Future Trends Impacting WFI : New Wisdoms

Future Trends Impacting WFI : Future Trends Impacting WFI :

New WisdomsNew Wisdoms                          

Annimacwww.annimac.com.au

Wesfarmers Federation Insurance National Conference

Growth Through Wisdom Focus Innovation 27 April 2005 Perth W Australia

Speaker

Conference Keynote Conference Keynote

“ “ Everything that has beenEverything that has been

standard practice for 5 standard practice for 5

generations on my family generations on my family

farm is now wrong. farm is now wrong. ””

Great Southern WA crop & sheep farmer, age 38Great Southern WA crop & sheep farmer, age 38

Rate of Change

5 minutes - new technology 5 days - new product or service every day - 1 million new web

pages

Change we have in one day

Our grandparents had in one year

Younger means faster

Technology e.g. by 2020

70 % types of jobs then

do not exist now because

80% technology not yet imagined

Driving all Drivers of ChangeDriving all Drivers of Change

Likely jobs in next 10 years :

• Director of Emerging Thought

• Chief Zookeeper - of people

• Chief Farm Technologist

• Creative Undertaker

• Agricultural Biotech Adviser

• Pasture Programmer

• Valuer of Intangible Assets *

• Human Interface Manager *

* 2003

now Technology not wealth

• Access

• Skilling

50 % world popn no phone

Gap : Haves - Have Nots Gap : Haves - Have Nots

Changing Nature of WorkChanging Nature of Work

Two major trends :Two major trends :

Co opitalismCo opitalism

Cooperative capitalismCooperative capitalism

SustainabilitySustainability

Development harmonyDevelopment harmony

• Project based Team basedProject based Team based

• Relationships Relationships

• One off alliances - consortiaOne off alliances - consortia

• Globally networkedGlobally networked

• Fast flat skilled decision makingFast flat skilled decision making

• Values drivenValues driven Quad Bottom LineQuad Bottom Line • Asia marketsAsia markets

Changing Nature of Work :Changing Nature of Work :

Emerging values for BusinessEmerging values for Business

intergenerational equity

leaving our planet to future generations in as good as or better state than it is today

sustainable development human development ( financial economic and social ) in harmony with the natural environment

eco-footprinting

the assessment of our current usage and 'fair share' of global resources

Farmer’s paddock Williams Albany Hwy WA March 03

Changing Nature of Employment :Changing Nature of Employment :

Two major trends :Two major trends :

• CasualisationCasualisation

• Values drivenValues driven

• Contract based : ProjectsContract based : Projects

• Part timePart time

• Skill based Multi skillingSkill based Multi skilling

• Employee benefits negotiatedEmployee benefits negotiated

• Values driven not moneyValues driven not money• personal people planet personal people planet

• Global sourcingGlobal sourcing

Changing Nature of Employment :

Aus Small Business Trends ABS

1996 - 2001

Number of small biz in Aus 1,505,924

Income increase over 5 yrs 18.6 %

including wages 29.9 %

profit up by 13.4 %

Number in capital cities 945, 320 only Hobart decreasing

Number outside capital cities 611,476

decreasing by 1 %

Small biz

Highest 5 yr growth outside capital cities :

SW Queensland 42.4 % Kimberley WA 41.7 % Outer Adelaide 37.4 % Central W Queensland 31.2 %

Decline in total income in 4 Regions :

Midlands WA - 1.1 % South Eastern WA - 3.9 % Upper Great Southern WA - 8.8% Northern Sth Australia - 4.8 %

Average income grew in all regions

ABS Estimates: Ave Annual Growth in Total Income of Small Businesses 1996 to 2001

Trends in farm income :

Future growth trends - small biz startup :

Domestic services - “ Do it for me ”

• home cleaning, maintenance and gardening

• healthy prepared meals and home catering

• shopping and delivery services

• home security systems and patrol services

• household waste disposal and recycling

• car care

• pool cleaning

• pet care

Start-ups

Community services

• travel & tourism • special interest education – leisure & learning • investment  & retirement planning • sports  & recreation • tailored accommodation facilities • home & health care • preventative health & alternative therapies • mobility & companionship services

Start-ups

Health & lifestyle

• alternative therapies • stress management, relaxation & meditation • personal counselling & self awareness • parenting skills & techniques • public speaking  & social etiquette • career & skills development • image consulting • personal security, self-defence & devices

Start-ups

Business services

• computer consultancy services • employment placement & staff contracting • accounting & business advisory services• serviced offices  & secretarial support • business planning  & information services • marketing & public relations

Start-ups

Tourism & Recreation

• ecotourism  & nature based tours • heritage  & nostalgia tours • backpacker tourism • farm-stays • special events e.g. country show days • concert  & sporting events

Major growth : On line e-business

Trends in Rural AustraliaTrends in Rural Australia

• Farming communities downsizingFarming communities downsizing

• Family farms corporatisingFamily farms corporatising

• Urban encroachmentUrban encroachment

• Ageing farm populationAgeing farm population

• Succession issues : youth issuesSuccession issues : youth issues

• Women as farm biz managersWomen as farm biz managers

• Slow uptake of technologySlow uptake of technology

• Slow uptake new knowledgeSlow uptake new knowledge

Trends of Climate Change

• Forecasters disagree long term

• Global warming impacting

• Some changes inevitable

• Aus second most arid continent

• Aus climate highly vulnerable

Trends of Climate Change : AusTrends of Climate Change : Aus

Aus climate cyclical - shorterAus climate cyclical - shorter

Aus ecosystems vulnerable to change :Aus ecosystems vulnerable to change :

