSBL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report and have no financial interest in the subject company mentioned in this report. Accordingly, neither KSBL nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that KSBL and Research Analysts, primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein of this report have not received any compensation from the subject company mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. It is confirmed that Research Analyst did not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report. KSBL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Neither the Research Analysts nor KSBL have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report. We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on KSBL by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analyst activities.

RBI Focuses on Growth Instead of Inflation:

The central bank has prioritized growth over inflation by reducing rates by 25 bps. After all, the outlook

for global growth has deteriorated. The Indian economy has faced a liquidity deficit, while headline

inflation has been well behaved. Real rates in India are among the highest in the world and the RBI

believes that a modest output gap has opened up. However, core inflation is high at 5.7% and their

move does increase inflationary risks somewhat.

The RBI chose to reduce the repo rate by 25 bps to 6.25% from 6.50% as voted by 4 out of the 6

members of the committee. The monetary policy stance has been changed from ‘calibrated

tightening’ to ‘neutral’. Inflation expectations have been revised downwards to 2.8% in Q42018-19,

3.2-3.4% in H12019-20 from 3.8-4.2% and 3.9% in Q32019-20 on account of food deflation. This has

led to inflation expectations of the household to soften by 80 bps for the 3-month horizon and by 130

bps for the 12-month horizon.

The MPC notes that the actual output has inched lower than the potential largely due to lower liquidity

and subdued global growth expectations. The rationale behind the rate cut is to strengthen private

investment activity while public infrastructure spending has little room to expand in the near term.

On the liquidity front, through OMO purchases the liquidity position has become more comfortable

recently but further action may be needed.

Starting from the January-March 2019 quarter, SLR will be reduced by 25 basis points every calendar

quarter until it reaches 18% of NDTL (Net Demand and Time Liabilities). This is to help align Liquidity

Coverage Ratio with SLR, the current SLR is 19.25%.

The GDP growth outlook for 2019-20 is projected at 7.4% whereas it is expected to be 7.2-7.4% in

H12019-20 and 7.5% in Q32019-20. Non-food credit growth remains good at 14.6% which should

support the economy.

During the interim budget, the fiscal deficit target for 2018-19 has been revised to 3.4% as compared to

the initial expectation of 3.3%. The risk of fiscal slippages for FY2019-10 still remains and is a constraint

for the RBI to cut rates further.

Certain inflationary risks have abated, namely prices of crude as well as rupee against USD. However,

we still believe that core inflation remains high at 5.7% and needs to be addressed.

The bond market reaction has been muted, the 10-year yield has declined by 3.6 bps. Overall, this is

mildly positive for equities, especially autos, real estate and capital goods including infra. Therefore, as

the MPC has adopted a neutral stance, we think that rates will remain unchanged in the next monetary

policy meeting that is to be held during April.

CONTENTSEquity 1-6

Derivatives 7-8

Commodity 9-12

Currency 13-16

Events 17

TeamDr Ravi Singh

Arun Kumar Mantri

Aditya Kistampally

Deepak Balkrushna Sakure

M V Narasinga Rao

Naga Chaitanya

Osho Krishan

Srinivas Krishnan Bobba

Vivek Korkondabhattar

Konpal Pali

Sourabh Gilda

Jayasree Ram

Vivek Ranjan Misra

Veeresh Hiremath

Siddhesh Ghare

Ravi Pandey

Rahul Chander

Ravikanth Pedapati

Bharath Sunnam

Arpit Chandna

Anup B.P

Vinod Jaya Kumar

Karvy Head Office

Karvy Stock Broking Limited, Plot No.31, 6th Floor, Karvy Millennium Towers, Financial District, Nanakramguda, Hyderabad, 500 032, India.

For More updates & Stock ResearchVisit: www.karvyonline.com

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Email: research@karvy.com

Analyst CertificationThe following Karvy Research Desk, who is (are) primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein, certify (ies) that the views expressed herein accurately reflect his (their) personal view(s) about the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his (their) compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report.

- VIVEK RANJAN MISRAHead-Fundamental Research

EQUITY

Economy

• In the sixth bi-monthly monetary policy review, the RBI surprisingly reduced the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% and also changed the policy stance to ‘neutral’ fromthe earlier ‘calibrated tightening’, signaling further softening on its approach to rates.

• Government seeks Parliament’s nod for an additional gross spend of Rs 1.98 lakh crore.

• Foreign direct investment (FDI) into India has declined 11% to USD 22.66 billion duringApril-September period of the current fiscal, according to commerce and industryministry data.

• The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) approved a corpus of 2,000 crore for Agri Market Infrastructure Fund (AMIF) to be created with NABARD for development and upgrade of agricultural marketing infrastructure in rural and regulated wholesalemarkets.

• Recognition of international standards of copyright protection and incentives forintellectual property have helped India jump eight places to 36th position on theInternational Intellectual Property (IP) Index, the highest gain for any country this year.

Automobile

• Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India (HMSI) forayed into the fast-growing middle-weightMotorcycle with the CB300R priced at Rs 2.41 lakh (pan-India, ex-showroom).

• Kia Motors, set to enter the Indian market later this year, has commenced discussionswith the Andhra Pradesh government to establish a testing facility near its manufacturingunit.

BFSI

• State Bank of India said the Reserve Bank of India has slapped Rs 1 crore penalty on the country’s largest lender for violating norms.

• IndoStar Capital Finance Limited today signed a binding agreement to acquire the CV finance business of India Infoline Finance Limited (IIFL Finance), a subsidiary of IIFL Holdings Limited.

• Infrastructure Leasing and Financial Services (IL&FS) has hired auditing and advisory firm Grant Thornton India to conduct audit and assist the Serious Fraud Investigation Office (SFIO) in its probe into alleged financial irregularities in the company.

Aviation

• India’s Jet Airways Ltd has grounded four aircraft after failing to make payments to lessors, in a sign that leasing firms are losing patience with the heavily indebted carrier.

• The government plans to provide civil aviation regulator DGCA with powers to impose penalties on entities violating the rules.

Metals

• Coal India and Gail have formed a committee of senior executives to work jointly on coal bed methane projects of Coal India on its blocks.

• The proposed joint venture is likely to enable Coal India to inject coal bed methane into the proposed Urja Ganga gas pipeline that aims to meet energy requirements of 40 districts and 2,600 villages covering Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and West Bengal.

Pharma

• Dr Reddy’s Laboratories on Wednesday said United Healthcare Services has filed a complaint against its US-based arm and some other entities, alleging a price-fixing conspiracy to rig bids and allocate customers with respect to 30 drugs.

• Dr Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd appoints Axis Bank ex-MD Shikha Sharma as an independent director.

Oil and gas

• Essar Oil UK acquired 11.5% stake in UKOP pipeline, 45% stake in Kingsbury Terminal and the entire 100% stake in Northampton Terminal.

• Gail Ltd has terminated pipe laying contracts to financially-troubled IL&FS and awarded these to new contractors to speed up construction of the Prime Minister’s pet pipeline project that would take natural gas to much of eastern India via his constituency Varanasi.

NEWS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

• President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreed to a 90-day truce in the ongoing trade war, but US tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports are due to more than double to 25% if no deal is reached.

• China to provide $2.5-billion loan to Pakistan to boost forex reserves.

• The Bank of England said Britain faced its weakest economic growth in 10 years in 2019, blaming mounting Brexit uncertainty and the global slowdown, but itstuck to its message that interest rates will rise if a Brexit deal is done.

• US stocks fell on Thursday, weighed down by the technology sector, as fears of a global slowdown were rekindled after the European Union cut its economicgrowth forecasts, while a slew of dismal quarterly reports also added to woes.

