Biodiversity Informatics and Prediction of Disease Dynamics A. Townsend Peterson Natural History...

Biodiversity Biodiversity Informatics Informatics

and Prediction and Prediction of Disease of Disease DynamicsDynamics A. Townsend PetersonA. Townsend Peterson

Natural History MuseumNatural History Museum

The University of KansasThe University of Kansas

Colleagues and CollaboratorsColleagues and Collaborators UNAMUNAM: Adolfo Navarro, Victor Sanchez-: Adolfo Navarro, Victor Sanchez-

Cordero, Enrique Martinez-Meyer (all UNAM), Cordero, Enrique Martinez-Meyer (all UNAM), Jorge Soberon (UNAM-CONABIO), Janine Jorge Soberon (UNAM-CONABIO), Janine RamseyRamsey

BRAZILBRAZIL: Ricardo Scachetti (CRIA), Jane Costa : Ricardo Scachetti (CRIA), Jane Costa (FIOCRUZ), Jeffrey Shaw (USP)(FIOCRUZ), Jeffrey Shaw (USP)

USAUSA: David Stockwell (SDSC), David Vieglais, : David Stockwell (SDSC), David Vieglais, Ed Wiley, Robert Anderson, Steve Egbert, Ed Wiley, Robert Anderson, Steve Egbert, Miguel Ortega-Huerta, Kris McNyset (all KU), Miguel Ortega-Huerta, Kris McNyset (all KU), Mark Benedict, Ben Beard, Jim Mills, Darin Mark Benedict, Ben Beard, Jim Mills, Darin Carroll (CDC)Carroll (CDC)

Ecological Niche Concept Ecological Niche Concept

The set of environmental conditions, resources, The set of environmental conditions, resources, interactions, etc., in which a species is able to interactions, etc., in which a species is able to maintain populations without immigrationmaintain populations without immigration

Geographical DomainEcological Domain

project

Geographic Space Ecological Space

occurrence points on native distribution

ecological niche modeling

Projection back onto geography

Native range prediction

Invaded range prediction

Essence of Ecological Niche ModelingEssence of Ecological Niche Modeling

temperature

Model of niche in ecological dimensions

pre

cip

itatio

nNote that there are fewer than 500 points … indeed, GARP

works with excellent predictive ability for quite small samples

Factors that Limit Species’ Factors that Limit Species’ DistributionsDistributions

HistoryHistory– Limited dispersalLimited dispersal– SpeciationSpeciation– ExtinctionExtinction

EcologyEcology– Abiotic environmentAbiotic environment– Biotic environmentBiotic environment

InteractionsInteractions– CompetitionCompetition– PredationPredation– ParasitismParasitism– MutualismsMutualisms

Predicting disease Predicting disease dynamicsdynamics

depends critically depends critically on ecological on ecological

niches as long-niches as long-term stable term stable

distributional distributional constraints on constraints on

species’ species’ geographic geographic

potentialpotential

West Nile Virus in West Nile Virus in the New Worldthe New World: :

Analysis of Analysis of Transport Transport

MechanismsMechanisms

West Nile Virus 1999West Nile Virus 1999

West Nile Virus 2000West Nile Virus 2000

West Nile Virus 2001West Nile Virus 2001

West Nile Virus TransportWest Nile Virus Transport

Mosquito-Mosquito-mediated mediated onlyonly

Mosquito- Mosquito- and bird-and bird-mediatedmediated

Mosquito DistributionsMosquito Distributions

Culex pipiens

C. restuans

C. salinarius

Culex Culex Suitability SurfaceSuitability Surface

West Nile Virus 2000West Nile Virus 2000

West Nile Virus 2001West Nile Virus 2001

West Nile Virus Arrival Until 2000West Nile Virus Arrival Until 2000

Spread Without BirdsSpread Without Birds

Winter Destinations of NY Winter Destinations of NY BirdsBirds

Spread With BirdsSpread With Birds

Spread With BirdsSpread With Birds

First Test ResultsFirst Test Results

Mosquito mediation

Mosquitos and Birds

Spring 2002Spring 2002

Successfully reconstructs mid-Atlantic disjunction, SE concentration, spread W to Rockies

