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Polk Presentation
- for AASA Forum
Beijing Polk-CATARC Shanghai, March 2008
Page 2© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
Content
• Company introduction.
• China Passenger Car market 2007.
• Registration volume since 2002.
• Parts analysis based on registration data.
• Our new product developments in 2008.
Page 3© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
• Founded in 1870 with more than 80 years’ experience in automotive industry
• Operating globally in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific with 1,500 employees
• We provide services to every global automotive brand
• Our core purpose is:
– to collect and interpret data, and apply our automotive business expertise to help our clients make good business decisions and implement change on a global basis
R. L. Polk is a global automotive expert
Page 4© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
Selection of our clients worldwide
Page 5© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
• Polk China is a Joint Venture between R. L. Polk & Co and the Chinese Automotive Technology and Research
Centre (CATARC - 中国汽车技术研究中心 )
• Active in the Chinese market since January 1st, 2002
• China clients include major OEMs like VW, AUDI, BMW, Honda, Toyota, Ferrari, Nissan, Mercedes-Benz, Peugeot, Foton and Hyundai Finance
Beijing Polk-CATARC
Page 6© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
Content
• Company introduction.
• China Passenger Car market 2007.
• Registration volume since 2002.
• Parts analysis based on registration data.
• Our new product developments in 2008.
Page 7© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
6 year history (2002 – 2007)
VIN
Origin (imported / domestic)
OEM
Brand
Model
Engine displacement
Transmission
Production date
Registration date
Body color (from 2007)
Vehicle Information
National level
Province level
City level
District level (county level
city or county)
Postal code level
Geography Information
Property type
(personal / company)
Purchase type
(loan / cash)
Gender (from 2007)
Age (from 2007)
Owner Information
Passenger vehicle registration data – Data elements
Model and Geography Segmentation
Polk model segmentation – Body style and Vehicle size
Customized model segmentation
Customized geography segmentation
Page 8© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
Data Comparison
Registration data can reflect China Passenger vehicle market domestic demand more accurately than wholesale data
Note:(1) Passenger Vehicle includes Sedan, Hatchback, Coupe, Cabrio, Roadster, Wagon, SUV and MPV, excluding VAN and pick-up. (2) Wholesale data includes export and domestic demand, excludes import data. So registration data reflects the domestic demand.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
PV
re
sg
istr
ati
on
vo
lum
e(u
nit)
PV registration data
PV wholesale data
Stock increase led to wholesale data higher in Nov and Dec, lower in Jan
Page 9© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
PV Registration Volume by Year
PV registration in 2007 maintained its steady growth, reaching 4,663,245 units, a year-on-year growth of 21.9%
118
198
237
302
382
466
67.0%
20.2%
27.1% 26.5%
21.9%
0
100
200
300
400
500
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
PV
re
gis
tra
tio
n u
nit
s (
10
k)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
YO
Y G
row
th (
%)
PV registration data(10k)
YOY Growth(%)
Note: PV includes Sedan, Hatchback, Coupe, Cabrio, Roadster, Wagon, SUV and MPV, excluding VAN and pick-up.
Page 10© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
PV Registration Volume and YoY Growth by Province
Note: PV includes Sedan, Hatchback, Coupe, Cabrio, Roadster, Wagon, SUV and MPV, excluding VAN and pick-up.
