Climate change and desertifi cation: Anticipating, … change and...and Lindsay C. Stringer,...

The Scientifi c and Traditional Knowledge for Sustainable Development (STK4SD) Consortium

United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification

9-12 March 2015, Cancún, Mexico

Impulse Report

Climate change and desertifi cation:Anticipating, assessing & adapting

to future change in drylands

Written by Mark S. Reed, Birmingham City University and Lindsay C. Stringer, University of Leeds,

with the contribution of an international panel of experts (see the complete list of authors on page 2)

March 2015

Climate change and desertification:Anticipating, assessing & adapting

to future change in drylands

3rd UNCCD Scientific Conference

Mark S. ReedLindsay C. Stringer

international panel of experts

March 2015

Main authors:Reed

Stringer

Contributors:AmiraslaniBernouxBraganteCentrittoDe VenteKustLapeyre

MahamaneMarengoMetternichtMurgidaNowakOljacaPascualAguilarSeely

Reviewers (members of the conference Scientific Advisory Committee):Akhtar SchusterDiazDiaz MorejonDjamen NanaGrujicKhanKhoetsyanLaureanoPayneRéquier Desjardins

VonMaltitzWang

The contents of this document do not represent the views of the UNCCD or of itsmember Parties

A co-edition of Agropolis International - 1000, Avenue Agropolis - 34394 Montpellier – France

and Groupe CCEE (http://autres-talents.fr)

Achevé d’imprimer en février 2015 par Seven

Isbn : 978-2-35682-379-3 - Dépôt légal février 2015

Exemplaire hors commerce

Imprimé en France

Foreword

although much is known about the processesand effects of land degradation and climate change, less is understood about thelinks between these two processes. Less still is known about how climate changeand land degradation processes are currently interacting in different socialecological systems around the world, or how they might interact under differentscenarios in the future (…). may give rise to anumber of potentially important but possibly unforeseen impacts on ecosystemsand populations in regions affected by desertification, land degradation anddrought (DLDD). Moreover, our poor understanding of feedbacks among theseprocesses limits our capacity for anticipatory adaptation. There is an increasinglyurgent need for research to elucidate these links, so that land users and policymakers can respond in timely and effective ways

The 3rd UNCCD Scientific Conference Scientific Advisory Committee

Content

Acronyms....................................................................................................................................... 9

Executive Summary..................................................................................................................11

1. Introduction.........................................................................................................................24

2. Conceptual and methodological frameworks ...........................................................39

3. Diagnosis of constraints...................................................................................................49

4. Responses .............................................................................................................................67

5. Monitoring and evaluation..............................................................................................82

6. Conclusion .........................................................................................................................110

Acknowledgements ...............................................................................................................115

References................................................................................................................................ 116

Acronyms

Executive Summary

Conceptual and methodological frameworks

Exposure

Sensitivity

Adaptability

vulnerable

resilient

Initial assessmentexposed

Impact assessment sensitivity

Adaptation assessment adaptivecapacity

Diagnosis of constraints

Responses

Monitoring and evaluation

Knowledge gaps

Diagnosis of constraints

Responses

Monitoring and assessment

Conclusions

1. Introduction

a dynamic complex of plant, animal and micro organism communities,and the non living environment, interacting as a functional unit

the benefits provided by ecosystems that contribute to making human life both possibleand worth living. The term ‘services’ is usually used to encompass the tangible and intangible benefitsthat humans obtain from ecosystems, which are sometimes separated into ‘goods’ and ‘services’

1.1 Climate change and land degradation in regionsaffected by DLDD: key definitions

1.1.1 Climate change

statistically significant in terms of itsmean state or its variability

1.1.2 Land degradation and desertification

land degradation inarid, semi arid, and dry subhumid areas resulting from various factors, includingclimatic variations and human activities

reduction or loss, in arid, semi arid, and dry subhumid areas, ofthe biological or economic productivity and complexity of rain fed cropland,irrigated cropland, or range, pasture, forest, and woodlands resulting from landuses or from a process or combination of processes, including processes arisingfrom human activities and habitation patterns, such as: (i) soil erosion caused bywind and/or water; (ii) deterioration of the physical, chemical, and biological oreconomic properties of soil; and (iii) long term loss of natural vegetation

of noconsequence to production at a larger spatial scale, it does not contribute todegradation in the wider context. If it has no impact on future production, it is notdegradation in the longer term. A change in a component of the environment that

