GECAFS DSS Inaugural Workshop Jan 11, 2005 Steve Sonka University of Illinois

GECAFS DSS Inaugural Workshop

Jan 11, 2005

Steve Sonka

University of Illinois

Agenda• Philosophy

• Demonstration

• A Case Study– Results, – Effects, and – Lessons

Philosophy (1)• Factors in the “external environment”

– Government policies– Technology– Biogeophysical

• Human decision making processes are challenged when decisions involve– Time lags (between decision and outcome)– Uncertainty– Causal ambiguity

Philosophy (2)

• Strategic versus operating choices, – Climate versus weather– Operating choices

• Routine• DSS’s enhance

– Strategic choices• Humans & DSS’s tend to struggle

• Effective DSS’s for strategic choice– As much to generate better questions– As to provide answers

Philosophy (3)Decisions, Decisions, Decisions

• DSS’s inform, don’t make decisions

• Decision will come from some group process

• DSS not likely to be “used” by decision maker

• Credibility must be earned, but not by use

• Decision maker(s) won’t be able to give enough attention

• Decision makers– Can describe problems/issues/concern– DSS developer is responsible for design

Visualization Principles:Tufte

• Escape the Flatland (of 2 dimensions)

• Color

• Compared to what ?

• Time as the 4th dimension

• Macro / micro perspectives

The Case Study• Client

– Illinois Soybean Program Operating Board– NGO– Mission components

• Market development• Research

• Charge: Help us better anticipate the future global need for protein– Longer term perspective– Enhance commonality of perspective– Improve communication across sector

The Dynamics of Protein and Malnutrition

• Charge from soybean industry leaders: Help us better anticipate the future global need for protein– Longer term– Commonality of perspective– Accurate, science-based methods

The Protein Consumption Dynamics (PCD) Model

• The PCD model– A system dynamics simulation engine

(Powersim)– A visualization delivery tool (In3D)

• Driving forces in the simulation– Population– Total income– Diet choices relative to per capita income

Relationships Underlyingthe PCD Model

TotalAppetite

Per CapitaAppetite

Total Population

Total Income

Cultural Influences

Income DistributionPer Capita Proportion

Malnourished

TotalMalnourished

Commodities of Interest

Regional Aggregations

Move to Visualization

• Fisher, D. K. 2000. Assessing how information affects cognitive maps of strategic issues. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation. University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.

• Fisher, D. K., S. T. Sonka, and R. E. Westgren. "Strategic Decision Making in the Quasi-Government Sector: The Illinois Soybean Program Operating Board" International Journal of Organization Theory and Behavior, 7(2004):42-65.

Effects

• Quasi – experimental measurements

• Anecdotal interpretation of actual decisions

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Before After

Population

Income

Malnutrition

Meeting demand

New markets

Ranking of Strategic Issues:Before and After Intervention

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10

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Before After

Population

Income

Malnutrition

Meeting demand

New markets

Marketing

Soy foods

Global

Health benefits

Ranking of Strategic Issues:Before and After Intervention

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k: (

1 is

MO

ST

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rtan

t)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Before After

Population

Income

Malnutrition

Meeting demand

New markets

Marketing

Soy foods

Global

Health benefits

New uses

Biotech acceptance

Soybean price

GMOs

Ranking of Strategic Issues:Before and After Intervention

Ran

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1 is

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Implications / Effects• Existing marketing / promotion skills and

resources are aligned with past, not the future (geography and practices)

• Global income growth is #1 strategic issue (international trade policy)

• Efforts to reduce malnutrition should be on the strategic agenda for human and business reasons (World Initiative for Soy in Human Health)

• Development of Version 2 funded

Lessons• Strategic choices / DSSs have distinctive

characteristics

• Philosophy: goal is better conversation

• Visualization: Tufte principles are helpful

• Case study: – intervention and– the IT-based tools