A Frontline Decision Support System for Georgia Career Centers

A Frontline Decision Support System for Georgia Career Centers

Randall W. Eberts and Christopher J. O’Leary

W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research

www.upjohn.org

Goals of One-stop Career Centers

To integrate and coordinate employment services into a comprehensive and cohesive delivery system

To facilitate employment and career development through informed choice and high quality services

Goals for FDSS

To inform customer choice To integrate information from customer

application, administrative records and labor market information systems

To present relevant information in an accessible way for customers and staff

To appropriately target services to customers

Targeting

With limited WIA funds, not all workers receive intensive or training services

Currently, funds are allocated using informal “targeting” methods First-come, first-served basis Preference to certain groups

Is there a better way to target WIA resources?

FDSS Tools

Tools assist career center staff to: Quickly assess needs of customers Target services to meet customers’ needs Deliver services in an effective and efficient manner

… And aid customers to: Become better informed about job options (reality check) Quickly and systematically access labor market exchange

information and services Find better job matches more quickly Identify services that best meet their needs Determine eligibility for services

Georgia FDSS

Frontline Decision Support System is a joint effort of the USDOL/ETA, the Georgia Department of Labor, and the Upjohn Institute

It provides customized guidance for each individual seeking assistance

FDSS informs choices during: The job search process The service referral process

“As a case worker I would spend at least 30 minutes with each client inputting information that I knew was not going to be used to help myclient directly, but only to fill out reports…

…Now we have an opportunity to use this information to do a better job helping clients.”

State ESD Staff person

Referrals

Service Flow of Career Centers

Intensive Services Training Services

Core Services

Intake

Career Center Services

Assessment interviews Resume workshop Labor market information Job interview referral

Core

Career Center Services

Intensive

• Aptitude and skill proficiency testing

• Individual and group counseling• Case management

• Job finding clubs

• Job search plan• Career planning

• Job search review• UI eligibility review

Career Center Services

Training• Adult basic skills education• On-the-job training• Work experience• Occupational skills training

• Youth educational achievement services• Additional support for youth services• Citizenship skills for youth

FDSS Tools

Tools are customized to reflect an individual’s needs and propensities

Based on the experience of people who have similar characteristics and similar histories of program participation and work

Tools relate outcomes to personal characteristics and other factors

FDSS Tools

Two components:

Tools to help job seekers appraise employment prospects

A ranking of services that may be most effective given a claimants background characteristics

FDSS Tools

Systematic Job Search Module Chance of returning to same industry Estimate likely reemployment earnings Scan job prospects Identify related occupations Provide targeted information about specific jobs

Service Referral Module Rank services by effectiveness for re-employment Indicate typical use

• Estimate chance of returning To industry/occupation

• Review intake info & work history

• Earnings history & estimate• Search job orders• Choose related occupations

Referrals

FDSS Tools

Intensive Services Training Services

Core Services

Intake

Systematic Search Module

Service Referral Module

Data Sources

UI wage records Employment/earnings history

Program records: ES, UI, JTPA/WIA WtW

Worker/client characteristicsProgram participationEmployment history

Labor Market Information

Local unemployment ratesOccupation/industry projectionsRelated/transferable occupationsMassive layoffs

Individual Customer Time Lines

RegistrationRegistration

Personal Personal CharacteristicsCharacteristics

OccupationOccupation

Work HistoryWork History Work OutcomesWork Outcomes

• Industry of post jobIndustry of post job

Program participationProgram participation (services)(services)

•Labor market Labor market ConditionsConditions•Industry of prior jobIndustry of prior job

Available Data

Final Outcomes Earnings/QuarterEmployment

Intermediate Outcomes

Successful programcompletion

ExplanatoryVariables

Program Participation in Activities

Referred toParticipated inCompleted (Dates)

PersonalCharacteristics/

Education/trainingWork experience

Work History Occupation/industryFamily structureMilitary serviceImpairment/disability

Local Labor MarketConditions

Unemployment rateEmployment growth (by industry)

Customized

Modules are customized for different types of job seekers UI claimants: by risk of exhausting benefits ES registrants not eligible for UI Veterans Job seekers referred to special assistance

unit, because of barriers to employment Youth

Customized

And different regions Atlanta Coastal Northern Balance of Georgia

Systematic Job Search Module

Chance of returning to same industry and occupation Expected job growth in prior occupation Estimate likely employment earnings Explore “What if” scenarios Scan job prospects Identify related occupations and continue search

Systematic Job Search Module

Chance of returning to same industry and occupation Expected job growth in prior occupation Estimate likely employment earnings Explore “What if” scenarios Scan job prospects Identify related occupations and continue search

