Colorado's Energy Portfolio: Past, Present, Potential

Colorado ElectricityPast, Present, and Future

Paul KomorUniversity of Colorado, Boulder

komor@colorado.edu Nov. 2015

Electricity for Colorado-Fuels and Trends: 1900 to 2015-Virtual Field Trip-Closer look: Wind and Solar Photovoltaic (PV)-Colorado Electricity 2015-2030

Georgetown: Hydro/coal-steam plant

Source: Georgetown Energy Museum

Colorado Electricity - Past

• 1876: Gas lights in Georgetown• 1886: DC hydro plant in Georgetown - 100

electric street lights Christmas eve!• 1891: AC hydro in Georgetown• 1901: Electricity lines run to Idaho Springs,

surrounding mines• 1924: various small electricity companies

combined into “Public Service Company of Colorado” (now Xcel Energy)

Source: Georgetown Energy Museum

Colorado Electricity - Past

• 1930s and 1940s: much of rural Colorado electrified, using loans from the Rural Electrification Admin (REA)

• Valmont coal plant (Boulder): 1924-2017• Cherokee coal plant (Denver):1957-2013• Craig Station coal plant: 1979-• Fort St. Vrain nuclear: 1979-1989

Colorado Electricity Trends: Growth in Natural Gas, Wind

Coal

Nat. Gas

WindSolar

Source: DOE/EIA

Coal still dominates!

This one powerplant outside Craig CO produces more electricity than all 1400+ Colorado wind turbines.

Trapper mine

Photo credit: Paul Komor

Photo credit: Paul Komor

Photo credit: Paul Komor

Trapper mine

Photo credit: Paul Komor

Photo credit: Paul Komor

Craig Station

Photo credit: Paul Komor

Photo credit: Paul Komor

Coal Mine in Colorado

Just outside Steamboat…

Natural Gas for Electricity

Photo credit: Paul Komor

Photo credit: Paul Komor

Photo credit: Paul Komor

Wind: 0 to 14% in 13 years

Coal

Nat. Gas

WindSolar

Source: DOE/EIA

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Source: R. Wiser et al. 2015

Colorado ranked 8th in wind (2014)

Cedar Creek Wind Project

Source: Wiser et al, Aug. 2015

Advantages of Wind- Large resource potential• 0 emissions, 0 fuel costs• Low cost, competitive with fossil fuels• Mature, reliable technology• Strong supply chain, competitive turbine market

Challenges for Wind-Geographically limited,

requires ~6+ m/s steady wind-Variable output, no storage-Land and visual impacts-Transmission requirements-Competition from solar (!)

Solar PV: Still less than 1%, but growing rapidly

Coal

Nat. Gas

WindSolar

Source: DOE/EIA

60

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV)

International Space Station

Hubble Telescope

Mars Rover

Solar PV at Denver Airport

2.3 MW PV system in Rifle CO

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Solar PV - examplesA large (3.2 MW) PV system, next to a 900 MW nuclear power plant:

2.8 kW rooftop PV systemBoulder, COInstalled July 2014

Source: Wiser et al, 2015

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Solar PV - advantages-Will work anywhere the sun shines-No emissions, no moving parts-Can be sited on rooftops-0 fuel costs, very low operating costs-Long lifetimes - ~20 years-Can be sized from mW to MW-Can work on or off the electricity grid

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Solar PV - challenges

- ~$3/watt, 19¢/kWh (lower with tax credits and rebates)- Output varies with the sun, not dispatchable- PV at or below ‘grid parity’ with diesel.- PV at or (in rare cases) below ‘grid parity’ for some distributed and even utility-scale applications.

Energy Disruptions

Energy Disruptions ~2010-2015

-Fracking technology (U.S., then global)-Nuclear power accident (Japan)-Natural gas price drops (U.S.)-Solar photovoltaic price drops (global)-LED lighting price drops (global)-Oil price drops (global)

Energy Disruptions 2015-2020

1) ???2) ???3) ???4) ???

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What’s next for colorado electricity?

Coal

Nat. Gas

WindSolar

2020

???

Source: DOE/EIA

Colorado’s Electricity Future…key questions

-What happens if (when?) it’s less expensive to make your own electricity than to buy it from Xcel (YVEA, IREA, etc.)?-What happens if (when?) CO2 is priced or regulated?• -What if electric cars become popular?• -What happens when (if?) buildings are ‘zero energy’?

THE LONG VIEW

Source: www.eia.doe.gov

1800-1900: Mostly Renewables (wood)1900-2000: Mostly Fossil2000-2100: ?

ReferencesColorado Energy Data: DOE/EIA. www.eia.gov/state/?sid=CO

Renewable technology costs and trends, policy analysis, markets (US): LBNL. https://emp.lbl.gov/research-areas/renewable-energy

Global summary of renewables: REN 21. www.ren21.net

Back-up slides

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What’s next for colorado electricity?

2020

???

Source: DOE/EIA