90%
Page 11© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
19.5% 23.2% 25.8% 27.6% 27.1% 29.9%
47.5% 37.0% 30.2% 24.5% 24.2%24.7%
8.0%10.5%
12.4%12.9% 14.7%
14.1%
2.0%5.1% 8.5% 11.4% 10.5% 7.6%
23.0% 24.2% 23.0% 23.6% 23.5% 23.8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Chinese
Korean
American
European
Japanese
Market share of Japanese brands grew steadily and accounted for nearly 30% in 2007
Origin AnalysisM
ark
et
Sh
are
(%)
Page 12© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
26.8%
39.1%
6.6%
23.7%
8.6%
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
Hatchback Sedan MPV SUV Others
Registration
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
YOY%
2006 2007 YOY%
Avg. YOY% of PV market : 21.9%
Body Style Analysis
SUVs achieved faster year-on-year growth than any other body styles in 2007
PV Market Growth ( by body style)
Page 13© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
Segmentation Analysis
The medium segment accounted for nearly 50% of the total PV market in 2007M
ark
et
Sh
are
(%)
6.1% 6.2% 7.2% 8.2% 7.0% 6.2%
21.0% 23.5% 23.6% 21.1% 20.6%17.0%
35.6% 32.3%36.7% 40.5% 42.6%
46.6%
25.1% 25.4%20.9% 18.9% 18.9% 20.0%
12.2% 12.5% 11.6% 11.3% 10.9% 10.2%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Large
UpperMedium
Medium
Small
Mini
Page 14© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
Legend
Top 5 Provinces
of Jap Brands Market Share
**Japanese brands’ weight in provinces’ PV market
Japanese Brands
Market Share – Total 2007
Jap Brands Total Reg.: 1,392,139
National Aver. Market Share: 29.9%
1. Japanese Brands Analysis - Market Share by Province
Prov. Market Share
Guangdong 49.8%
Hainan 43.2%
Fujian 36.9%
Zhejiang 35.1%
Liaoning 30.9%
Higher than 40%29.9% - 40%
25% - 29.9%
- 25%0%
Page 15© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
YOY Growth ComparisonJap Brands Vs. Province Market
Total 2007 vs. Total 2006
Top 5 Provinces
of Jap Brands YOY Growth
Legend
1. Japanese Brands Analysis - Japanese Brands YOY Growth Vs. Total Market YOY Growth by Province
Jap Brands YOY Growth Higher than Province Market
Jap Brands YOY Growth Lower than Province Market
Prov. YOY Growth
Tibet 89.9%
Qinghai 75.9%
Gansu 60.6%
Henan 52.9%
Hunan 48.8%
Page 16© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
More new models were released by Japanese OEMs in 2006 and 2007
1. Japanese Brands Analysis - New Models
6 7
25
10
182
8
16
14
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Korean American Chinese European Japanese
Imported
Domestic
8
15
2526
32
Note: “new model” includes models just launched ,facelifts and new generation models, excludes small modifications and versions
Page 17© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
1. Camry - Winner in Upper Medium Sedan Segment
Camry was released in Jun 2006, its market share reaching 20% in the upper medium sedan segment in 2007 .Magotan performed below expectation with its market share only reaching 5%.
New model release analysis
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0 6 12 18 24sh
are
in u
pp
er
me
diu
m s
eg
me
nt
(%
)
Accumulated time after release(month)
Camry Magotan Passat-lingyu
Page 18© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54
Accord life-cycle analysis
The 7th generation introduced in Feb 2003
The 8th generation introduce in Jan 2008
Present analysis Performance forecast
60 66 72 78 88 …… …… ……
Average share:18.3%
Average share:27.7% Average
share:25.4%
Average share:19.2%
Average share:14.8%
The life cycle of the 8th generation Accord may be similar to that of the 7th generation, reaching its peak in the second year
1. Japanese Brands Analysis - Accord’s Life-cycle
Accumulated time after release ( month)
Page 19© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
ZHEJIANG
YUNNANXINJIANG
TIBET
TIANJIN
SICHUAN
SHANXI
SHANGHAI
SHANDONG
SHAANXI
QINGHAI
NINGXIALIAONING
JILINJIANGXI
JIANGSU
INNER MONGOLIA
HUNANHUBEI
HENAN
HEILONGJIANG
HEBEIHAINAN
GUIZHOU
GUANGXI
GUANGDONG
GANSU
FUJIAN
CHONGQING
BEIJING
ANHUI
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
2. SUV Analysis - by Province
SUV market share in PV was higher in the northwest region, and some other regions like Anhui and Beijing also showed rapid growth
SUV Registration YOY%
SU
V S
hare in
PV
SUV Registration Growth ( 2007)
SUV Share in PV ( National ) 7.2%
National YOY% of SUV 39.1%
Page 20© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
• SUV models priced between RMB150,000-250,000 achieved a significant increase• Luxury SUV models were hot sellers in Zhejiang and Beijing
2. SUV Analysis - by Price Range
Page 21© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
In terms of segment, the main driving force for SUVs in 2007 came form the medium segment, with the CRV leading the growth
0.3%
46.4%
16.5%
36.9%
0.3%
52.1%
16.5%
31.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Small Medium Upper Medium Large
se
gm
en
t sh
are
(%
)
2006 2007
Medium SUV YOY increase( unit)
CR-V 17,186
Tucson 14,037
Hover 10,699
Zhongtai2008 9,900
Tiggo 5,710
Total 62,761
2. SUV Analysis - by Segment
CR-VTucson……
JimnyTerios……
Santa FePaladin……
Land Cruiser Q7……
Page 22© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
2. SUV Analysis - Winner: Honda CRV
Released in Apr 2007, the 3rd generation CRV became the leader in the medium SUV market veryquickly with it’s share exceeding 30%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42
CR
V s
ha
re in
me
diu
m S
UV
(%
)
Accumulated time after release(month)
The 3rd CRV released in Apr 2007The 2nd CRV released in Apr 2004
The 2nd CRV’s share is 23.5% in it’s life-cycle.