A declinable area of the earth's terrestrial surface, encompassingall attributes of the biosphere immediately or below this surface; including those of the near surfaceclimate, the soil and terrain forms, the surface hydrology (including shallow lakes, rivers, marshes andswamps), near surface sedimentary layers and associated groundwater reserve, the plant and animalpopulations, the human settlement pattern and physical results of past and present human activity(terracing, water storage or drainage structures, roads, buildings. etc.)

cannot be accessed with present technology or finance, or is inconsequential to apresent way of life, does not, per se, amount to degradation

1.1.3 Regions affected by DLDD

desertification

1.2 Policy context

“To provide a global framework tosupport the development and implementation of national and regional policies,programmes and measures to prevent, control and reverse desertification/landdegradation and mitigate the effects of drought through scientific andtechnological excellence, raising public awareness, standard setting, advocacyand resource mobilization, thereby contributing to poverty reduction”.

bio physicaland socio economic monitoring and assessment of desertification and landdegradation, to support decision making in land and water management

economic assessment of desertification, sustainable landmanagement and resilience of arid, semi arid and dry sub humid areas

combating desertification/land degradation and drought for poverty reductionand sustainable development: the contribution of science, technology, traditionalknowledge and practices

Figure 1:

1.3 Aims and objectives of this report

Diagnosis of constraints:

Responses:

Monitoring and assessment:

2. Conceptual andmethodological frameworks

2.1 Conceptual frameworks

Figure 2:

Understanding the vulnerability of ecosystems andpopulations in areas affected by DLDD

Exposure

Sensitivity

Adaptability

Figure 3:

vulnerable

resilient ability of a social ecologicalsystem to cope with shocks and stresses by responding or reorganising in waysthat maintain its essential functions, identities and structures, while alsomaintaining capacity for adaptation, learning and transformation

2.2 Methodological framework

Figure 4:

Initial assessment:

Impact assessment:

Adaptation assessment:

2.3 Synthesis

3. Diagnosis of constraints

3.1 Introduction

3.2 Effects of climate change on agriculturalproductivity, forests, fresh water provision andlivelihoods in regions affected by DLDD

reduction inthe resource potential of the land

polycultures, monocultures, and mixed systems,including crop–livestock systems, agroforestry, agro–silvo–pastoral systems, aquaculture, as well asrangelands, pastures and fallow lands

Cyperus rotundus

vice versa Striga

agroecosystem responses will be dominated by [impacts] caused directly orindirectly by shifts in climate, associated with altered weather patterns, and notby elevated CO2 per se

an accelerated decline in water availability andbiological production in drylands

the sum of the many ways in which individuals andinstitutions, public and private, manage issues

3.3 Effects of climate change on supporting,regulating and cultural ecosystem services inregions affected by DLDD

seem species specific and relatively minor

defacto

Boscia albitrunca

B. albitrunca

European identity and diversity, the landscape is our living natural and culturalheritage, be it ordinary or outstanding, urban or rural, on land or in water.

3.4 Feedbacks between climate change and landdegradation in regions affected by DLDD

Feedbacks with carbon in vegetation and soil

these estimates are admittedlycrude but highlight the magnitude of the potential benefits that can be achievedglobally through a focus on SLM

Feedbacks with vegetation cover

Feedbacks with biodiversity

3.5 Key vulnerabilities to the interactive effects ofland degradation and climate change in regionsaffected by DLDD

4. Responses

human actions,including policies, strategies, and interventions, designed to respond to specificissues, needs, opportunities, or problems

an anthropogenic intervention toreduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases

4.1 Approaches to adaptation

reductions in risk and vulnerability through the actions ofadjusting practices, processes and capital in response to the actuality or threat of climate change

4.2 Options for simultaneously adapting to climatechange and land degradation

Adaptation of cropping systems

Adaptation of livestock systems

Climate smart agriculture

Ecosystem based adaptations

Income diversification measures

Sustainable landmanagement

maintaining a cover over the ground and developing a better stewardship ofthe flora and fauna will help prevent and reverse land degradation, increase theresilience of ecosystems to climatic and human induced stresses and therebycontribute to the conservation of biodiversity and mitigation of climate change