• hi risk : coral reefs alpine mangrove wetlands savannahshi risk : coral reefs alpine mangrove wetlands savannahs

tropical forests deserts natural grasslandstropical forests deserts natural grasslands

Global warming impacting Aus :Global warming impacting Aus :

• increasing carbon dioxideincreasing carbon dioxide

• changing temperatures : hi certaintychanging temperatures : hi certainty

• changing rainfall : mod certainty changing rainfall : mod certainty

Likely impact of climate changeLikely impact of climate change 2030 2030

• COCO22 to 455 ppm : mostly good mostly good

• plant growth & water efficiencyplant growth & water efficiency

• Temperature warming : Temperature warming : 22°° to 4 to 4° C° C

• Rainfall change : mostly not good

• southwest : southwest : -20% to +5%-20% to +5%

• southeast, Qld : southeast, Qld : -10% to +5%-10% to +5%

• inland : inland : summer or autumnsummer or autumn

Some Specific ImpactsSome Specific Impacts

Wheat :Wheat :

• faster growth less grain fillingfaster growth less grain filling• high yield lower grain proteinhigh yield lower grain protein• not bread making or pasta grainnot bread making or pasta grain

Fruit :Fruit : esp apples stone fruits southern Ausesp apples stone fruits southern Aus

• less frost damage less chillingless frost damage less chilling• less bud burst lower fruit setless bud burst lower fruit set• lower yield reduced qualitylower yield reduced quality

Changing rainfall & temperature impact onChanging rainfall & temperature impact on

wheat production in Australia wheat production in Australia CSIRO 2001CSIRO 2001

Temperature increaseTemperature increase °°CC

Rainfall change %Rainfall change %Y

ield

r

esp

on

se

%Y

ield

r

esp

on

se

%20%20% 0%0% - 20%- 20%

High rainfall Pastures :High rainfall Pastures : • NSW Vic : CONSW Vic : CO22 & warming cancel out & warming cancel out• sthn Aus less winter spring rain sthn Aus less winter spring rain

• less plant production less plant production • less animal productionless animal production• higher temp : dairy cows less milkhigher temp : dairy cows less milk

Rangelands : Rangelands : delicate diversity threateneddelicate diversity threatened

• sthn Aus 10% less winter spring rain sthn Aus 10% less winter spring rain • less forage less animal productionless forage less animal production

• nthn Aus more summer rain COnthn Aus more summer rain CO22 • more forage poorer quality

• nthn sub / tropics move southnthn sub / tropics move south• natural vegetation unable to adapt natural vegetation unable to adapt

Growth in forests :Growth in forests :

if COif CO2 2 doubles with 3doubles with 3°°C temp increaseC temp increase

> 50%> 50%

25 25 toto 50% 50%

0 0 toto 25% 25%

-25 -25 toto -50% -50%

-50 -50 to to -25%-25%

< -50%< -50% No growthNo growth

Gap widening : Knowledge

• Haves / have nots

• Age generations

• Globally networked

Shifting Global ValuesShifting Global Values

now Technology not wealth

• Access

• Skilling

50 % world popn no phone

Gap : Haves - Have Nots Gap : Haves - Have Nots

Australian Population Pyramid

Aus Govt 2001

Gap : Age GenerationsGap : Age Generations

Four generations : Three worlds

• Baby Boomers 45 – 60 yrs Materialism• economic rationalists : profit• material values : tangibles• science as religion : rational

• Generation X 30 – 45 yrs• clones of Boomers : materialists or• copy younger : sustainability

Four generations : Three worlds

• DotComs 15 - 30 yrs Sustainability

• global identity• co opitalism• relationships• holistic win - win – win

• Cluetrain Manifesto “ The marketplace is a conversation ” www.cluetrainmanifesto.com

Gap : Age GenerationsGap : Age Generations

Chinese Technology CentreChinese Technology Centre

Gap : Age GenerationsGap : Age Generations

Four generations : Three worlds

• Ferals 0 – 15 yrs Virtual

. no limits

. no boundaries

. parallel universes . quantum everything

. invent their world

. beyond our imagining

. Indigo children

Gap : Globally NetworkedGap : Globally Networked

Those globally networked :

• access all knowledge

• empowered

• confident

• passionately committed

• global view future

• one planet : one future

Summary Impact for WFISummary Impact for WFI • transiting two worlds - accelerating

• values shift to sustainability QBL

• cooperation not competition

• climate change impacting agribiz

• rural Aus rapid demographic shifts

• young non negotiators

• relationships : consumers partners innovators

Two greatest challenges facing WFI

Changing nature of agribiz

• facilitating client change

• risk management during change

Changing nature of clients

• understanding immense differences

• responding to - not imposing upon

Thank youThank you www.annimac.com.au