Parma Summer School 201815-17 May 18, Parma

Emerging Risks

Ana AfonsoScientific Committee and Emerging Risks Unit

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Expectations

Communication

Effectiveness

EFSA, mission and tasks

Objectives

Emerging risks definition

Drivers

Examples

ERI procedure

What works

What is important

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Experience has shownthat it is necessary toadopt measures aimed atguaranteeing that unsafefood is not placed on themarket

FOOD LAW

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EFSA 2020 STRATEGY

Prioritise public engagement in the process ofscientific assessment

Widen EFSA’s evidence base and maximise accessto its data

Build the EU’s scientific assessment capacity andknowledge community

Prepare for future risk assessment challenges

Create an environment and culture that reflectsEFSA’s values

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Anticipation of future risk assessment needs

Data / Knowledge

Risk assessment methods

Help risk manager anticipate and even preventfuture safety challenges

EMERGING RISKS – WHY ARE WE INTERESTED?

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A function of theprobability of an adversehealth effect and theseverity of that effect,consequential to a hazard;

RISK

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an emerging risk to human, animaland/or plant health is understood as arisk resulting from a newly identifiedhazard to which significant exposuremay occur or from an unexpectednew or increased significantexposure and/or susceptibility to aknown hazard” (EFSA 2007).

EMERGING RISK

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NEW CHALLENGES AND THREATS

Environmental risks e.gmultiple stressors and bees

Evaluation of the safety ofnew products

•e.g. novel foods

Development of newassessment methods:

•nanotechnology, active andintelligent packaging

•‘-omics’, less animal testing

Chemical mixtures/ combinedtoxicity of substances in food

Antimicrobial resistance

Hazards linked toglobalisation: plant pests,animal diseases, vector-borne diseases

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Drivers

Pathways

Sources

Outcome

WHY DO THINGS CHANGE?

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DRIVERS OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE THREAT EVENTS

Foodborne and waterborne IDTEs (Semenza et al 2016)

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EMERGING RISK DRIVERS

How do we recognise changes?

How can we anticipate changes? Is predictionpossible?

What are the implications of changes formanaging risk?

Can we learn from the past?

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Micro-organisms, pests, parasitesand prions having a direct or indirectimpact on the safety of the food and feedsupply chains, animal health and welfare,and plant health

EMERGING BIOLOGICAL RISKS

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Q FEVER

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CULTURAL AND METHODOLOGICAL CHALLENGES

Emerging disease risk is a local issue with aglobal dimension.

The emergence of a pathogen involves acombination of changes in key drivers.

Most drivers for emerging issues are common tohuman, veterinary, plant and ecosystem health

Pathogen discovery - Pathway discovery

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ERI PROCEDURE

Identificationof priorityemerging

issues

Informationsources and

data collection

Evaluation toidentify

emerging risks

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ACCESSIBLE DATA

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TEXT MINING: “EMERGING RISK FOOD”

false negatives

noise avoided noise

Flagged Overlooked

spot on

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PRIORITIZATION

Novelty

Soundness

Severity

Imminence

Scale

UNCERTAINTY

AMBIGUITY

RISKPERCEPTION

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Where is the life we have lost in living?

Where is the wisdom we have lost inknowledge?

Where is the knowledge we have lostin information?

T. S. Eliot

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EFSA SCIENTIFIC PANELS

Plant protection

GMO

Plant health

Animal health & welfare

Nutrition

Food Packaging

Animal feed

Biological hazards

Chemical contaminants

Food additives

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WITHIN EUROPE...

National food safety agencies

from 28 EU Member States

400 research institutes

EU Agencies

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OUTSIDE EUROPE...

Partners

Establishedcooperation

IPA/ENP countries

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NETWORKS OF KNOWLEDGE

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Identification of relevant issues

Expertise and networking are a vital part ofthe process, particularly for filtering signals

Sharing information without creatingunnecessary scares

Focused monitoring and follow-up activities

WHAT HAS WORKED

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IDENTIFICATION OF EMERGING ISSUES

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Evaluation of the collected information andidentification of emerging risks

Avoided risks are often “invisible”

EVALUATION

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Aim (and defining success)

How to handle uncertainty

It is not only risk assessment

IMPORTANT

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SCER- ER Team

Caroline Merten, RaquelGarcia Mata, AngeloMaggiore, Agnes Rortais,Tilemachos Goumperi,Tobin Robinson

EFSA Staff

EFSA experts

Emerging Risks Exchange Network

Stakeholders discussion group

JRC

DG SANTE

ECDC

FAO……..

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

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THANK YOU