TRENDSHEETSymbol CMP S2 S1 R1 R2 TREND

SENSEX 36546.48 35701 36124 37071 37595 Up

NIFTY 10943.6 10655 10799 11103 11263 Up

NIFTYBANK 27294.4 26472 26883 27648 28001 Up

RELIANCE 1,277.70 1201 1239 1319 1359 Up

YESBANK 175.10 166 171 182 189 Down

IBULHSGFIN 613.90 551 582 668 723 Down

ZEEL 398.80 297 348 431 462 Down

AXISBANK 719.40 694 707 733 747 Up

HDFCBANK 2,122.65 2054 2089 2151 2179 Up

TATAMOTORS 150.70 99 125 181 211 Down

SBIN 286.00 270 278 294 302 Down

TITAN 1,053.25 979 1016 1084 1114 Up

TECHM 805.55 705 755 837 868 Up

FORTHCOMING EVENTSCOMPANY NAME EX DATE PURPOSE

505200 EICHER MOTORS LTD. 11TH FEB

531206 KWALITY LTD. 11TH FEB

517334 MOTHER SUMI 11TH FEB

524715 SUN PHARMA 12TH FEB

500440 HINDALCO 12TH FEB

533278 COAL INDIA 12TH FEB

500164 GODREJ INDIA 13TH FEB

500493 BHARAT FORGE 13TH FEB

500144 FINOLEX CABLES 14TH FEB

500399 STEELCO GUJARAT LTD. 14TH FEB

KSTREET - 09TH FEBRUARY 2019 1

INDIAN INDICES (% CHANGE)

GLOBAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

NIFTY MIDCAP100TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

SECTORAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

FII/FPI & DII TRADING (IN RS. CRORES)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

EQUITY

Source: Bloomberg

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

NIFTY IN

DEX

SENSEX

IND

EX

SPBSMIP IN

DEX

SPBSSIP IND

EX

NIFTYJR IN

DEX

NSEM

CA

P IND

EX

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

NSEA

UTO

IND

EX

NSEBA

NK

IND

EX

NSESRV

IND

EX

NSEPH

RM IN

DEX

NSEIT IN

DEX

NSEM

ET IND

EX

NSEN

RG IN

DEX

NSEC

ON

IND

EX

NSEREA

L IND

EX

NSEFM

CG

IND

EX

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

CC

MP IN

DEX

IND

U IN

DEX

SPX IN

DEX

NK

Y IND

EX

HSI IN

DEX

SHC

OM

P IND

EX

UK

X IN

DEX

CA

C IN

DEX

-4-202468

101214

ZEE ENTERTA

INM

ENT

ENTERPRISE

BHA

RTI INFRA

TEL LTD

BAJA

J AU

TO LTD

TECH

MA

HIN

DRA

LTD

TITAN

CO

LTD

IND

USIN

D BA

NK

LTD

TATA

STEEL LTD

HIN

DU

STAN

PETROLEU

M

CO

RP

ITC LTD

CO

AL IN

DIA

LTD

-70-60-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

DISH

TV IN

DIA

LTD

GRU

H FIN

AN

CE LTD

SRF LTD

END

URA

NC

E TEC

HN

OLO

GIES LTD

MA

NA

PPURA

M FIN

AN

CE

LTD

IDBI BA

NK

LTD

AD

AN

I POW

ER LTD

RELIAN

CE C

APITA

L LTD

RELIAN

CE

INFRA

STRUC

TURE LTD

RELIAN

CE PO

WER LTD

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

01-0

2-2019

02-0

2-2019

03-0

2-2019

04-0

2-2019

05-0

2-2019

06-0

2-2019

FII/FPI DII

KSTREET - 09TH FEBRUARY 2019 2

BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Oberoi Realty Ltd CMP Rs.444Target Price Rs.517Upside 16%

Investment Rationale

• Key player in the country’s most lucrative real estate market: Mumbai has one of the largest average residential ticket sizes, as compared to other key regions and cities. ORL has strengthened its brand by offering products of good quality with timely execution by partnering with top contractors of the country. This helps ORL in commanding premium pricing for its projects as compared to other developers, resulting in superior EBITDA margins of > 50%. This may lead to ORL commanding premium valuations as compared to its peers – thus providing further upside.

• Strong project pipeline provides cash flow visibility: The completed & ongoing projects of the company have a total development potential of 12.7 msf (million square feet). These projects are capable of generating an operating cash flow of more than Rs. 100 bn over a period of next 8-10 years, hence, providing strong cash flow stability.

• Strong balance sheet can act as a catalyst for growth: As of FY18, D/E of ORL stands at 0.16. Post RERA implementation and recent events in NBFC space. We expect consolidation in the real estate industry, where quality players like ORL will gain market share due to their strong operational and financial discipline. ORL can take advantage of current consolidation in the industry by leveraging its balance sheet and buy land parcels for future growth.

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 10

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 610/351

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $mn) 161.6/2258

EPS (Rs.) 13.51

P/E Ratio (times) (FY20E) 32.9

Dividend Yield (%) 0.45

Stock Exchange NSE

P/E CHART

Valuation

We have valued ORL using the NAV method, wherein we have calculated the value of ongoing projects and unsold inventories from completed projects (22% NAV from completed and 78% from ongoing projects). We have assumed a cap rate of 8% for rental assets and a discount rate of 13% for residential projects. We estimate a target price of Rs. 517/share (post-tax) on FY21E basis.

EQUITY

% OF SHARE HOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

YE Mar FY 18 FY 19E FY 20E

REVENUE 12654 24055 26797

EBITDA 6753 11768 11780

EBITDA(%) 53.4% 48.9% 44.0%

PAT 4600 8241 12039

EPS (Rs.) 13.5 22.7 33.1

RoE (%) 7.6% 10.6% 13.7%

PE (x) 37.8 18.8 12.9

KSTREET - 09TH FEBRUARY 2019 3

BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Mphasis Ltd. CMP Rs.1028Target Price Rs.1247Upside 21.3%

Investment Rationale

• We remain positive about the future growth prospects of Mphasis. We expect revenues to grow at 12% CAGR FY18-21E. We are optimistic about the future potential from the Blackstone channel.

• YTD FY19, 10 new logos from Blackstone channel has been added, out of which 3 were added in this quarter.

• Two of the new deals are in the AI domain and the other one is related to migration to the cloud. In the coming year we expect addition of more logos from Blackstone.

• Growth of Direct Core will be aided by new deals and strong order book, which currently stands at $484 mn.

• Fresh order intake of $112 mn was there into Direct International business in this quarter. 81% of these deal wins are related to New-Gen services.

• Mphasis acquired Stelligent Systems, with capabilities in DevOps Automation Services on Amazon AWS in this quarter. It will provide access to top talent and will shorten the deployment cycle by providing agility to delivery.

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 10.0

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 1279/799

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $mn) 191056/2670

EPS (Rs.) 43.3

P/E Ratio (times) (FY20E) 15.7

Dividend Yield (%) 2.9

Stock Exchange BSE

ValuationWe recommend a “BUY” for Mphasis for a target price of Rs.1247 with upside potential of 21.3%. We value the stock at its 3-year historical average PE of 19x to its FY20E EPS of Rs.65.44. Key risks to our call include stagnation of DXC/HP channel business and delays in project closures.

EQUITY

P/E CHART

% OF SHARE HOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

YE Mar FY 18 FY 19 FY 20

REVENUE 65458 78454 90652

EBITDA 10623 13729 16771

EBITDA(%) 16.2 17.5 18.5

PAT 8374 10264 12179

EPS(Rs.) 43.3 55.2 65.4

RoE (%) 14.4 18.8 21.1

PE (x) 19.5 18.6 15.7

KSTREET - 09TH FEBRUARY 2019 4

EQUITY

BEAT THE STREET - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

United Phosphorus Ltd

UPL rallied from 349.35 levels in February 2016 to 888.4 levels in August 2017 and corrected from there to 528 levels, which is around 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the said rally and bounced back to close above 23.6% retracement levels of the rally, indicating the end of the correction. The stock has given a breakout from 13 weeks of consolidation in the daily chart, indicating a fresh leg of the rally from these levels. Adding to it, the Parabolic SAR and Heiken candlesticks are signaling a positive trend on the weekly charts, reflecting the stock is well placed to move higher in the coming days. 14 periods RSI is trading above the 9 period averages in the weekly chart, indicating positive momentum. The stock is trading well above all of its major moving averages on daily as well as weekly charts, indicating strong positive momentum in the counter for all major time frames. On Bollinger bands weekly chart, the stock has tested the upper bands and the bands are expanding, indicating positive momentum. At the current levels, the stock has given an excellent opportunity for medium to long term investors to accumulate the stock around 800-810 levels for the potential upside targets of 960-1010 levels over the next 6-9 months, keeping a stop loss below 710 levels.

Manappuram Finance Limited

MANAPPURAM rallied from 17 levels in September 2015 to 124 levels in May 2018 and corrected from there to 65.75 levels on a closing basis, which is around 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the said rally and bounced back to close above the 23.60% retracement levels of the rally, indicating the end of the correction. The stock has given a breakout from bullish head and shoulder chart pattern in the daily chart, indicating a fresh leg of the rally from these levels. Adding to it, the Parabolic SAR and Heiken candlesticks suggest a positive trend in the counter on the weekly charts. The 14 periods RSI is trading at 62.90 above the 9 period averages trading at 55.68 in the weekly chart, indicating positive momentum. The stock is trading well above all of its major moving averages on the daily as well as weekly charts, indicating strong positive momentum in the counter for all major time frames. On Bollinger bands weekly chart, the stock has tested the upper bands and the bands are expanding, indicating positive momentum. At the current levels, the stock has given an excellent opportunity for medium to long term investors to accumulate the stock around 104 levels for the potential upside targets of 127-134 levels over the next 6-9 months, keeping a stop loss below 89 levels.

