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Future Trends Impacting Future Trends Impacting WFI : WFI : New Wisdoms New Wisdoms Annimac www.annimac.com.au Wesfarmers Federation Insurance National Conference Growth Through Wisdom Focus Innovation 27 April 2005 Perth W Australia Speaker Conference Keynote

Future Trends Impacting WFI : New Wisdoms

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Wesfarmers Federation Insurance National Conference Growth Through Wisdom Focus Innovation 27 April 2005 Perth W Australia. Future Trends Impacting WFI : New Wisdoms. Conference Keynote. Speaker. Annimac www.annimac.com.au. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Future Trends Impacting WFI : Future Trends Impacting WFI :

New WisdomsNew Wisdoms                          

                   

Annimacwww.annimac.com.au

Wesfarmers Federation Insurance National Conference

Growth Through Wisdom Focus Innovation 27 April 2005 Perth W Australia

Speaker

Conference Keynote Conference Keynote

Page 2: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

“ “ Everything that has beenEverything that has been

standard practice for 5 standard practice for 5

generations on my family generations on my family

farm is now wrong. farm is now wrong. ””

Great Southern WA crop & sheep farmer, age 38Great Southern WA crop & sheep farmer, age 38

Page 3: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Rate of Change

5 minutes - new technology 5 days - new product or service every day - 1 million new web

pages

Change we have in one day

Our grandparents had in one year

Younger means faster

Page 4: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms
Page 5: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Technology e.g. by 2020

70 % types of jobs then

do not exist now because

80% technology not yet imagined

Driving all Drivers of ChangeDriving all Drivers of Change

Page 6: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Likely jobs in next 10 years :

• Director of Emerging Thought

• Chief Zookeeper - of people

• Chief Farm Technologist

• Creative Undertaker

• Agricultural Biotech Adviser

• Pasture Programmer

• Valuer of Intangible Assets *

• Human Interface Manager *

* 2003

Page 7: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

now Technology not wealth

• Access

• Skilling

50 % world popn no phone

Gap : Haves - Have Nots Gap : Haves - Have Nots

Page 8: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms
Page 9: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Changing Nature of WorkChanging Nature of Work

Two major trends :Two major trends :

Co opitalismCo opitalism

Cooperative capitalismCooperative capitalism

SustainabilitySustainability

Development harmonyDevelopment harmony

Page 10: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

• Project based Team basedProject based Team based

• Relationships Relationships

• One off alliances - consortiaOne off alliances - consortia

• Globally networkedGlobally networked

• Fast flat skilled decision makingFast flat skilled decision making

• Values drivenValues driven Quad Bottom LineQuad Bottom Line • Asia marketsAsia markets

Changing Nature of Work :Changing Nature of Work :

Page 11: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Emerging values for BusinessEmerging values for Business

intergenerational equity

leaving our planet to future generations in as good as or better state than it is today

sustainable development human development ( financial economic and social ) in harmony with the natural environment

eco-footprinting

the assessment of our current usage and 'fair share' of global resources

Page 12: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Farmer’s paddock Williams Albany Hwy WA March 03

Page 13: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Changing Nature of Employment :Changing Nature of Employment :

Two major trends :Two major trends :

• CasualisationCasualisation

• Values drivenValues driven

Page 14: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

• Contract based : ProjectsContract based : Projects

• Part timePart time

• Skill based Multi skillingSkill based Multi skilling

• Employee benefits negotiatedEmployee benefits negotiated

• Values driven not moneyValues driven not money• personal people planet personal people planet

• Global sourcingGlobal sourcing

Changing Nature of Employment :

Page 15: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms
Page 16: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Aus Small Business Trends ABS

1996 - 2001

Number of small biz in Aus 1,505,924

Income increase over 5 yrs 18.6 %

including wages 29.9 %

profit up by 13.4 %

Number in capital cities 945, 320 only Hobart decreasing

Number outside capital cities 611,476

decreasing by 1 %

Page 17: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Small biz

Highest 5 yr growth outside capital cities :

