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Parma Summer School 201815-17 May 18, Parma
Emerging Risks
Ana AfonsoScientific Committee and Emerging Risks Unit
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Expectations
Communication
Effectiveness
EFSA, mission and tasks
Objectives
Emerging risks definition
Drivers
Examples
ERI procedure
What works
What is important
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Experience has shownthat it is necessary toadopt measures aimed atguaranteeing that unsafefood is not placed on themarket
FOOD LAW
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EFSA 2020 STRATEGY
Prioritise public engagement in the process ofscientific assessment
Widen EFSA’s evidence base and maximise accessto its data
Build the EU’s scientific assessment capacity andknowledge community
Prepare for future risk assessment challenges
Create an environment and culture that reflectsEFSA’s values
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Anticipation of future risk assessment needs
Data / Knowledge
Risk assessment methods
Help risk manager anticipate and even preventfuture safety challenges
EMERGING RISKS – WHY ARE WE INTERESTED?
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A function of theprobability of an adversehealth effect and theseverity of that effect,consequential to a hazard;
RISK
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an emerging risk to human, animaland/or plant health is understood as arisk resulting from a newly identifiedhazard to which significant exposuremay occur or from an unexpectednew or increased significantexposure and/or susceptibility to aknown hazard” (EFSA 2007).
EMERGING RISK
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NEW CHALLENGES AND THREATS
Environmental risks e.gmultiple stressors and bees
Evaluation of the safety ofnew products
•e.g. novel foods
Development of newassessment methods:
•nanotechnology, active andintelligent packaging
•‘-omics’, less animal testing
Chemical mixtures/ combinedtoxicity of substances in food
Antimicrobial resistance
Hazards linked toglobalisation: plant pests,animal diseases, vector-borne diseases
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Drivers
Pathways
Sources
Outcome
WHY DO THINGS CHANGE?
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DRIVERS OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE THREAT EVENTS
Foodborne and waterborne IDTEs (Semenza et al 2016)
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EMERGING RISK DRIVERS
How do we recognise changes?
How can we anticipate changes? Is predictionpossible?
What are the implications of changes formanaging risk?
Can we learn from the past?
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Micro-organisms, pests, parasitesand prions having a direct or indirectimpact on the safety of the food and feedsupply chains, animal health and welfare,and plant health
EMERGING BIOLOGICAL RISKS
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Q FEVER
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CULTURAL AND METHODOLOGICAL CHALLENGES
Emerging disease risk is a local issue with aglobal dimension.
The emergence of a pathogen involves acombination of changes in key drivers.
Most drivers for emerging issues are common tohuman, veterinary, plant and ecosystem health
Pathogen discovery - Pathway discovery
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ERI PROCEDURE
Identificationof priorityemerging
issues
Informationsources and
data collection
Evaluation toidentify
emerging risks
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ACCESSIBLE DATA
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TEXT MINING: “EMERGING RISK FOOD”
false negatives
noise avoided noise
Flagged Overlooked
spot on
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PRIORITIZATION
Novelty
Soundness
Severity
Imminence
Scale
UNCERTAINTY
AMBIGUITY
RISKPERCEPTION
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Where is the life we have lost in living?
Where is the wisdom we have lost inknowledge?
Where is the knowledge we have lostin information?
T. S. Eliot
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EFSA SCIENTIFIC PANELS
Plant protection
GMO
Plant health
Animal health & welfare
Nutrition
Food Packaging
Animal feed
Biological hazards
Chemical contaminants
Food additives
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WITHIN EUROPE...
National food safety agencies
from 28 EU Member States
400 research institutes
EU Agencies
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OUTSIDE EUROPE...
Partners
Establishedcooperation
IPA/ENP countries
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NETWORKS OF KNOWLEDGE
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Identification of relevant issues
Expertise and networking are a vital part ofthe process, particularly for filtering signals
Sharing information without creatingunnecessary scares
Focused monitoring and follow-up activities
WHAT HAS WORKED
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IDENTIFICATION OF EMERGING ISSUES
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Evaluation of the collected information andidentification of emerging risks
Avoided risks are often “invisible”
EVALUATION
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Aim (and defining success)
How to handle uncertainty
It is not only risk assessment
IMPORTANT
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SCER- ER Team
Caroline Merten, RaquelGarcia Mata, AngeloMaggiore, Agnes Rortais,Tilemachos Goumperi,Tobin Robinson
EFSA Staff
EFSA experts
Emerging Risks Exchange Network
Stakeholders discussion group
JRC
DG SANTE
ECDC
FAO……..
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
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THANK YOU
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