Stock UPL

CMP 812.2

Action BUY

Entry 800-810

Average 740

Stop loss 710

Target 1 960

Target 2 1010

Time Frame 6-9 Months

Stock MANAPPURAM

CMP 104.8

Action BUY

Entry 103-104

Average 92

Stop loss 89

Target 1 127

Target 2 134

Time Frame 6-9 Months

KSTREET - 09TH FEBRUARY 2019 5

EQUITY

Sentiment

Stop Loss 1350

Target 1170

Lot Size 375

Margin 83800

21-DEMA 1317

Open Interest Shares 8925750

Change in OI 1879125

Cost of Carry (%) -11.64

SECTORAL SNIPPETS

NIFTYIT (16,019.80) traded on a positive note and settled with gains of nearly 1.78% on a weekly closing basis, exhibiting positive bias in the index. On the stock specific front, few stocks managed to outperform the underlying index; TECHM 7.96%, HCLTECH 2.31%, TATAELXSI 1.43%, TCS 1.27%, INFY 0.45% & WIPRO 0.26%c closed in green, while KPIT -0.48%, MINDTREE -1.18%, OFSS -1.89% & INFIBEAM -13.42 underperformed the index on a weekly closing basis. NIFTY IT index after placing a swing low near 13958.85 witnessed a steady recovery in the last couple of sessions. Technically, the index found support near its major 200-DEMA which is currently placed near 14,353 levels and also holding well above its 21 & 50-DEMA which is currently placed near 15,327 & 14,973 levels, respectively. On the momentum setup, 14-period RSI found resistance in overbought territory and turned sideways, showing early signs of ongoing bullish momentum to cool-off in sessions to come. On the downside, the index has immediate support near 15,800 levels followed by 15,600 levels, while on the higher side 16,200 will work as an immediate resistance followed by 16,360. Going forward, the index on sustaining above 15,800 levels is likely to trade with a positive bias towards 16,200-16,400 levels.

NIFTYBANK (27,294.40) outperformed Nifty with gains of 0.77% during the week passed by, while the broader index Nifty gained 0.46%. During the week, the index took resistance at 27,590 levels and couldn’t surpass the previous swing high at 27,620 levels. On the last trading day of the week, the index took crucial support at 27,220 levels, indicating some strength in the index. Considering the technical setup on the daily charts, the index may trade with a positive bias in the short term ahead until unless 27,220 levels are breached. On the stock specific front, KOTAKBANK gained by 3.45% during the week. On the other side, BANKBARODA, YESBANK and PNB lost by 5.76%, 5.66% and 3.79%, respectively. During the week, RBI’s monetary policy committee unanimously opt to revert to a ‘neutral’ posture, but the rate-setting panel unexpectedly decided, by a 4-2 majority, to cut the benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points, to 6.25%. The MPC’s reasoning has been fairly straightforward. With Consumer Price Index-based inflation continuing to slow and projected to stay well below the medium-term target of 4% till at least the October-December quarter, the MPC saw an opportune moment to pivot to a growth-supportive stance. That there is a need to bolster economic momentum is evident from the RBI’s downward revision of the forecast for growth in the first half of the next fiscal year. Technically, BankNifty may face crucial resistance at 27,630 and 27,750 levels. For the week ahead, support for the index can be pegged at 26,650 levels followed by 26,450 levels.

NIFTYPHARM (8984.85) closed the week with a marginally positive return of 0.24% ending

at 8990.80 levels. The major gainers from Pharma index were DIVISLAB, CIPLA, PEL and

SUNPHARMA, while on the flip side GLENMARK, LUPIN and AUROPHARMA closed in red during

last week. Currently, the index is trading well above its 21/50 DEMA on the daily chart, indicating

strength in the index in the near term. On the technical indicator front, 14-period weekly RSI is

pointing northwards and poised with a bullish bias, indicating the index is likely to continue its

outperformance in the coming week as well. The MACD is also trading below the signal line in

negative territory on a weekly chart, indicating weakness is likely to continue in the index in the

near term as well. The immediate support for the NIFTYPHARM is pegged around 8,920-8,900

followed by 8,800 -8,780levels, while on the higher side, the index may face resistance around

9,080-9,100 levels followed by 9,200 levels. Going forward, we are expecting the index to trade

with sideways to positive bias in the coming week. Stock specific action is expected to be seen

in the sector during the next week.

NIFTYFINSE (11,540.25) has seen inline momentum with the market last week and closed the week on a positive tone and generated 0.53%. The index is in an uptrend making higher high after making swing low of 11,148.50 levels. Historical price action in the sector reflects that any minor dip in the stock attracts buyers which helps index to resume its up move. Most of the stocks from the financial space were seen stock specific action in the previous week. The immediate support in the index comes around 11,300 levels and below that are 11,140 levels. The index may find resistance around 11,700 levels and above that is 11,800 levels. The stock from the sector has closed the week with negative bias are BHARATFIN, EDELWISS, HDFC, HDFCLIFE and IBULHSGFIN closed the week with a negative return of around 1.31%, 5.38%, 1.09%, 2.33% and 10.51%, respectively, whereas the stock likes BAJAJFINSV, BAJAJHLDNG, BAJFINCE and ICICIPRULI closed the week with a positive return of around 1.33%, 10.26%, 2.73% and 9.34%. The stock-specific action is expected from the sector in the coming week. Holding our sideways to positive view in the Index for the week.

UNITED PHOSPHORUS LTD: BUY UPL (FEB FUTURE) | CMP: 813.25 SECTOR: CHEMICALS

UPL in the week passed by closed with a gain of nearly 3.85%, whereas benchmark Index NIFTY 50 closed with a gain of around 0.37%, outperforming the NIFTY 50 index, clearly indicating the outperformance of the said stock. On the price chart, the stock has broken out from resistance around 790 levels and appears to resume its uptrend. The momentum indicators like 14 periods RSI on the daily and weekly charts is trading above its signal line, indicating a bullish bias in the near term. On the derivative front, the stock has seen long accumulation post expiry of the January 2019 series and some long addition was also witnessed in the last few trading session. Hence, we recommend Smart Traders to initiate a long position near 800 levels for the higher target of 830 levels, keeping a stop loss below 784 levels.

Sentiment

Stop Loss 784

Target 830

Lot Size 1200

Margin 173400

21-DEMA 745

Open Interest Shares 16693200

Change in OI 10800

Cost of Carry (%) 2.36

LARSEN & TOUBRO LIMITED: SELL LT (FEB FUTURE) | CMP: 1253.70 SECTOR: CEMENT

LT traded the week with a negative bias. The stock closed the week with a negative return of nearly 5% and underperformed its benchmark index NIFTY which closed the week with a marginally positive return of 0.37%. Technically, the stock closed below its 21/50/100/200 DEMA on the daily chart, exhibiting underlying weakness in the stock. On the technical indicator front, the 14-period RSI gave a negative crossover with 9-day signal line on the daily chart and poised with weak bias, indicating downtrend in the counter in near term. The Parabolic SAR (Stop & Reverse) on the daily chart is trading above the price on daily as well as on the weekly chart, indicating weakness is likely to continue in the stock. The derivatives data suggests that the stock has witnessed the addition of short positions during the last trading session, re-confirming our bearish view. From the above observation of price momentum, it seems the stock is likely to trade with negative bias in the coming trading sessions also. Therefore, we recommend Smart Traders to initiate a short position in the counter around 1275 levels with a stop loss placed above 1350 levels for the lower target of 1170 levels.

KSTREET - 09TH FEBRUARY 2019 6

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

NIFTY (10,943.60), after making a swing high at 10,987 levels, witnessed a sharp surge towards 11,118 levels and closed with a weekly gain of 0.46%. The index witnessed moderate gains during the week to close at 10,943 levels as the negative sentiment in global markets trimmed the gains in the Indian markets. In the current scenario, 11,100-11,150 zone may act as a hurdle zone which is in confluence with prior swing highs and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for the down move of 11760 levels to the major swing low of 10,030 levels. This indicates that the above resistance zone might act as strong resistance in the short run ahead. Nifty may indicate further strength once the resistance at 11,118 levels is confidently taken out from the downside.

For the week ahead to watch, market participants may lay their focus on Consumer Inflation, Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output Data releasing on 12th February and WPI Inflation releasing on 14th February. On the derivatives front, Open interest data suggests that the index is likely to trade in the range of 10,400 to 11,200 levels during the week as the index witnessed highest OI addition at these levels while 10,700 and 11,100 levels may act as major support and resistance respectively.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

DERIVATIVES

Type: Buy Call in NIFTY

First leg Buy NIFTY JAN 11000 CE @ 105

Max Profit Unlimited

BEP 11105

Max Loss 7875

Stop loss 60 (Option levels)

Rationale The index has given a breakout of last few weeks trading range and has retested the trading range on Friday. The index is also sustaining above its major moving averages, indicating the ongoing uptrend is intact. Going forward, holding on to the supports of 10850 zone, the index is likely to resume its uptrend.