SW Queensland 42.4 % Kimberley WA 41.7 % Outer Adelaide 37.4 % Central W Queensland 31.2 %

Decline in total income in 4 Regions :

Midlands WA - 1.1 % South Eastern WA - 3.9 % Upper Great Southern WA - 8.8% Northern Sth Australia - 4.8 %

Average income grew in all regions

Page 18: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

ABS Estimates: Ave Annual Growth in Total Income of Small Businesses 1996 to 2001

Page 19: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Trends in farm income :

Page 20: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms
Page 21: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms
Page 22: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms
Page 23: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Future growth trends - small biz startup :

Domestic services - “ Do it for me ”

• home cleaning, maintenance and gardening

• healthy prepared meals and home catering

• shopping and delivery services

• home security systems and patrol services

• household waste disposal and recycling

• car care

• pool cleaning

• pet care

Page 24: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms
Page 25: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Start-ups

Community services

• travel & tourism • special interest education – leisure & learning • investment  & retirement planning • sports  & recreation • tailored accommodation facilities • home & health care • preventative health & alternative therapies • mobility & companionship services

Page 26: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms
Page 27: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Start-ups

Health & lifestyle

• alternative therapies • stress management, relaxation & meditation • personal counselling & self awareness • parenting skills & techniques • public speaking  & social etiquette • career & skills development • image consulting • personal security, self-defence & devices

Page 28: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms
Page 29: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Start-ups

Business services

• computer consultancy services • employment placement & staff contracting • accounting & business advisory services• serviced offices  & secretarial support • business planning  & information services • marketing & public relations

Page 30: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms
Page 31: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Start-ups

Tourism & Recreation

• ecotourism  & nature based tours • heritage  & nostalgia tours • backpacker tourism • farm-stays • special events e.g. country show days • concert  & sporting events

Major growth : On line e-business

Page 32: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms
Page 33: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Trends in Rural AustraliaTrends in Rural Australia

• Farming communities downsizingFarming communities downsizing

• Family farms corporatisingFamily farms corporatising

• Urban encroachmentUrban encroachment

• Ageing farm populationAgeing farm population

• Succession issues : youth issuesSuccession issues : youth issues

• Women as farm biz managersWomen as farm biz managers

• Slow uptake of technologySlow uptake of technology

• Slow uptake new knowledgeSlow uptake new knowledge

Page 34: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms
Page 35: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Trends of Climate Change

• Forecasters disagree long term

• Global warming impacting

• Some changes inevitable

• Aus second most arid continent

• Aus climate highly vulnerable

Page 36: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms
Page 37: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Trends of Climate Change : AusTrends of Climate Change : Aus

Aus climate cyclical - shorterAus climate cyclical - shorter

Aus ecosystems vulnerable to change :Aus ecosystems vulnerable to change :

• hi risk : coral reefs alpine mangrove wetlands savannahshi risk : coral reefs alpine mangrove wetlands savannahs

tropical forests deserts natural grasslandstropical forests deserts natural grasslands

Global warming impacting Aus :Global warming impacting Aus :

• increasing carbon dioxideincreasing carbon dioxide

• changing temperatures : hi certaintychanging temperatures : hi certainty

• changing rainfall : mod certainty changing rainfall : mod certainty

Page 38: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Likely impact of climate changeLikely impact of climate change 2030 2030

• COCO22 to 455 ppm : mostly good mostly good

• plant growth & water efficiencyplant growth & water efficiency

• Temperature warming : Temperature warming : 22°° to 4 to 4° C° C

• Rainfall change : mostly not good

• southwest : southwest : -20% to +5%-20% to +5%

• southeast, Qld : southeast, Qld : -10% to +5%-10% to +5%

• inland : inland : summer or autumnsummer or autumn

Page 39: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Some Specific ImpactsSome Specific Impacts

Wheat :Wheat :

• faster growth less grain fillingfaster growth less grain filling• high yield lower grain proteinhigh yield lower grain protein• not bread making or pasta grainnot bread making or pasta grain