Job Prospects (Returning to Same Industry) and Earnings

Relates job outcomes to: Education Dislocated worker status Disadvantaged worker status Age Prior occupation and industry Work history Military service Barriers to employment (eg., transportation, etc) Local labor market conditions

Returning to Same Industry

Characteristics Person

A B C

Maximum Prior Earnings $7502

Age 35

Education, less than high school 0

Education, more than high school 0

Months of tenure on most recent job 24

Employed 0

Occupation, clerical and sales 1

Held job last quarter 1

Probability of returning to same industry (services) .294

Returning to Same Industry

Characteristics Person

A B C

Maximum Prior Earnings $7502 $15002 $3499

Age 35 35 35

Education, less than high school 0 0 1

Education, more than high school 0 1 0

Months of tenure on most recent job 24 48 8

Employed 0 1 0

Occupation, clerical and sales 1 1 1

Held job last quarter 1 1 0

Probability of returning to same industry (services) .294 .327 .172

Returning to Same Industry

Characteristics Person

A B C

Maximum Prior Earnings $7502 $15002 $3499

Age 35 35 35

Education, less than high school 0 0 1

Education, more than high school 0 1 0

Months of tenure on most recent job 24 48 8

Employed 0 1 0

Occupation, clerical and sales 1 1 1

Held job last quarter 1 1 0

Probability of returning to same industry (services) .294 .327 .172

Predicted Earnings

Characteristics Person

A B C

Maximum Prior Earnings $7502 $15002 $3499

Age 35 35 35

Education, less than high school 0 0 1

Education, more than high school 0 1 0

Months of tenure on most recent job 24 48 8

Likelihood of staying in same industry .294 .327 .172

Occupation, clerical and sales 1 1 1

Predicted Earnings (median) $6728 $12618 $3387

Ratio of predicted earnings to prior earnings .90 .84 .97

Service Referral Algorithm

Provides a customized list of services that have been shown to be most effective in helping participants possessing similar characteristics find and retain jobs Core and intensive list Training list

Based on information about the characteristics and outcomes of recent participants in programs

Service Referral

Two basic components Estimate likelihood of finding a job (needs

assessment) Ranking of services that lead to successful

outcomes for individuals with specific measurable characteristics

Four Step Process

An employability score is computed and assigned to each participant The employability score identifies individuals according to

their propensity to find a job The score is divided into quintiles

The effectiveness of each service is computed for clients within each quintile and client type

Services are ranked according to their effectiveness in assisting clients gain steady employment

For each service, the percentage of clients within each quintile is also displayed

Characteristics by Quintiles

Atlanta Region Employability Score by Quintiles

Characteristics 1 2 3 4 5

Percent UI, disadvantaged only 0.47 0.40 0.24 0.12 0.04

Percent UI, dislocated worker only 0.12 0.13 0.21 0.30 0.39

Employed 0.70 0.78 0.83 0.87 0.90

Employability Score 0.33 0.52 0.64 0.74 0.86

Maximum quarterly earnings $4332 $4534 $5142 $6141 $7675

Bachelor Degree 0.10 0.10 0.13 0.18 0.26

Months tenure with prior job 11 15 19 28 59

Professional, technical occupation 0.17 0.18 0.22 0.31 0.46

Top Five Services

Employability Score Quintiles

(All UI Clients Atlanta Region)

1 2 3 4 5

Testing Testing Job Finding Club

Service Coordination

Service Coordination

Orientation Orientation Testing Testing Testing

Service Coordination

Bonding Assistance

ERP Job Finding Club

Job Finding Club

Specific LMI Service Coordination

Orientation Expanded Workshop

Expanded Workshop

ERP Counseling Counseling Orientation Orientation

Pilot Offices: Lessons Learned

Two pilot career centers— Cobb/Cherokee and Athens

“MUSTS”:

Involve local (and especially line staff) in initial planning and design

Make the system easy for staff and customers to understand and use

Allow experimentation

Pilot Offices: Lessons Learned

Our “To Do” List: TEST, TEST, TEST!!!

Then correct and test again

Add eligibility component Look for ways to keep information timely Experiment with a self-service version

Summary and Conclusion

FDSS is an enhancement of existing one-stop operating systems

It automatically assembles and presents information to inform the choices of individual job seekers

Re-training of one-stop staff is essential and FDSS offers a framework for staff training

A Frontline Decision Support System for Georgia Career Centers

Randall W. Eberts and Christopher J. O’Leary

W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research

www.upjohn.org