Type: Buy Call in BANKNIFTY

First leg Buy BANKNIFTY 14 Feb 27400 CE @ 90

Max Profit Unlimited

BEP 27490

Max Loss 1800

Stop loss 40 (Option levels)

Rationale The stock has lost around 7% and given a breakdown from a multi-week trading range with huge short built up in near month futures. Its 580 PE has gained more than 100% on last day of the week, with maximum put open interest is placed at strike of 500 put. Hence, a put option buy is recommended.

Type: Buy Put in IBULHSGFIN

First leg Buy IBULHSGFIN 28 Feb 580 PE @ 37.50

BEP 542.50

Max Profit Unlimited

Max Loss 18750

Stop Loss 25.00 (option levels)

Rationale The stock has lost around 7.00% and given breakdown from a multi week trading range with huge short built up in near month futures. Its 580 PE has gained more than 100% on last day of the week, with maximum put open interest is placed at strike of 500 put. Hence a put option buy is recommended.

Type: Bull Call in BAJFINANCE

First leg Buy one lot of BAJFINANCE 28 FEB 2700 CE @ 85.00

Second leg Sell one lot of BAJFINANCE 28 FEB 2850 CE @ 30.00

BEP 2755.00

Max Profit 23750

Max Loss 13750

Rationale The stock has ended the week on a positive note and ended at five months highs, even on Friday the stock managed to end in green, when Nifty cracked. It is one of the strongest stocks in the financial space. Hence, bullish view for near term

7KSTREET - 09TH FEBRUARY 2019

DERIVATIVES

FII ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURES FII ACTIVITY IN STOCK FUTURES

TOP 6 LONG BUILD UP

Stock Name LTP % Price Change Open Int % OI Change

MUTHOOTFIN 518.25 5.22 2068500 62.81

MANAPPURAM 104.8 11.73 10740000 40.06

SRF 2218.25 12.80 985500 38.71

PCJEWELLER 76.85 7.41 11134500 37.59

TECHM 805.55 7.90 16342800 32.40

CIPLA 534.25 2.47 9591000 31.74

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI

TOP 6 SHORT CLOSURE

Stock Name LTP % Price Change Open Int % OI Change

SBIN 286 0.56 81759000 -14.89

ICICIPRULI 313.6 9.73 5425500 -14.47

MFSL 396.2 5.54 2150400 -12.07

HEROMOTOCO 2938.85 4.69 1880400 -8.49

ZEEL 398.8 12.53 20096700 -8.10

TATAELXSI 904.5 1.71 1476000 -5.46

TOP 6 SHORT BUILD UP

Stock Name LTP % Price Change Open Int % OI Change

RPOWER 10.90 -58.71 95648000 116.52

IGL 286.45 -0.16 3899500 61.69

CONCOR 509.95 -22.58 2550816 54.95

POWERGRID 181.00 -4.84 12704000 47.04

ACC 1395.45 -1.42 2254800 45.02

AJANTPHARM 960.9 -2.23 1011500 41.47

TOP 6 LONG CLOSURE

Stock Name LTP % Price Change Open Int % OI Change

SREINFRA 23.55 -17.94 10812000 -24.29

IDBI 43.20 -18.10 27850000 -22.34

SUZLON 3.70 -24.49 2.5E+08 -16.95

JUBLFOOD 1347.00 -0.81 2940500 -14.13

BERGEPAINT 309.75 -4.81 5319600 -12.61

BHEL 62.25 -3.26 37777500 -12.25

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI

8KSTREET - 09TH FEBRUARY 2019

COMMODITIES

BULLIONGold prices were under pressure during the week ended on 8th February 2019 and heading for the first weekly losses in the last three weeks. Firmness in the dollar index during most parts of the week weighed on the bullion prices. However, the comex gold futures managed to trade above $1300 per troy ounce. Global economic uncertainty and the looming US-China trade war has been supporting the gold prices. Senior US and Chinese officials are poised to start another round of trade talks in Beijing to push for a deal to protect US intellectual property and avert a March 2 increase in US tariffs on Chinese goods. Dallas Fed President said that US central bank should leave interest unchanged until economic outlook is clear. US trade balance for the month of January narrowed to $-49.3 billion from December reading of $-55.7 billion.

ENERGYCrude oil prices went down around 2.54% on Thursday at NYMEX market, whereas closed 3.97% lower at MCX futures. The prices fell as there were signs that some key OPEC countries are cutting supplies more than anticipated, thus reducing worries about oversupply. Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, cut its crude output in January by about 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) as the kingdom follows through on its pledge to reduce production to prevent a supply glut. Riyadh told OPEC that the kingdom pumped 10.24 million bpd in January. That’s down from 10.643 million bpd in December, representing a cut that was 70,000 bpd deeper than the targeted, under the OPEC-led pact to balance the market and support prices. Meanwhile, Russian oil output declined to 11.38 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, or by around 35,000 bpd from the October 2018 level the baseline for the global oil accord, missing the deal’s target. This was down from 11.45 million bpd in December, a record monthly high. In tons, oil output reached 48.113 million versus 48.442 million in December. As per EIA, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels from the previous week. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.5 million barrels last week and distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.3 million barrels last week. In the other developments in the US crude oil market, crude oil imports from the US to Britain in January overtook supplies from other countries for the first time since such shipments began in 2015. US lifted an oil export ban in 2015. British imports of US oil reached 264,000 barrels per day (bpd) last month, with Norway’s 181,000 bpd in the second place and total imports of 738,000 bpd. Also, US House of Representatives committee approved a bill on Thursday that would open up the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to antitrust lawsuits, but it was uncertain if the measure would be considered by the full chamber.

BASE METALSBase metals for the week traded on a mixed note amid the absence of the Chinese stimulus in the market. The price rise was also capped by the slowing concerns of growth from China. Aluminium semis grew by 3.9% on a yearly basis, to 39.7 million tons, as per Nonferrous Metals Fabrication Industry Association. The output of aluminium semis contracted 4.6% on the year. China produced 5.75 million tons of alumina in December 2018, down 3.3% on a monthly basis, sourced from International Aluminium Institute. World’s output of alumina stood at 9.96 million tons, down 0.2% from November, but up 5.8% on a yearly basis. Global production during January-December fell 2.1% yearly to 116 million tons. China’s output of copper semis rose by 3.4% to 17.81 million tons in 2018. The output growth of copper semis slowed to 0.6% point as shown by Nonferrous Metals Fabrication Industry Association. China’s production of lead-acid batteries accounted for over 40% of the global total in 2017 and generated 3.8 million tons of used batteries. On the economic front, China’s central bank skipped open market operations on 2nd Feb, citing sufficient liquidity in the banking system. The overnight Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate, climbed 16.4 basis points to 2.26%. That for one-month loans dipped 1.6 basis points to 2.82%. Nigeria is re-entering the aluminium game with the reopening of a domestic smelting firm that has been idle for a decade. China’s zinc output came in at 4.53 million tons in 2018 based on the survey of Antaike which marked a fall of 4.6%, or 218,000 tons, from 2017, the steepest drop since 2013 giving support to the prices.

COTTONCotton futures witnessed a choppy trade during the week ending on 8th Feb tracking changing sentiments of the market. Reduced supply at the physical market and renewed industrial buying supported prices for the most part of the week. Forecast of lower production in major cotton growing states and minimal yield realization buoyed price. Total arrival of cotton in India has been lower by 6%-8% till the end of Jan reported at 161 lakh bales. Meanwhile, Cotton Association of India trimmed its forecast of cotton production of India to 330 lakh bales from 335 lakh bales of earlier projections. Similarly, ICE cotton futures traded sideways to down due to looming uncertainty over the trade negotiations between US and China. Furthermore, firmness in the dollar index weighed on the price for the most part of the week. Meanwhile, USDA released its weekly export sales data showing net sales of 228,200 RB for the week ending 27th Dec for year 2018/2019, down by 39% from the previous week, but up 39% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were

reported for Pakistan (52,800 RB), Turkey (49,200 RB, including decreases of 1,700 RB), India (35,500 RB), China (28,400 RB, including decreases of 13,400 RB), and Mexico (23,800 RB). Exports of 189,800 RB were down 8% from the previous week, but up 13% from the prior 4-week average. Meanwhile, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) revised its projections for global supply downwardly due to a fall in production levels in India. ICAC estimated total global production of cotton for the year 2018-19 at 25.92 million tons, lower by 0.24 million tons from the prior month’s estimates. Estimates for global cotton consumption were kept unchanged at 26.8 million tons. ICAC trimmed global stocks further to 17.64 million tons against the 18.2 million tons of the prior month.