Page 23© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
Registration Volume of PorscheCayenne Competitor Set :
Beijing( Jan-Dec 2007)
Total Cayenne competitor setRegistrations: 2,168 units
Legend of Registration volumeand dealerships locationsby brand
Beijing Jan-Dec 2007 by Post Code: Cayenne Competitor Set
Cayenne competitor set includes: Porsche Cayenne (incl. S and Turbo) Audi Q7 BMW X5 Mercedes-Benz ML Series Volkswagen Touareg
AUDI
BMW
MERCEDES-BENZ
PORSCHE
VOLKSWAGEN
OVER 50
30 to 50
10 to 30
5 to 10
0 to 5
Page 24© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
3. Medium Segment Analysis - Body Style
Sedans still dominated the medium segment with almost 80% of market share MPV and SUV segments showed rapid growth
Market Growth in Medium Segment ( by body style)
67.4%
56.3%
29.0%31.4%
24.4%
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Hatchback Sedan MPV SUV Others
Registration
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
YOY%
2006 2007 YOY%
Avg. YOY% of PV market : 33.1%Avg.YOY% of Medium
segment : 33.1%
Page 25© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
3. Medium Segment Analysis - Sedan
The top 5 models accounted for 36% of the total medium sedan market, but their year-on-year growth rates were much lower than the average rate.
Top 5 Models of Medium Sedan ( 2007) Top 5 Medium Sedan Growth on Registration
Note : Family II was released on Aug.31, 2006
JETTA10.7%
EXCELLE8.7%
ELANTRA6.6%
FAMILY II5.0%
SANTANA 30005.2%
Other mediumsedan63.8%
Body Style 2006 2007 YOY%
Medium SedanTotal
1,308,883 1,719,289 31.4%
JETTA 161,291 184,405 14.3%
EXCELLE 122,789 149,836 22.0%
ELANTRA 155,812 114,018 -26.8%
SANTANA 3000 75,267 88,761 17.9%
FAMILY II 22,202 85,784 286.4%
Other mediumsedan
771,522 1,096,485 42.1%
50 models included in Other medium sedan segment
Page 26© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
3. Medium Segment Analysis – Car Buyers
Compared to Excelle, Focus is more popular amongst the young and female buyers
30% 34%
70% 66%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Excelle Focus
Male
Female
Car Buyers’ Age Distribution of Excelle & Focus
Note: Excelle includes SW, sedan and HRV; Focus includes hatchback and sedan
Car Buyers’ Gender Distribution of Excelle & Focus
47%55%
46%39%
7% 7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Excelle Focus
>50
36-50
<35
Page 27© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
3. Medium Segment Analysis - Excelle sedan registration by grade and price
Excelle sedan registration by price
In terms of grade, Luxury 1.6 Excelle dominated the Excelle registration
By price, Excelle grades priced RMB117,800 and RMB127,800 were hot sellers
Year : 2007
Price : MSRP in Dec 2007
* Models in red color are the discontinued models
Grade
Price
Page 28© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
Content
• Company introduction.
• China Passenger Car market 2007.
• Registration volume since 2002.
• Parts analysis based on registration data.
• Our new product developments in 2008.
