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White Avoidance or Attraction? Why white British tend to leave diverse wards Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College [email protected] ; [email protected] http://www.sneps.net/research-interests/whit eworkingclass twitter: @epkaufm

White Avoidance or Attraction? Why white British tend to leave diverse wards Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College [email protected]@bbk.ac.uk;

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Page 1: White Avoidance or Attraction? Why white British tend to leave diverse wards Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uke.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk;

White Avoidance or Attraction?

Why white British tend to leave diverse wards

Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris,Birkbeck College

[email protected]; [email protected]://www.sneps.net/research-interests/whiteworkingclass

twitter: @epkaufm

Page 2: White Avoidance or Attraction? Why white British tend to leave diverse wards Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uke.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk;

White Flight?

Page 3: White Avoidance or Attraction? Why white British tend to leave diverse wards Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uke.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk;

Save our Census!• The permission of the Office for National Statistics to use the

Longitudinal Study is gratefully acknowledged, as is the help provided by staff of the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information & User Support (CeLSIUS). CeLSIUS is supported by the ESRC Census of Population Programme (Award Ref: ES/K000365/1). The authors alone are responsible for the interpretation of the data.

• Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.

• The results presented are based on a test version of the LS database incorporating 2011 Census data. Figures may be subject to change when the final version of this database is released in November 2013.

Page 4: White Avoidance or Attraction? Why white British tend to leave diverse wards Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uke.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk;

Quintiles (ONS LS 2011)

Diverse fifth of Wards

Homogeneous four-fifths of Wards

2011 40.7% Minority 4.9% Minority

2001 27.8% Minority 2.4% Minority

1991 19.8% Minority 1.5% Minority

White British net outflow

Minority net outflow

Page 5: White Avoidance or Attraction? Why white British tend to leave diverse wards Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uke.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk;

Predicted Ward Minority Change among Inter-ward Movers, 1991-2011 (BHPS/UKHLS)

% Ethnic Minority in Ward a year ago

% C

hang

e in

Eth

nic

Min

oriti

es in

War

d

Page 6: White Avoidance or Attraction? Why white British tend to leave diverse wards Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uke.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk;

0.1

.2.3

.4P

r(Q

c01_

11=

=-1

)

1 2 3 4 5white01quint

whbrit11=0 whbrit11=1

Predictive Margins with 95% CIs

Predicted Probability of Move Away from Diversity, Inter-ward Movers, 2001-11 (ONS LS)

Most Diverse Ward

Whitest ward

Prob

abili

ty o

f mov

e to

less

div

erse

war

d qu

intil

e

Page 7: White Avoidance or Attraction? Why white British tend to leave diverse wards Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uke.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk;

White Flight?:Yougov-ESRC-BBK Survey, August 2013

Moved To Whiter Ward past 10 yrs

Moved To More Diverse Ward past 10 yrs Sample

Not White British 53% 47% 47

White British 62% 38% 239

Total 60% 40% 286

Page 8: White Avoidance or Attraction? Why white British tend to leave diverse wards Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uke.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk;

Comfort with spouse of different race among ward movers, White British only (Yougov/ESRC survey)

To WhiterTo Diverse Sample

very comfortable 61% 39% 83

fairly comfortable 67% 33% 33neither comfortable n 57% 43% 46

fairly uncomfortable 64% 36% 11

very uncomfortable 76% 24% 25don't know 58% 42% 24Total 63% 37% 222

Page 9: White Avoidance or Attraction? Why white British tend to leave diverse wards Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uke.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk;
Page 10: White Avoidance or Attraction? Why white British tend to leave diverse wards Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uke.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk;

Cultural Amenities not Ethnocentrism

• “If the church bulletin board is where people advertise rooms for rent, blacks will rent rooms from blacks and whites from whites because of a communication system…correlated with color” – Thomas Schelling 1978

• White British family/friend/association networks and minority networks differ in England, affecting where people relocate once they decide to move

• Cultural amenities (food, recreation, religion) are also correlated with ethnic composition

Page 11: White Avoidance or Attraction? Why white British tend to leave diverse wards Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uke.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk;

Future Research

• Look at individual ethnic minorities to screen out friends & family effect

• Each ethnic group is relatively attracted to own area, i.e. Caribbeans to Caribbean areas, but white/minority appears to remain important