OIL & OILSEEDSSoybean futures witnessed heavy downfall in prices during the werking ending of the week on 8th Feb. weighing on the soybean prices was the outlook of huge stockpiles of soybean in the coming months which triggered profit booking at futures platform. Reports of increased import of US soybean in China kept Indian traders worried over the demand outlook of Indian soymeal. China has imported about 26 lakh tons of US soybean so far in the current year amid ongoing trade dispute between US and China. Meanwhile, muted demand at the physical market also weighed on the price. However, Soy Oil futures traded on a positive note due to reports of lowering import in India. Costlier import in India driven by heavy duties and depreciation of Indian currency against the US dollar supported prices at futures platform. Apart from that, firmness global prices also added positivity to prices during last week. Similarly, RM Seed futures traded sideways to down tracking plunging prices of soybean. Moreover, adequate supt at the physical market also capped the major gains in RM Seed prices. Total stocks of mustard seed were reported near at 5 lakh to till the end of Jan which is looking sufficient for crushing in upcoming months. Likewise, CPO

prices ruled higher due to the costlier import of veg oil in India.

SPICESSpices basket were in sideways to downward streak during the week ended on

8th February. Dhaniya and cardamom continued their falling trade, while turmeric

and jeera noted slight recoveries after falling to their multi-week low. Starting with

cardamom, Feb month futures contract traded higher as market participants rolled

over positions from Feb contract to next month contracts of Mar and Apr. Mar

month contract noted a sharp fall with not much buying activities at the spot market

despite the decline in supplies. Arrivals during the week until Thursday was at 299

MTs while avg. auction prices traded in the range of Rs.1447-1479 per kg, lower by

Rs.1-17 per kg WoW. Further, forecasts of light rainfall in the growing region of Idukki

during the weekend may turn good for the worries ridden crop, hence, prices took

negative cues. Although overall factors are bullish in the long term due to lack of

crop production, a temporary slowdown in buying activities at higher prices weighed

prices in the futures market. Further, lack of export demand from Saudi Arabia, the

largest buyer of Indian cardamom kept sentiments down for cardamom. Hence, Feb

futures traded in the range of Rs. 1545-1615 per kg before closing at Rs. 1575 per kg,

up by 1.14% WoW, while Mar month contract traded in the range of Rs.1476-1565 per

kg and closed with a sharp loss of 5.04% from its previous week close. On the other

hand, turmeric futures traded sideways with a slight negative bias; prices traded

down extending 5-week loss further to 6 weeks in a row as they fell to the 7-week low

of Rs. 6282 per quintal. Increasing arrivals at the spot market due to peak harvesting

activities amid limited buying activities weighed prices down. However, prices

noted small recovery from lower levels on profit booking as prices found support

from 6250 levels. Hence, most active Apr futures closed the week at Rs. 6340 per

quintal, lower by 0.69% WoW, while May futures closed with a loss of 1.27% from

the last close. Jeera futures also traded similar to turmeric with prices extending

prior 2-week fall further to 3-week. However, it closed with decent recovery. Prices

fell below their 10-month low of Rs.15430/quintal to Rs. 15365 per quintal tracking

expectations of arrivals to increase at the spot market amid expectations of higher

crop size. Further, the lack of a major export demand scenario for old crop waiting

for new crop weighed prices. Hence, active futures traded in the range of Rs. 15365-

15890 per quintal before closing at Rs. 15525 per quintal, lower by 1.86% from last

week close. Dhaniya futures plunged to their 3-week low of Rs. 6160 per quintal

tracking weak demand amid sufficient availability of stocks at the spot markets as

well as on expectations of arrivals to increase in the coming days amid good yield

expectations. Hence, Apr futures closed at Rs. 6204/quintal, lower by 5.84%, while

May futures closed with a loss of 5.51% from its previous close.

9KSTREET - 09TH FEBRUARY 2019

NICKEL

COMMODITIES

TREND SHEET

Commodities 1-Feb 7-Feb % Change 52 Week High% Change from 52

Week High52 Week Low

% Change from 52 Week Low

MCX Gold (Rs/10 gms) 33405.00 33169.00 -0.7% 33750.00 -1.72% 29268.00 13.33%

MCX Silver (Rs/Kg) 40576.00 39920.00 -1.6% 41698.00 -4.26% 34981.00 14.12%

MCX Crude Oil (Rs/bbl) 3963.00 3727.00 -6.0% 5669.00 -34.26% 2993.00 24.52%

MCX Natural Gas (Rs/mmBtu) 197.20 183.20 -7.1% 358.70 -48.93% 162.50 12.74%

MCX Copper (Rs/kg) 438.75 446.30 1.7% 493.25 -9.52% 397.40 12.30%

MCX Lead (Rs/kg) 151.90 148.05 -2.5% 171.80 -13.82% 133.15 11.19%

MCX Zinc (Rs/kg) 199.50 194.45 -2.5% 232.70 -16.44% 163.80 18.71%

MCX Nickel (Rs/kg) 906.80 920.60 1.5% 1095.20 -15.94% 735.00 25.25%

MCX Aluminium (Rs/kg) 134.15 134.70 0.4% 178.85 -24.69% 124.75 7.98%

NCDEX Soybean (Rs/Quintal) 3792.00 3757.00 -0.9% 3915.00 -4.04% 3149.00 19.31%

NCDEX Refined Soy Oil (Rs/10 kg) 771.90 776.10 0.5% 796.35 -2.54% 713.60 8.76%

NCDEX RM Seed (Rs/Quintal) 3975.00 3937.00 -1.0% 4262.00 -7.63% 3727.00 5.63%

MCX CPO (Rs/10 kg) 567.10 572.70 1.0% 673.00 -14.90% 483.40 18.47%

NCDEX Castor Seed (Rs/Quintal) 5124.00 5062.00 -1.2% 6300.00 -19.65% 3831.00 32.13%

NCDEX Turmeric (Rs/Quintal) 6384.00 6372.00 -0.2% 7702.00 -17.27% 5978.00 6.59%

NCDEX Jeera (Rs/Quintal) 15820.00 15585.00 -1.5% 21000.00 -25.79% 14010.00 11.24%

NCDEX Dhaniya (Rs/Quintal) 6589.00 6233.00 -5.4% 6892.00 -9.56% 4186.00 48.90%

MCX Cardamom (Rs/kg) 1557.30 1600.00 2.7% 1660.00 -3.61% 818.50 95.48%

NCDEX Wheat (Rs/Quintal) 2006.00 2060.00 2.7% 2162.00 -4.72% 1614.00 27.63%

NCDEX Guar Seed (Rs/Quintal) 4290.50 4163.50 -3.0% 4869.50 -14.50% 3494.50 19.14%

NCDEX Guar Gum (Rs/Quintal) 8597.00 8253.00 -4.0% 10510.00 -21.47% 7200.00 14.63%

MCX Cotton (Rs/Bale) 20900.00 20680.00 -1.1% 24280.00 -14.83% 19400.00 6.60%

NCDEX Cocud (Rs/Quintal) 2023.50 1959.00 -3.2% 2078.00 -5.73% 1166.00 68.01%

NCDEX Kapas (Rs/20 kg) 868.00 868.00 0.0% 938.50 -7.51% 854.00 1.64%

MCX Mentha Oil (Rs/kg) 1557.00 1564.70 0.5% 1846.10 -15.24% 1106.00 41.47%

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

COPPER

SILVER

Nickel MCX Feb is currently trading at 906. During the week, it made a high of 960.80 and low of 906.50. The RSI is trading at 58.33. Moving average of 13 is at 889.30 and 55 is at 809.88. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, we recommend buying at 890-895 for target price 930 with a stop loss below 870.

Copper MCX Feb is currently trading at 443.90. During the week, it made a high of 451.20 and low of 437.25. The RSI is trading at 54.33. Moving average of 13 is at 429 and 55 is at 441. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, we recommend buying at 443-444 for target price of 455 with a stop loss of 436.

Silver MCX Mar is currently trading at 39900. During the week, it made a high of 40716 and low of 39725. The RSI is trading at 57.77. Moving average of 13 is at 40012 and 55 is at 38579. The trend is looking Positive for the week. Hence, we recommend buying at 39700-39720 for target price 40500 with a stop loss of 39400.

10KSTREET - 09TH FEBRUARY 2019

COMMODITIES

NEWS DIGEST

• On Tuesday, LME Copper prices declined by 0.5% to close at $6246.0 per ton. Global economic slowdown and a firmer Dollar weighed on the copper prices. Weak economic data in recent weeks in key global economies, including in world biggest metal consumer (China), has raised fears of a global recession.

• On the MCX, Copper prices declined by 0.6% to close at Rs. 446.3 per kg. The rabi sowing area continued to lag behind last year as compared to 622.12 lakh hectares (lh) planted during the corresponding period, the sowing covered only 591.64 lh till 25th January 2019, according to data released by the Agriculture Ministry. This accounted for a drop of around 4.90%.