Page 29© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
Legend
Top 5 Provinces
China PV* Registrations
2002–2007 Total: 14,893,274
PV* PARC 2007: 19,577,912
2002-2007 PV* Reg. / PV* PARC:
OVER 76%
China PV* Registrations by Province (Year 2002-2007)
Province Registration Share
Guangdong 1,782,418 11.97%
Beijing 1,419,221 9.53%
Zhejiang 1,357,077 9.11%
Jiangsu 1,304,423 8.76%
Shandong 1,232,602 8.28%
OVER 1,000,000
500,000 to 1,000,000
300,000 to 500,000
100,000 to 300,000
0 to 100,000
Note: PV* includes Sedan, Hatchback, Coupe, Cabrio, Roadster, Wagon, excluding SUV, MPV, VAN and Pick-up.
PV* PARC 2007 : According to the statistics of MPS published Jan 4, 2008
Page 30© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
Top 5 Cities
Legend
City Registration Share
Beijing 1,419,221 9.53%
Shanghai 628,044 4.22%
Shenzhen 473,023 3.18%
Tianjin 430,054 2.89%
Chengdu 380,028 2.55%
OVER 500,000
100,000 to 500,000
50,000 to 100,000
10,000 to 50,000
0 to 10,000
China PV* Registrations by City (Year 2002-2007)
China PV* Registrations
2002–2007 Total: 14,893,274
PV* PARC 2007: 19,577,912
2002-2007 PV* Reg. / PV* PARC:
OVER 76%
Note: PV* includes Sedan, Hatchback, Coupe, Cabrio, Roadster, Wagon, excluding SUV, MPV, VAN and Pick-up.
PV* PARC 2007 : According to the statistics of MPS published Jan 4, 2008
Page 31© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
12.1%
6.9%7.4%
8.3%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2004 2005 2006 2007
China PV Market Credit Rate
Vehicle credit buying started to improve since its low point in 2005 Toyota, GM and VW finance schemes performed well in the Beijing market.
Credit rate
Average 5.8%
VW 7.2%
GM 7.3%
Toyota 11.3%
Beijing PV market credit rate
Total PV market credit rate
PV
ma
rke
t c
red
it r
ate
(%)
Page 32© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
Content
• Company introduction.
• China Passenger Car market 2007.
• Registration volume since 2002.
• Parts analysis based on registration data.
• Our new product developments in 2008.
Page 33© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
Rear Suspension Distribution in Registration 2005 - 2007
30.4% 30.1% 30.5%
35.4%27.8%
18.9%
9.1%17.7%
18.6%
13.9% 13.9%17.4%
11.2% 10.5% 14.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007
multiple links
trailing arm
torsion beam
double wishbones
twin-link
Rear Suspension Distribution of 5 Hot selling Medium Sedans / Hatchbacks
5 hot selling models accounted for 28% of the total medium passenger car market Market share of cars equipped with double wishbones kept decreasing
Note: 5 medium segment models include Hyundai Elantra, Buick Excelle, Nissan Tiida, Toyota Corolla, Haima Family
Page 34© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
Tire Type Distribution of 5 Hot selling Medium Sedans / Hatchbacks
5 hot selling models accounted for 28% of the total medium passenger car market Market share of cars equipped with tire type 195/60 R15 kept decreasing
Note: 5 medium segment models include Hyundai Elantra, Buick Excelle, Nissan Tiida, Toyota Corolla, Haima Family
41.65% 40.63% 45.08%
44.77%39.87%
24.28%
9.14% 17.68%
18.60%
11.39%4.44% 1.81% 0.66%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007
205/50 R16
205/55 R16
185/65 R15
195/60 R15
195/55 R15
Tire Type Distribution in Registration 2005 - 2007
Page 35© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
Content
• Company introduction.
• China Passenger Car market 2007.
• Registration volume since 2002.
• Parts analysis based on registration data.
• Our new product developments in 2008.
Page 36© 2008 Beijing Polk-CATARC All Rights Reserved
New product development in 2008
• Commercial vehicle registrations data.
• China Passenger vehicle Forecasts , model and regional level.
• New Price & Specification system with model volume.
Questions ?
Beijing Polk-CATARC
1160 Sunflower Tower 37 Maizidian Street, Chaoyang District Beijing 100026, PR China Tel +86 10 85276955 Fax +86 10 85275782 www.polk.com
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