Filoviruses …Filoviruses …

Distribution of Filovirus OutbreaksDistribution of Filovirus Outbreaks

Filovirus OutbreaksFilovirus Outbreaks

Filovirus Strain DistributionFilovirus Strain Distribution

Omitting Most Divergent Filovirus (Marburg)Omitting Most Divergent Filovirus (Marburg)

Ecological Distribution of Ebola IEcological Distribution of Ebola I

All of Africa

0

20

40

60

80

8 12 16 20 24 28 32

Annual mean temperature

Ann

ual m

ean

prec

ipita

tion Availability

Ebola

Land Use / Land Cover Types: Land Use / Land Cover Types: Proportion Predicted Appropriate for Proportion Predicted Appropriate for

EbolaEbola

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

Evergreenbroadleaf

forest

Woodland Woodedgrassland

Closedshrubland

Openshrubland

Grassland Cropland Bare ground

Pro

po

rtio

n

Ebola RestonEbola Reston

Mammal Reservoir Mammal Reservoir IdentificationIdentification

Species IC Zaire Marburg Sudan RestonFunisciurus anerythrus 1 1 1Funisciurus bayonii ?Funisciurus carruthersi 1 1Funisciurus congicus 1Funisciurus isabella 1Funisciurus lemniscatus 1Funisciurus leucogenys ?Funisciurus pyrropus 1 1 1 1Funisciurus substriatus 1Other Sciurinae 1

Bat Species Coinciding With Bat Species Coinciding With African EbolaAfrican Ebola

Eidolon helvumEpomophorus labiatusEpomops franquetiHypsignathus monstrosusMicropteropus pusillusRousettus aegyptiacusRousettus angolensisMegaloglossus woermanniColeura afraSaccolaimus peliTaphozous mauritianusTaphozous nudiventrisNycteris argeNycteris grandisNycteris hispidaNycteris intermediaNycteris macrotisNycteris majorNycteris nanaLavia frons

Rhinolophus alcyoneRhinolophus fumigatusRhinolophus landeriHipposideros cafferHipposideros commersoniHipposideros cyclopsHipposideros fuliginosusHipposideros ruberKerivoula lanosaChalinolobus poensisChalinolobus variegatusEptesicus capensisEptesicus guineensisEptesicus rendalliEptesicus somalicusEptesicus tenuipinnisMimetillus moloneyiMyotis bocageiMyotis tricolor

Pipistrellus nanusPipistrellus rusticusScotoecus albofuscusScotoecus hirundoScotophilus dinganiiScotophilus nigritaScotophilus robustusScotophilus viridisMiniopterus schreibersiChaerephon bemmeleniChaerephon pumilaMops brachypterusMops condylurusMops midasMops nanulusTadarida aegyptiaca

Example QuestionsExample Questions Emergence of visceral leishmaniasis as an urban Emergence of visceral leishmaniasis as an urban

disease in Brazil … which reservoir species are disease in Brazil … which reservoir species are involved?involved?

Transmission of leprosy in tropical America … Transmission of leprosy in tropical America … what is the role of armadillo distributions in what is the role of armadillo distributions in determining case distribution?determining case distribution?

Risk analysis for hantavirus in Mexico … what is Risk analysis for hantavirus in Mexico … what is the best way to summarize and combine reservoir the best way to summarize and combine reservoir species distributions?species distributions?

Chagas disease … how does a triatomine Chagas Chagas disease … how does a triatomine Chagas vector make the shift from sylvatic to domestic vector make the shift from sylvatic to domestic environments?environments?

And many more …And many more …

Ecological Niche Modeling and DiseasesEcological Niche Modeling and Diseases Large-scale ecological perspective on species’ Large-scale ecological perspective on species’

distributionsdistributions Tool for studyingTool for studying

– geographic distributiongeographic distribution– invasive potentialinvasive potential– effects of changeeffects of change– complex distributional and geographic effectscomplex distributional and geographic effects

Permits reconstruction of disease dynamics based Permits reconstruction of disease dynamics based on the ecological requirements of component on the ecological requirements of component speciesspecies

Demonstrates the critical role that biodiversity Demonstrates the critical role that biodiversity informatics can play in many issues of interest and informatics can play in many issues of interest and importance not just in BIOLOGY, but in public importance not just in BIOLOGY, but in public health and human welfarehealth and human welfare

Thanks ... Thanks ... Any Questions?Any Questions?

town@ukans.edutown@ukans.edu