Global Geopolitics and International Conflict

Alejandres Gannon

Global Geopolitics and International Conflict

Video of the Day

• Not all nuclear wars are created equal• Escalation potential and population density

War – what is it good for?

Section Uno (One)

Nuclear Chemistry

The Effects of a Nuclear Explosion

1 kt device

13 kt device (Hiroshima)

1 mt device

= 1,000 tons of TNT

= 13 X 1,000 tons of TNT

= 1,000 X 1,000 tons of TNT

http://www.nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

1. Acquire fissile material2. Enrich or produce the fissile material3. Assemble the bomb4. Option upgrade: fusion5. Mount bomb on delivery vehicle

How to Build a Nuclear Bomb

Plutonium• Doesn’t exist in large quantities naturally, must be produced

in a nuclear reactor by Uranium 238

Uranium• Occurs naturally as mixture of U-235 (weapons grade) and

U-238 (not weapons trade)

1. Acquire Fissile Material

Plutonium• Pu-239 is easily fissionable• Pu-240 is notUranium• Enrichment – increasing the proportion of U235 to higher

than 90%• U235 is called HEU (weapons grade)• U238 is called LEU (nuclear reactor grade)

2. Enrich or produce fissile material

Fission weapons• First type of nuclear weapon• Assembled using plutonium (Pu-239) or enriched uranium (U-

235)• Gun assembly – fissile uranium fired at fissile uranium target to

split the uranium atom• Implosion – fissile material surrounded by high explosives that

compress the mass• Limited in size and hard to assemble larger onesFission-fusion weapons• Requires fission to trigger the fusion• Fuse two hydrogen isotopes (deuterium and tritium)• Much larger explosion and variable-yield

Types of Nuclear Reactions

How to Build a Nuclear Bomb

Uranium Plutonium

Fission: Gun Method Implosion(Up to 500kt)

Fusion: H-bomb (“Thermonuclear”)(Up to 100mt)

Nuclear PhysicsSection Dos (Two)

3 Types of delivery systems1. Gravity bombs• Delivered by planes/bombers• Very large and heavy, limited accuracy2. Ballistic missiles (strategic nuclear weapons)• Carried by a missile using a ballistic trajectory• Exit the earth’s atmosphere• Largest range weapons3. Cruise missiles (tactical nuclear weapons)• Fly at low altitude using GPS• Shorter range but difficult to detect early• Have flight maneuverability

B1, B2, B52 66 B52s (20 SNWs) 95 B1s (24 TNWs or 8 SNWs) 12 B2s (16 TNWs)

Recallable and flexibleSlowestForward deployable

Gravity bombs

Launched from land (ICBM) or sea (SLBM)Flight path• Boost phase – 3-5min phase going towards

the atmosphere• Midcourse phase – 25min phase in

spaceflight• Reentry phase – 2min phase as it reenters

the earth’s atmosphere above the targetMIRV – multiple independently targeted reentry vehicles

Ballistic Missiles

Ballistic Missiles1. First stage

boost motor2. Second stage

boost motor3. Third state

boost motor4. Post-Boost

vehicle separates from rocket

5. Preparation for re-entry vehicle deployment

6. Deployment of re-entry vehicles

7. Re-entry into the atmosphere

8. Boom

Ballistic Missiles

Section Tres (Three)

Causes of War

Why do conflicts turn into war?Conflicts over interest vs conflict of ideas

A) General

1) Territorial disputes1) Historically important2) Strong norm exists today about the sanctity of borders3) Means current territorial disputes are deadly4) West Bank, Gaza Strip, Golan Heights, Kashmir, Spratley Islands

B) Conflicts Over Interests

1) Government disputes1) Control the leadership of various countries2) Soviet Union (Czech 1968, Afghanistan 1979), United States

(Grenada 1983, Iraq 2003, Syria 2013)2) Economic conflict

1) Economic transition affect balance of power but rare2) Military leverage not effective in economic conflicts

B) Conflicts Over Interests

1) Ethnic conflicts1) Ethnocentric origins2) Ethnic group may want own state or to join neighboring state or

have no home3) Kurds in Turkey, Iraq, etc

C) Conflicts Over Ideas

1) Religious conflicts1) Fundamentalist movements challenge secular political organizations2) Difficult to de-escalate3) Compromise unlikely