Fruit :Fruit : esp apples stone fruits southern Ausesp apples stone fruits southern Aus

• less frost damage less chillingless frost damage less chilling• less bud burst lower fruit setless bud burst lower fruit set• lower yield reduced qualitylower yield reduced quality

Page 40: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Changing rainfall & temperature impact onChanging rainfall & temperature impact on

wheat production in Australia wheat production in Australia CSIRO 2001CSIRO 2001

Temperature increaseTemperature increase °°CC

Rainfall change %Rainfall change %Y

ield

r

esp

on

se

%Y

ield

r

esp

on

se

%20%20% 0%0% - 20%- 20%

Page 41: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms
Page 42: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

High rainfall Pastures :High rainfall Pastures : • NSW Vic : CONSW Vic : CO22 & warming cancel out & warming cancel out• sthn Aus less winter spring rain sthn Aus less winter spring rain

• less plant production less plant production • less animal productionless animal production• higher temp : dairy cows less milkhigher temp : dairy cows less milk

Rangelands : Rangelands : delicate diversity threateneddelicate diversity threatened

• sthn Aus 10% less winter spring rain sthn Aus 10% less winter spring rain • less forage less animal productionless forage less animal production

• nthn Aus more summer rain COnthn Aus more summer rain CO22 • more forage poorer quality

• nthn sub / tropics move southnthn sub / tropics move south• natural vegetation unable to adapt natural vegetation unable to adapt

Page 43: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Growth in forests :Growth in forests :

if COif CO2 2 doubles with 3doubles with 3°°C temp increaseC temp increase

> 50%> 50%

25 25 toto 50% 50%

0 0 toto 25% 25%

-25 -25 toto -50% -50%

-50 -50 to to -25%-25%

< -50%< -50% No growthNo growth

Page 44: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Gap widening : Knowledge

• Haves / have nots

• Age generations

• Globally networked

Shifting Global ValuesShifting Global Values

Page 45: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

now Technology not wealth

• Access

• Skilling

50 % world popn no phone

Gap : Haves - Have Nots Gap : Haves - Have Nots

Page 46: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Australian Population Pyramid

Aus Govt 2001

Page 47: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Gap : Age GenerationsGap : Age Generations

Four generations : Three worlds

• Baby Boomers 45 – 60 yrs Materialism• economic rationalists : profit• material values : tangibles• science as religion : rational

• Generation X 30 – 45 yrs• clones of Boomers : materialists or• copy younger : sustainability

Page 48: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Four generations : Three worlds

• DotComs 15 - 30 yrs Sustainability

• global identity• co opitalism• relationships• holistic win - win – win

• Cluetrain Manifesto “ The marketplace is a conversation ” www.cluetrainmanifesto.com

Gap : Age GenerationsGap : Age Generations

Page 49: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Chinese Technology CentreChinese Technology Centre

Page 50: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Gap : Age GenerationsGap : Age Generations

Four generations : Three worlds

• Ferals 0 – 15 yrs Virtual

. no limits

. no boundaries

. parallel universes . quantum everything

. invent their world

. beyond our imagining

. Indigo children

Page 51: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms
Page 52: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Gap : Globally NetworkedGap : Globally Networked

Those globally networked :

• access all knowledge

• empowered

• confident

• passionately committed

• global view future

• one planet : one future

Page 53: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Summary Impact for WFISummary Impact for WFI • transiting two worlds - accelerating

• values shift to sustainability QBL

• cooperation not competition

• climate change impacting agribiz

• rural Aus rapid demographic shifts

• young non negotiators

• relationships : consumers partners innovators

Page 54: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Two greatest challenges facing WFI

Changing nature of agribiz

• facilitating client change

• risk management during change

Changing nature of clients

• understanding immense differences

• responding to - not imposing upon

Page 55: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms
Page 56: Future   Trends   Impacting   WFI   :  New    Wisdoms

Thank youThank you www.annimac.com.au