• Concerns over the US-China trade war, a slowdown in global economic activity and buying from the central bank, augurs well for the yellow metal. Gold prices are likely to touch $1,350 in the medium term. For the past few sessions, there has been a small rally in the metal and energy prices. In normal circumstance, this upswing could be construed as a revival in demand and improvement in economic sentiment.

• India and China are mutually stepping up efforts to trade more farm products right from tobacco to rapeseed meal, which analysts believe can be an effectual way to solve the trade gap between the two countries.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

• Brent oil inched up on Friday but was heading for a weekly loss, pulled down by worries about a global economic slowdown, although OPEC-led supply cuts and US sanctions against Venezuela provided crude with some support.

• Cotton prices are expected to remain firm this year due to lower production in the country, apart from rising consumption in both the domestic and overseas markets. In 2019, due to a tighter supply situation as well as robust export demand following trade tension between the US and China, cotton prices will remain firm.

• Gold held steady on Friday on worries that a prolonged Sino-US trade war could worsen global economic slowdown, but strong put bullion on track for its first weekly loss in three.

• BSE, one of the latest entrants in the commodity derivatives trading space, has launched futures trading in guar seed and guargum. The capital and commodity market regulator SEBI last month allowed the exchange to launch futures trading in gold mini, guar seed and guargum futures contracts. Following this, the exchange launched trading in the two agriculture commodities guar seed and guargum.

MCX CRUDE MCX NATURAL GAS

MCX CRUDE- PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST MCX NATURAL GAS – PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST

0

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BL

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tu

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Open Interest Volume Price (INR/MMBTU)

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Volume Open Interest Price (INR/Bbl)

11KSTREET - 09TH FEBRUARY 2019

COMMODITIES

PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (IN US $)

Commodity Exchange Contract 01-Feb 08-Feb % change

Aluminium LME 3M 1875.00 1893.50 0.99%

Copper LME 3M 6141.50 6253.50 1.82%

Lead LME 3M 2122.00 2080.00 -1.98%

Nickel LME 3M 12670.00 12910.00 1.89%

Zinc LME 3M 2758.00 2725.00 -1.20%

Gold CME FEB 1317.40 1308.70 -0.66%

Silver CME MAR 15.91 15.74 -1.10%

WTI Crude oil CME FEB 55.37 52.61 -4.98%

Natural Gas CME FEB 2.73 2.57 -5.96%

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

Commodity Exchange Contract 01-Feb 08-Feb % change

Soybean CBOT JAN 943.75 940.75 -0.32%

Soy oil CBOT JAN 27.88 27.88 0.00%

CPO BMD MAR 2298.00 2289.00 -0.39%

Cotton ICE MAR 73.65 72.78 -1.18%

FUTURE PRICES (% CHANGE)

LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)

Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change

Copper 149950 149200 -750 -0.50%

Zinc 113200 109925 -3275 -2.89%

Aluminium 1284125 1296800 12675 0.99%

Lead 72450 67125 -5325 -7.35%

Nickel 201702 200490 -1212 -0.60%

SHANGHAI WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)*

Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change

Copper 119727 142727 23000 19.21%

Zinc 34510 46931 12421 35.99%

Aluminium 688821 704761 15940 2.31%

*Until Wednesday

WEEKLY STOCK POSITION IN LME (IN TONS)

Progress of area coverage under Rabi crops as on 1st February 2019

COMEX WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)

Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change

Copper 85970 78571 -7399 -8.61%

CropArea Sown Covered Difference

over 2018-19 over 2017-18

Yr-on-yr Change

Normal Rabi Area2018-19 2017-18

Wheat 297.24 299.34 -2.1 -0.70% 306.29

Rice 25.36 31.19 -5.83 -18.69% 41.59

Pulses 153.35 162.7 -9.35 -5.75% 140.84

Gram 96.35 107.08 -10.73 -10.02% 89.45

Lentil 16.9 17.19 -0.29 -1.69% 13.94

Fieldpea 10.41 9.35 1.06 11.34% 9.33

Kulthi 5.52 4.24 1.28 30.19% 2.09

Urdbean 7.63 8.56 -0.93 -10.86% 8.13

Moongbean 6.81 7.25 -0.44 -6.07% 9.62

Lathyrus 3.62 3.26 0.36 11.04% 4.58

Other Pulses 6.11 5.76 0.35 6.08% 3.69

Coarse Cereals 47.92 55.5 -7.58 -13.66% 64.53

Jowar 25.05 30.69 -5.64 -18.38% 37.4

Bajra 0.13 0.23 -0.1 -43.48% 3.66

Ragi 0.63 0.67 -0.04 -5.97% 0.32

Maize 14.88 16.5 -1.62 -9.82% 16.51

Barley 7.24 7.41 -0.17 -2.29% 6.64

Oilseeds 79.84 80.46 -0.62 -0.77% 80.6

Rapeseed & Mustard

69.12 66.98 2.14 3.19% 61.25

Groundnut 4.64 6 -1.36 -22.67% 7.85

Safflower 0.45 0.81 -0.36 -44.44% 1.62

Sunflower 1.12 1.72 -0.6 -34.88% 3.78

Sesamum 0.73 0.58 0.15 25.86% 3.04

Linseed 3.44 4.02 -0.58 -14.43% 2.93

Other Oilseeds 0.34 0.37 -0.03 -8.11% 0.15

Total Crops 603.71 629.18 -25.47 -4.05% 633.85

Source: Ministry of Agriculture Cooperation & Farmers Welfare

-7.10%

-5.96%

-5.40%

-4.00%

-3.19%

-2.96%

-2.53%

-2.53%

-1.62%

-1.49%

-1.21%

-1.05%

-0.96%

-0.92%

-0.71%

-0.41%

-0.19%

0.41%

0.49%

0.54%

0.99%

1.52%

1.72%

2.69%

2.74%

-8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00%

Natural Gas

Crude Oil

Dhaniya

Guar Gum

Cotton Seed Oil Cake

Guar Seed

Lead

Zinc

Silver

Jeera

Castor Seed

Cotton

RM Seed

Soybean

Gold

Barley

Turmeric

Aluminum

Mentha Oil

Soy Oil

CPO

Nickel

Copper

Wheat

Cardamom

12KSTREET - 09TH FEBRUARY 2019

USD/INR

USDINR is currency trading at 71.27. During the week, it made a high of 71.83 and low of 71.00. The RSI is at 53.60. Moving average of 13 is at 70.98 and 55 is at 69.38. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, we recommend buying at 71.00-71.10 for target price 72.00 with stop loss of 70.80

EUR/INR

EURINR is currency trading at 80.83. During the week, it made a high of 82.28 and low of 80.40. The RSI is trading at 47.85. Moving average of 13 is at 81.03 and 55 is at 80.25. The trend is looking sideways for the week. Hence, we recommend buying at 80.20-80.10 for target price 81.30 with a stop loss of 79.80.

GBP/INR

GBPINR is currency trading at 92.35. During the week, it made a high of 93.92 and low of 91.75. The RSI is trading at 55.21. Moving average of 13 is at 91.63 and 55 is at 90.26. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, we recommend buying at 92.00-91.90 for target price 94.00 with a stop loss of 91.00.

JPY/INR

JPYINR is currency trading at 64.89. During the week, it made a high of 65.40 and low of 64.61. The RSI is at 60.47. Moving average of 13 is at 64.23 and 55 is at 62.55. The trend is looking bullish for the week. Hence, we recommend buying at 64.30-64.20 for target price 67.00 with a stop loss of 63.70.

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONMARKET STANCE

India’s central bank unexpectedly lowered interest rates to 6.25% from 6.50% and shifted its stance to “neutral” from “calibrated tightening” to boost a slowing economy after a sharp fall in the inflation rate. Rupee posted marginal gains post MPC decision, but strong dollar index combined with domestic & global political uncertainty has restricted the gains in Rupee. Reports of the US consider withdrawal of Zero tariffs for India also weighed on Rupee. Currently, India enjoys zero tariffs on $5.6 billion if exports to the US. US Commerce secretary Wilbur Ross is due in India next week where he is expected to raise concerns about the e-commerce policy and data localization. USDINR pair is likely to hold to its strong support at 71.00 a Dollar and continue to consolidate between 71.00 – 71.80 abroad weakness in shares on trade worries outweighed the fall in crude prices. The European Commission sharply cut its forecasts for eurozone economic growth this year and also for next because it expects the bloc’s largest countries to be held back by global trade tensions and domestic challenges. Fall in German Industrial production (MoM) in Dec to -0.4% vs expectations at 0.7% also weighed on Euro. BoE left rates unchanged and cut its GDP growth forecast from 1.7% in 2019 to 1.2%. Carney has sounded little bullish and he believes that the UK economy will rebound sharply in case of smooth Brexit. European Union Tusk said that a no breakthrough is in sight and Brexit talks will continue. Yen remained in a tight range as the gains in dollar index were offset by the safe haven demand due to renewed geo-political tensions.

NEWS FLOWS OF LAST WEEK

• US President Trump said he did not plan to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping before the March 1 deadline for reaching an agreement.

• Fed’s Bullard stated that FOMC has moved in a more dovish direction. Fed doesn’t have to raise rates, as they are at a good level.

• British PM May said talks with EU President concerning the Irish backstop measure included the withdrawal agreement were “constructive”, keeping investor hopes alive that the UK will avoid a no-deal Brexit and boosting the pound.

• Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta J. Mester said that the Fed’s wait-and-see approach on rates remains ‘well-calibrated’ to the outlook while adding that the Fed is neither far behind nor far ahead of the curve. If the economy performs along the lines then the Fed funds rate may need to move a bit higher than current levels.

• US President Donald Trump said military intervention in Venezuela was “an option” as Western nations boost pressure on socialist leader Nicolas Maduro to step down, while the troubled OPEC nation’s ally Russia warned against “destructive meddling.”

• India Forex Reserves increased to 400.24 Bn during the week ended on 1st Feb from 398.18 Bn earlier.

CURRENCY

CURRENCY TABLE

Currency Pair Open High Low Close

USDINR 71.59 71.82 71.02 71.30

EURINR 81.98 82.23 80.45 80.84

GBPINR 93.62 93.93 91.78 92.40

JPYINR 65.34 65.41 64.63 64.91

13KSTREET - 09TH FEBRUARY 2019

ECONOMIC GAUGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK

Local Start Date Local Time Country Indicator Name Period Reuters Poll Unit Prior

11-Feb 07:30 China (Mainland) Total Social Financing Jan 3,250.00B CNY 1,589.80B

11-Feb 18:30 Russia Foreign Trade Dec 19.250B USD 18.984B

11-Feb 19:00 United States GDP Advance Q4 2.6% Percent 3.4%

11-Feb 19:00 United States GDP Sales Advance Q4 2.4% Percent 1.0%

11-Feb 19:00 United States GDP Cons Spending Advance Q4 Percent 3.5%

11-Feb 19:00 United States GDP Deflator Advance Q4 1.7% Percent 1.5%

11-Feb 19:00 United States Core PCE Prices Advance Q4 1.7% Percent 1.6%

11-Feb 19:00 United States PCE Prices Advance Q4 1.6% Percent 1.6%

11-Feb 19:00 United States Labor Costs Prelim Q4 1.7% Percent 0.9%

11-Feb 19:00 United States Productivity Prelim Q4 1.7% Percent 2.3%

11-Feb 21:30 United States Export Wheat Inspected 7 Feb, w/e Tonne 440.031k

11-Feb 21:30 United States Export Corn Inspected 7 Feb, w/e Tonne 901.214k

11-Feb 21:30 United States Exp Soybean Inspected 7 Feb, w/e Tonne 975.775k

11-Feb China (Mainland) M2 Money Supply YY Jan 8.2% Percent 8.1%

11-Feb China (Mainland) New Yuan Loans Jan 2,800.0B CNY 1,080.0B

11-Feb China (Mainland) Outstanding Loan Growth Jan 13.1% Percent 13.5%

11-Feb China (Mainland) FX Reserves (Monthly) Jan 3.082T USD 3.073T

11-Feb Russia Budget Fulfilment Jan Percent 2.7%

11-Feb India Trade Deficit Govt -USD Jan 13.80B USD 13.08B

11-Feb India Imports - USD Jan USD 41.01B

11-Feb India Exports - USD Jan USD 27.93B

12-Feb 16:30 United States NFIB Business Optimism Idx Jan Index 104.40

12-Feb 17:30 India CPI Inflation YY Jan 2.48% Percent 2.19%

12-Feb 17:30 India Industrial Output YY Dec 2.0% Percent 0.5%

12-Feb 17:30 India Cumulative Ind. Output Dec Percent 5.0%

12-Feb 17:30 India Manufacturing Output Dec Percent -0.4%

12-Feb 19:25 United States Redbook MM 9 Feb, w/e Percent -2.0%

12-Feb 19:25 United States Redbook YY 9 Feb, w/e Percent 5.7%

12-Feb 20:30 United States JOLTS Job Openings Dec Person 6.888M

12-Feb China (Mainland) FDI (YTD) Jan Percent 0.90%

13-Feb 03:00 United States API weekly crude stocks 4 Feb, w/e #N/P Number of #N/P

13-Feb 03:00 United States API weekly gasoline stk 4 Feb, w/e #N/P Number of #N/P

13-Feb 03:00 United States API weekly dist. stocks 4 Feb, w/e #N/P Number of #N/P

13-Feb 03:00 United States API weekly heating oil 4 Feb, w/e #N/P Number of #N/P

13-Feb 03:00 United States API weekly crude imports 4 Feb, w/e #N/P Number of #N/P

13-Feb 03:00 United States API weekly product imports 4 Feb, w/e #N/P Number of #N/P

13-Feb 03:00 United States API weekly crude runs 4 Feb, w/e #N/P Number of #N/P

13-Feb 03:00 United States API Cushing number 4 Feb, w/e #N/P Number of #N/P

13-Feb 17:00 India M3 Money Supply 1 Feb, w/e Percent 10.4%

13-Feb 17:30 United States MBA Mortgage Applications 8 Feb, w/e Percent -2.5%

13-Feb 17:30 United States Mortgage Market Index 8 Feb, w/e Index 378.9

13-Feb 17:30 United States MBA Purchase Index 8 Feb, w/e Index 253.1

13-Feb 17:30 United States Mortgage Refinance Index 8 Feb, w/e Index 1,053.4

13-Feb 17:30 United States MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate 8 Feb, w/e Percent 4.69%

13-Feb 19:00 United States Core CPI MM, SA Jan 0.2% Percent 0.2%

13-Feb 19:00 United States Core CPI YY, NSA Jan 2.1% Percent 2.2%

13-Feb 19:00 United States CPI Index, NSA Jan Index 251.233

13-Feb 19:00 United States Core CPI Index, SA Jan Index 260.03

13-Feb 19:00 United States CPI MM, SA Jan 0.0% Percent -0.1%

13-Feb 19:00 United States CPI YY, NSA Jan 1.6% Percent 1.9%

13-Feb 19:00 United States Real Weekly Earnings MM Jan Percent 0.7%

13-Feb 19:00 United States CPI MM NSA Jan Percent -0.320%

CURRENCY

14KSTREET - 09TH FEBRUARY 2019

13-Feb 19:00 United States CPI Index SA Jan Index 252.730

13-Feb 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Crude Stocks 8 Feb, w/e Barrel 1.263M

13-Feb 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks 8 Feb, w/e Barrel -2.257M

13-Feb 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk 8 Feb, w/e Barrel 0.513M

13-Feb 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Crude Imports 8 Feb, w/e Barrel -0.863M

13-Feb 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Rfg Stocks 8 Feb, w/e Barrel 0.005M

13-Feb 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Heatoil Stock 8 Feb, w/e Barrel -0.456M

13-Feb 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Prods Imports 8 Feb, w/e Barrel/Day 1.138M

13-Feb 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Dist Output 8 Feb, w/e Barrel/Day 0.102M

13-Feb 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Crude Runs 8 Feb, w/e Barrel/Day 0.170M

13-Feb 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Refining Util 8 Feb, w/e Percent 0.6%

13-Feb 21:00 United States EIA Wkly Crude Cushing 8 Feb, w/e Barrel 1.441M

13-Feb 21:00 United States EIA Weekly Gasoline O/P 8 Feb, w/e Barrel/Day -0.048M

13-Feb 21:30 United States Cleveland Fed CPI Jan Percent 0.2%

13-Feb 21:30 United States TR IPSOS PCSI Feb Index (diffusion) 61.58

14-Feb 00:00 United States EIA Ethanol Ref Stk 8 Feb, w/e Barrel 23,947k

14-Feb 00:00 United States EIA Ethanol Fuel Total 8 Feb, w/e Barrel per day 967k

14-Feb 00:30 United States Federal Budget,$ Dec -12.00B USD -205.00B

14-Feb 12:00 India WPI Inflation YY Jan 3.65% Percent 3.80%

14-Feb 12:00 India WPI Food Index Jan Percent 0.07%

14-Feb 12:00 India WPI Food Articles YY Jan Percent -0.07%

14-Feb 12:00 India WPI Fuel YY Jan Percent 8.38%

14-Feb 12:00 India WPI Mfg Inflation Jan Percent 3.59%

14-Feb 16:30 Russia TR IPSOS PCSI Feb Index (diffusion) 37.23

14-Feb 18:30 Russia Cbank Wkly Reserves 4 Feb, w/e USD 477.7B

14-Feb 19:00 United States Durable Goods Dec 1.8% Percent 0.7%

14-Feb 19:00 United States Durables Ex-Transport Dec 0.3% Percent -0.4%

14-Feb 19:00 United States Durables Ex-Defense MM Dec Percent -0.1%

14-Feb 19:00 United States Nondefe Cap Ex-Air Dec 0.1% Percent -0.6%

14-Feb 19:00 United States Corn Export Sales New 31 Dec, w/e Tonne 610.60k

14-Feb 19:00 United States Corn Export Sales Net 31 Dec, w/e Tonne 503.100k

14-Feb 19:00 United States Corn Exp Sale Next Yr Net 31 Dec, w/e Tonne 0.00k

14-Feb 19:00 United States Corn Exp Sales Net Total 31 Dec, w/e Tonne 503.10k

14-Feb 19:00 United States Soybean Export Sales New 31 Dec, w/e Tonne 1,062.200k

14-Feb 19:00 United States Soybean Export Sales Net 31 Dec, w/e Tonne 1,051.400k

14-Feb 19:00 United States Soybean Exp Sale Next Yr Net 31 Dec, w/e Tonne 5.30k

14-Feb 19:00 United States Soybean Exp Sale Net Total 31 Dec, w/e Tonne 1,056.70k

14-Feb 19:00 United States Soybeanmeal Exp Sale Net 31 Dec, w/e Tonne 40.60k

14-Feb 19:00 United States Soymeal Exp Sls Next Yr Net 31 Dec, w/e Tonne -0.30k

14-Feb 19:00 United States Soybn Meal Exp Sls Net Total 31 Dec, w/e Tonne 40.30k

14-Feb 19:00 United States Soybeanoil Exp Sales Net 31 Dec, w/e Tonne 16.00k

14-Feb 19:00 United States Soybn Oil Exp Sls Nxt Yr Net 31 Dec, w/e Tonne 0.00k

14-Feb 19:00 United States Soybn Oil Exp Sls Net Total 31 Dec, w/e Tonne 16.00k

14-Feb 19:00 United States Wheat Export Sales New 31 Dec, w/e Tonne 608.200k

14-Feb 19:00 United States Wheat Export Sales Net 31 Dec, w/e Tonne 593.000k

14-Feb 19:00 United States Wheat Exp Sale Next Yr Net 31 Dec, w/e Tonne 0.00k

14-Feb 19:00 United States Wheat Exp Sale Net Total 31 Dec, w/e Tonne 593.00k

14-Feb 19:00 United States Beef Export Sales New 31 Dec, w/e Tonne 4.200k

14-Feb 19:00 United States Beef Export Sales Net 31 Dec, w/e Tonne 3.200k

14-Feb 19:00 United States Up Cotton Exp Sales New 31 Dec, w/e Number of 243.600k

14-Feb 19:00 United States Up Cotton Exp Sales Net 31 Dec, w/e Number of 228.200k

14-Feb 19:00 United States US Pork Export Sales New 31 Dec, w/e Tonne 8.300k

14-Feb 19:00 United States US Pork Export Sales Net 31 Dec, w/e Tonne 3.800k

14-Feb 19:00 United States Initial Jobless Claims 4 Feb, w/e Person 234k

CURRENCY

15KSTREET - 09TH FEBRUARY 2019

14-Feb 19:00 United States Jobless Claims 4-Wk Avg 4 Feb, w/e Person 224.75k

14-Feb 19:00 United States Continued Jobless Claims 28 Jan, w/e Person 1.736M

14-Feb 19:00 United States PPI Final Demand YY Jan 2.3% Percent 2.5%

14-Feb 19:00 United States PPI Final Demand MM Jan 0.1% Percent -0.2%

14-Feb 19:00 United States PPI exFood/Energy YY Jan 2.6% Percent 2.7%

14-Feb 19:00 United States PPI exFood/Energy MM Jan 0.2% Percent -0.1%

14-Feb 19:00 United States PPI ex Food/Energy/Tr YY Jan Percent 2.8%

14-Feb 19:00 United States PPI ex Food/Energy/Tr MM Jan Percent 0.0%

14-Feb 19:00 United States Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM Dec 0.1% Percent 0.2%

14-Feb 19:00 United States Retail Sales MM Dec 0.2% Percent 0.2%

14-Feb 19:00 United States Retail Ex Gas/Autos Dec Percent 0.5%

14-Feb 19:00 United States Retail Control Dec 0.4% Percent 0.9%

14-Feb 19:00 United States Retail Sales YoY Dec Percent 4.22%

14-Feb 20:30 United States Business Inventories MM Nov 0.3% Percent 0.6%

14-Feb 20:30 United States Retail Inventories Ex-Auto Rev Nov Percent

14-Feb 21:00 United States EIA- Nat Gas, Change Bcf 4 Feb, w/e Cubic foot -237B

14-Feb 21:00 United States Nat Gas-EIA Implied Flow 4 Feb, w/e Cubic foot -237B

14-Feb China (Mainland) Exports YY Jan -3.3% Percent -4.4%

14-Feb China (Mainland) Imports YY Jan -9.0% Percent -7.6%

14-Feb China (Mainland) Trade Balance USD Jan 33.50B USD 57.06B

14-Feb China (Mainland) Yuan-Denominated Exports Jan Percent 0.2%

14-Feb China (Mainland) Yuan-Denominated Imports Jan Percent -3.1%

14-Feb China (Mainland) Yuan-Denominated Trade Ba Jan CNY 394.99B

15-Feb 07:00 China (Mainland) PPI YY Jan 0.4% Percent 0.9%

15-Feb 07:00 China (Mainland) CPI YY Jan 2.0% Percent 1.9%

15-Feb 07:00 China (Mainland) CPI MM Jan 0.5% Percent 0.0%

15-Feb 07:30 China (Mainland) TR IPSOS PCSI Feb Index (diffusion) 71.13

15-Feb 07:30 India TR IPSOS PCSI Feb Index (diffusion) 64.33

15-Feb 15:30 United States Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM Jan 0.2% Percent

15-Feb 15:30 United States Retail Sales MM Jan 0.1% Percent

15-Feb 15:30 United States Retail Ex Gas/Autos Jan Percent

15-Feb 15:30 United States Retail Control Jan Percent

15-Feb 15:30 United States Retail Sales YoY Jan Percent

15-Feb 17:00 India Bank Loan Growth 28 Jan, w/e Percent

15-Feb 17:00 India Deposit Growth 28 Jan, w/e Percent

15-Feb 17:00 India FX Reserves, USD 4 Feb, w/e USD

15-Feb 18:30 Russia Industrial Output Jan 1.3% Percent 2.0%

15-Feb 19:00 United States NY Fed Manufacturing Feb 6.00 Index 3.90

15-Feb 19:00 United States Import Prices MM Jan -0.2% Percent -1.0%

15-Feb 19:00 United States Export Prices MM Jan -0.4% Percent -0.6%

15-Feb 19:45 United States Industrial Production MM Jan 0.2% Percent 0.3%

15-Feb 19:45 United States Capacity Utilization SA Jan 78.7% Percent 78.7%

15-Feb 19:45 United States Manuf Output MM Jan 0.2% Percent 1.1%

15-Feb 19:45 United States Industrial Production YoY Jan Percent 3.95%

15-Feb 20:30 United States U Mich Sentiment Prelim Feb 94.5 Index 91.2

15-Feb 20:30 United States U Mich Conditions Prelim Feb Index 108.8

15-Feb 20:30 United States U Mich Expectations Prelim Feb Index 79.9

15-Feb 20:30 United States U Mich 1Yr Inf Prelim Feb Percent 2.7%

15-Feb 20:30 United States U Mich 5-Yr Inf Prelim Feb Percent 2.6%

15-Feb 22:30 United States NOPA-Soy Crush Jan Bushel (56lb) 171.759M

15-Feb 22:30 United States Bean Oil Stocks Jan Pound 1.498B

16-Feb 02:30 United States Net L-T Flows,Exswaps Dec USD 37.6B

16-Feb 02:30 United States Foreign Buying, T-Bonds Dec USD -9.3B

16-Feb 02:30 United States Overall Net Capital Flows Dec USD 31.0B

16-Feb 02:30 United States Net L-T Flows,Incl.Swaps Dec USD 25.3B

CURRENCY

16KSTREET - 09TH FEBRUARY 2019

Activity at Andhra Bank, Coimbatore. Activity at Andhra Bank, Somajiguda.

Activity at Andhra Bank, Anantpur. Activity at Syndicate Bank, Bhimavaram.

Activity at Union Bank, Nashik Branch Activity done at Bank of Baroda, Ajmer

Activity at Andhra Bank, Davangere. Activity at Andhra Bank, Ropar.