David T. Shaw ( 蕭台戈 ) State University of New York at Buffalo Amherst, NY

November 11-14, 2012 近代工程研討會 Taipei, Taiwan

ISSUES AT NEXUS OF ENERGY/WATER/CLIMATE/AIR POLLUTION (NEWCAP)

ON

SUSTAINABLE ENVIRONMENTAL DEVELOPMENT

David T. Shaw (蕭台戈 )State University of New York at Buffalo

Amherst, NY

Review of issues at the nexus of energy/water/climate/air pollution (NEWCAP)

Perspective of energy sustainability Perspective of water sustainability Issues at the energy/water nexus Sustainability science: How we should transform to

a sustainable society. Summary

Outline

Energy

Taiwan’s Transition to Sustainability

Water

November 11-14, 2012 近代工程研討會 Taipei, Taiwan

To be competitive in the global markets, Taiwan needs plans for sustainable development of energy and water resources.

The country’s political system is perpetually planning for the next election cycle and is incapable of laying out roadmaps for transitions to energy and water sustainability.

German’s green revolution

Water- resour

ce stress

Change in groundwate

r

Change in Precipitation extremes

Water efficiency

and productivity

6

Agriculture demand for

water

Severe floods and droughts

Substitution, reduction

And regeneration

Drivers of water-resource stress

Effects of combustion emissions on precipitation extremes

Cloud formation from emissions from ocean liners

Cloud formation processes

How can humans affect clouds?By changing CCN; cloud properties are a strong function of their concentration.This phenomenon is known as aerosol indirect effect.

The aerosol indirect effect can lead to climatic cooling by:• Increasing cloud reflectivity (albedo)• Increasing cloud lifetime & coverage.

Clean Environment

CCN

Lower Albedo

Polluted Environment (few CCN)

(more CCN)

CCN

Higher Albedo

Asian pollution plumes.Is the indirect effect globally important?Biomass burning in the Amazon.

Pollution is a global problem. CCN are emitted together with greenhouse gases.

Is the indirect effect important?

AerosolSize Distribution and Chemical Composition

Cloud Radiative Properties

Cloud Droplet Number and Size? Well

Defined

This problem has historically been reduced to finding the relationship between aerosol number concentration and cloud droplet number concentration. Empirical relationships are often used.

Indirect effect s are very complex

Conceptual model:

Graphics by Robert Simmon, NASAHAIL

Conceptual model of aerosol effects…

Water efficiency and productivity

Domestic vs. industrial water usasage

Jianyao Chen, et al (2006)

Water scarcity affects economic development in the underdeveloped countries

Water scarcity

It’s also important for biodiversity in the developed country

Substitution: Rainwater (from roof) and graywater (laundry, dishwasher, and bathing) can be used in place of drinking water for a variety of activities.

Water efficiency and productivity

Regeneration: Domestic waste water can be treated to replenish groundwater

Reduction: water productivity can be increased by reducing the volume of water used for a fixed value of goods and services.

In addition to resource augmentation, water efficiency and productivity are important

Resource augmentation

Folsom dam, California

Many world’s major rivers never reach their deltas

Water resources under stress

ColoradoYellowNile

Desalination

Reclamation

Groundwater depletion and replenishment

The imbalance is made up by groundwater

All of these environmental issues are linked to each other, and eventually are tied to water resources which are the

focus of our discussion.

Hydrology cycle and water resources

Taikan Oki et al, Science (2006)

November 11-14, 2012 近代工程研討會 Taipei, Taiwan

Two GRACE satellites The positions of which change in response to variations in Earth’s gravity field

Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE)

When the two spacecraft pass over the ocean, the distance between them is unchanged

How GRACE works

when the lead spacecraft encounters a change in gravity over a denser land mass, it pulls away from the trailing spacecraft, which is still over water.

The lead spacecraft moves back over water, but now the trailing spacecraft changes position in response to the greater pull of gravity over the land mass.

Water and energy security in Asia-Pacific region in the face of climate change and rising populations is an issue of global importance.

Sustainability science has emerged over the past two decades as a response to critical issues of the 21st century.

As the 2008 global financial crisis showed us, too many policy failures of technological/economic/environmental/social (TEEC) problems are fundamentally failures of knowledge.o Germany’s carbon-neutral energy revolution is facing many uncertainties.o We propose to pursue a multidisciplinary approach and establish new sustainability science

institutions for efficient knowledge creation through TEEC model simulation and integrative systems design.

Summary