2) Ideological conflicts1) Affects revolutions that are destabilizing because sudden change2) Easier to mobilize domestic support

C) Conflicts Over Ideas

Section Cuatro (Four)

Nuclear Deterrence

DeterrenceA situation in which the threat of force is used to prevent a state from engaging in behaviour that it threatens to undertake

CompellanceWhen the threat of force or the use of force is applied to another country or actor in order to coerce them into altering behaviour that threatens us

Difference between the twoDeterrence exists to prevent changes to the status quoCompellance forces a country to change its current behaviour using the threat of force or the use of force

Crisis StabilityCrisis Instability – Propensity to escalate from peace to crisis and crisis to war• Crisis stable – rarely get to crisis and crisis rarely gets to war• Crisis unstable – many things causes crisis and crisis often cause war

What makes deterrence work?Both actors must engage in rational purposive behaviour motivated by a desire for survivalThe targeted actor is unitary meaning they can enforce compliance with the demand articulated by the threatener

Communication of IntentionsWeapons exist primarily for the purpose of projecting intentions and having those intentions communicated persuasively to an adversaryIf a deterrence posture can’t be communicated to the adversary then the adversary cannot be deterred

1)Limit the inflationary value of threats2)Limit lines drawn in the sand3)History of follow up4)Automatic response5)Graduated escalation

Effective Deterrence

http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/256925/november-30-2009/better-know-a-lobby---ploughshares-fund

Section Cinco (Five)

Hotspots

Facts• 1,480 SNWs, 1,022 non-deployed SNWs, 2,000 TNWsMagnitude• Size of countries• Horizontal escalation• Dead HandTimeframe• Minutemen IIIProbability• Accidents• History

United States vs Russia

90 Chinese missiles, 240 warheadsDe-mate missiles, missile location, refueling“Minimum deterrent posture” and NFU pledgeCounterforce vs Countervalue targeting

United States vs China

• Territorial-base conflict• Resources in the region• Oil• Natural gas• No forum for negotiations

South China Sea

• Territorial-base conflict• Resources in the region• Oil• Natural gas• No forum for negotiations

South China Sea

1947 – partition of British India 1998 – nuclear capable

India vs Pakistan

Missile delivery• India – short range ballistic

missiles• Pakistan – F16 air strikes

Lower yield weaponsPublic health

infrastructure

India vs Pakistan

Only Middle East country with operational nuclear weaponsCovert nuclear capability and deterrence

”Samson grasped the two middle pillars on which the house rested, and braced himself against them, the one with his right hand and the other with his left. And Samson said, “Let me die with the Philistines!” And he bent with all his might so that the house fell on the lords and all the people who were in it. So the dead whom he killed at his death were more than those whom he killed in his life” - Judges 16: 29-30

Israel

• Small area but a lot of empty space• Regional relations and ethnic/tribal ties• No other nuclear countries• Iran

Middle East

North KoreaBrief History1956 – Soviet Union begins training1984 – Nuclear reactors built1989 – US confirms nuclear program 1993 – Missile testing begins2002 – AQ Khan2006 – 1st nuclear test (0.5kt)2009 – 2nd nuclear test (2kt)2012 – missile test2013 – 3rd nuclear test (6-7kt)

North KoreaWeapons• 50-60kg of plutonium• ?? HEU

Section Seis (Six)

Non-Nuclear Hotspots

14th Century Black Plague – 25% of European populationSpanish Flu after WWI – 100 million dead, disease adapted to hostTypes• Choking agents (chlorine)• Blister agents (mustard gas)• Blood agents (cyanide)• Nerve agents (sarin gas)Ideal chemical weapon is:• Highly lethal (inevitable immunity and pop density)• Easy, cheap, and safe to produce and store• Easy to distribute (speed of spread and response time)

Chemical weapons

Types• Viruses (Smallpox, Ebola, AIDS, Foot & Mouth) • Microorganisms that produce toxins (Botulinum, Ricin, Tetanus)• Bacteria (Anthrax, Cholera, Plague)

Ideal biological weapon is:• Highly lethal• Easy, cheap, and safe to produce and store• Easily spread• Has a long incubation period

Biological weapons

It’s not that bad• 9/11 - 2,000 dead• Difficult to pull off• Al-Qaeda weakening• Access to WMDIt’s that bad• Fear and panic, infrastructure• Access to WMD• National response

Terrorism