4.3 Learning to adapt using locally held andscientific knowledge

4.4 Overcoming barriers to adaptation

4.5 Synthesis

5. Monitoring and evaluation

5.1 Monitoring and evaluating current effects ofland degradation and climate change

5.2 Assessing likely future effects of climate changeand land degradation

chance favours only the prepared minds

5.2.1 Predictive approaches

they are simplified, stylized representations of highlycomplex, real world processes, and the scenarios they produce (…) can differconsiderably from the reality that unfolds”

precise

5.2.2 Visioning approaches

5.2.3 Scenario based approaches

the best way to predict the future is to invent it

systematic method for thinkingcreatively about dynamic, complex and uncertain futures, and identifyingstrategies to prepare for a range of possible outcomes

5.3 Assessing response options

5.3.1 Political and institutional factors

a combination of actors and institutions, encompassingmanifold activities that include everything from political fundraisers, legislative committee hearings,and consultative meetings, to policy implementation on the ground

beingpushed by outside [international] interests

(1) perceived local benefits from cooperating; (2) clearly definedrights and boundaries for any natural resources implicated in the response; (3)knowledge about the state of those resources, including for example their extent,accessibility, and potential for regeneration; (4) small size of user groups; (5) lowdegree of heterogeneity of interests and values within user groups; (6) long term,

multilayered interaction across the communities and other governing institutionsinvolved; (7) simple, unambiguous rules and adaptable management regimes; (8)graduated sanctions as punishment; (9) ease of monitoring and accountability;(10) conflict resolution mechanisms; (11) strong, effective local leadership; and(12) congruence with the wider political economy within which thosecommunities function

5.3.2 Economic factors

5.3.3 Social technical factors

an idea, practice, or object that isperceived as new by an individual or other unit of adoption

et al

5.3.4 Monitoring adaptation

vis à vis

identify links between development andclimate change; focus the scope of adaptation on key sectors, themes or issues(without limiting integration among them); identify processes, institutions andcapacities to strengthen system wide adaptive capacity; identify adaptationpractices/behaviours related to development outcomes (including the actorsinvolved and the change sought); identify adaptation measures necessary toreduce climate related [and land degradation] risks; incorporate climate hazardand capacity/vulnerability factors; and balance quantitative, qualitative andnarrative monitoring and evaluation tools to enable triangulation.

5.4 Improving co operation and knowledgeexchange for monitoring and assessment ofadaptation options

5.4.1 How does knowledge exchange operate?

5.4.2 Key groups that need to exchange knowledgeabout climate change and land degradation

5.4.3 Best practice in stakeholder participation

The right people

The right atmosphere

Making it relevant

5.5 Synthesis

6. Conclusion

Diagnosis of constraints:

Responses:

Monitoring and assessment:

Diagnosis of constraints

Responses

Monitoring and assessment

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http://3sc.unccd.int

The 3rd UNCCD international scientifi c conference on “Combating desertifi cation/land degradation and drought for poverty reduction and sustainable development: the contribution of science, technology, traditional knowledge and practices” is held from 9 to 12 March 2015 in Cancún (Mexico), during the 4th special session of the Committee on Science and Technology (CST S-4) of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertifi cation (UNCCD).

The conference aims to attract the widest possible range of scientifi c, local and traditional knowledge that can be harnessed to achieve poverty reduction and sustainable development in areas susceptible to desertifi cation, land degradation and drought.

One of the major challenges facing delegates to the conference is the development of new scientifi c insights and recommendations to policy makers with regards to the assessment of vulnerability of socio-ecosystems to climate change and current and future capacities to adapt.

The conference addresses three major challenges: Diagnosis of constraints: How to best characterize and

understand the vulnerability and adaptive capacities of ecosystems (in particular agro-ecosystems) and populations in affected regions, including regions newly susceptible to the consequences of climate change?

Responses: How to build effi ciently on available knowledge, success stories and lessons learnt to promote implementation of better adapted, knowledge-based practices and technologies?

Monitoring and assessment: What are the new monitoring and assessment methods available to evaluate the effectiveness of these practices and technologies that provide improved insights on whether or how their implementation should be scaled up?

The conference is expected to contribute to the combat against desertifi cation and land degradation and to addressing the impact of drought, through delivering the following outcomes: Better anticipation and prevention of the impact of

climate change on land degradation and desertifi cation through capacity building;

Identifi cation and promotion of sustainable and adaptive methods of using ecosystems to reduce poverty and environmental degradation while achieving sustainable development;

Identifi cation of pathways towards land-degradation neutrality: by way of reducing degradation processes and scaling up restoration activities, the objective is to maintain and improve the quantity and quality of productive land.

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE