Islamism, Religiosity and Fertility in the Muslim world Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College, University...

Islamism, Religiosity and Fertility in the Muslim world

Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College, University of London/Belfer

Center, Kennedy School, Harvard

e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk

Religiosity

• Affiliation/Denomination (Do you consider yourself a member of…)

• Attendance (How often do you attend?)

• Religiosity (Are you a religious person?)

• Religious Traditionalism (Belief in Hell, Devil, Bible as word of God)

Different studies use one or more of these measures

Religiosity and Fertility

"One of the most central injunctions of virtually all traditional religions is to strengthen the family, to encourage people to have children, to encourage women to stay home and raise children, and to forbid abortion, divorce, or anything that interferes with high rates of reproduction." (Norris and Inglehart 2004)

Second Demographic Transition Theory

• van de Kaa 1987; Surkyn and Lesthaeghe 2004

• Lestaheghe and Neidert 2006

Thesis: As societies modernize, religiosity becomes a more important determinant of fertility

Studies on Religiosity and Fertility

• Adsera 2004 on Spain between 1985 and 1999

• Also finding a link: Lehrer 1996; Berghammer, Philipov, and Sobotka 2006; Kaufmann 2007, 2008

• Mixed Results: Westoff and Jones (1979); Frejka and Westoff 2006

Religious Traditionalism and Fertility

• Fargues (2000) and Berman (2000) on ultra-Orthodox Jews

• Hout, Wilde and Greeley (2001) on Evangelical Protestants; Sherkat (2001) on Mormons and Hispanic Catholics

• Berman and Stepanyan (2003) on Madrassa-attending Muslims

• Little else on Islamism

Source: ‘The Moment of Truth’, Ha’aretz, 8 February 2007

Decline of Liberal Protestants

• Based on affiliation (ie baptism for Christians)• Applying affiliation data to country demographic

projections

Past and Projected Global Religious Affiliation (World Religious Database)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Christian Muslim Hindu Nonreligious +Atheist

Other

1900

1970

2000

2025

coun

try

relig

tot fertility rate1.4048 7.1

.592294

.98574

Source: 2000 WVS and World Bank.

Religiosity and Fertility in Muslim Countries, 2000

Tanzania

Jordan

Egypt

Algeria

Bosnia

Iran

Azerbaijan

'95-97

Bangladesh

Albania 2000

Turkey

Indonesia

Pakistan

Morocco

Nigeria

Uganda

Albania '95-97

Is Islam Different?

• Most Muslim countries more conformist in religious terms (ie fewer seculars, less switching)

• Second Demographic Transition More Muted

• Puritanical Islam associated with cities, vs. rural heterodoxy/folk religion

Islamism and Fertility• ‘Our country has a lot of capacity. It has the

capacity for many children to grow in it…Westerners have got problems. Because their population growth is negative, they are worried and fear that if our population increases, we will triumph over them.’ – Mahmoud Ahmadinedjad, 2006

• ‘You people are supporting…the enemies of Islam and Muslims...Personnel were trained to distribute family planning pills. The aim of this project is to persuade the young girls to commit adultery’ – Taliban Council note to murdered family planning clinic employee, Kandahar, 2008

Attitudes to Shari'a and Fertility, Islamic Countries, by Urban and Rural, 2000 WVS (Muslims Only)

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.3

3.5

Str. Agree Agree Neither Disagree Str. Disagree

Ch

ildre

n E

ve

r B

orn

city > 100k

town < 10k

Source: WVS 1999-2000. N = 2796 respondents in towns under 10,000 and 1561 respondents in cities over 100,000. Asked in Algeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Egypt.

But Islamism shows significant individual-level effects

Source: Westoff and Frejka 2007

European Islam: A Reflection of Things to Come?

Conclusions: Fertility

• At the individual level, religiosity and Islamism predict higher fertility

• At the country level, no compositional effects are evident

• Evidence for SDT effect in more 'modern' contexts, i.e. Cities

• We would expect a sharpened SDT effect with modernization

• Islamist population growth in Muslim settings appears to be a long-term process, unlike Israel, thus unlikely to affect politics until after 2050

• Future Research: projections of religious and Islamist populations for Muslim world, Europe, North America

• Own project: http://www.sneps.net/RD/religdem.html

• IIASA projections project: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~terama/Relig.html

Less Fertility Good for Country v Islamic System of Govt

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

very good(N=896)

fairly good(N=578)

fairly bad(N=260)

very bad(N=43)

Islamic System

Les

s fe

rtil

ity

go

od

Agree

Disagree

Having an Islamic government, where religious authorities have absolute power

ARDA Youth, Emotional Energy, and Political Violence: The Cases of Egypt and Saudi Arabia Survey, 2005

Sharia as Law of Land and Desirable Fertility in the Country

Sharia and the Need for Fewer Children in the Country, Muslim Youth in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, 2005

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

v. important important somew hat imp less imp not imp

Sharia as Law

Fewer Children Better

Disagree

ARDA Youth, Emotional Energy, and Political Violence: The Cases of Egypt and Saudi Arabia Survey, 2005

Fertility, Religiosity and Islamist Voting, Turkey, by province, 2007

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%K

asta

mon

u

Kar

abük

Gire

sun

Ord

u

Bile

cik

Kar

aman

Küt

ahya

Siv

as

Ela

zig

Sak

arya

Mu?

la

Yoz

gat

Kon

ya

I?d?

r

Mu?

Ni?

de

Mal

atya

Koc

aeli

Yal

ova

Ank

ara

?sta

nbul

AK

P V

ote

, 200

7

AK vote 2007

Mosques per Pop

total_fertility_rate

Source: Turkish National Statistics 2007, and own calculations.