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1. To develop realistic numerical simulation models
2. To foster collaboration
3. To foster development of infrastructure & programs
Develop a unified simulation model for earthquake generation and earthquake
cycles
The ACES international cooperation:advances and challenges
The ACES international cooperation:advances and challenges
By Peter Mora
AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements
ACES was established under the Asia PacificEconomic Cooperation (APEC) sponsored by
Australia, China, Japan and USA
• Australia: ISR and ARC• China: MOST, NSFC and CSB• Japan: RIST and JSPS• USA: NASA &NSF (3-rd workshop sponsors)
Thanks to US LOC for organisation of 3-rd WS
The scientific challenge
• Science involves the feedback between a predictive theory and observations
• Such a theory does not exist for earthquakesSuch a theory does not exist for earthquakes
• The earth is a complex systemThe earth is a complex system
WHY?
nonlinear elements + interactions = cooperativebehaviour qualitatively different from elements
Observns Model
Analysis
Observations Theory
SimulationA powerful tool to fuel breakthroughs
SimulationA powerful tool to fuel breakthroughs
Observn’s Model
Analysis
ComputationalVirtual earth laboratory
History & program of activitiesHistory & program of activities
1994 Discussions
1995 AESF Proposal
1996 NSPE Proposal
1997 ACES Proposal endorsed
1998 Planning meeting
1999 Workshop (AUS)
2000 WG Mtg & Workshop (JPN) +
Visitors
2001 WG Mtg (USA)
2002 Workshop (USA)
2004 WG Mtg (AUS)
2004 Workshop (CHINA)
Selected collaborative projects 2000Selected collaborative projects 2000
Australia/Japan
• Fault zone evolution• LSMearth/GeoFEM interface
Australia/USA
• Fault constitutive laws/rate-state friction• Strong motion/teleseismic obs
Australia/China
• Mesoscopic mechanism for catastrophic rupture• Physical mechanism for LURR• Probe relation CP/LURR and critical scaling
Infrastructure developmentsInfrastructure developments
Japan• Earth Simulator – 40 Tflops (1997-2002)• GeoFEM macro-scale software system
Australia• Solid Earth Simulator – 200 Gflops (2000-2002)• LSMearth micro-scale software system• ACcESS MNRF – 2 Tflops (2002-2007)• ESS multi-scale software system
A few selected advances and
highlights from ACES and
its participants
A few selected advances and
highlights from ACES and
its participants
Japan: Earth Simulator ProjectJapan: Earth Simulator Project
MEXT (STA), 1997-2001 F/Y
Objectives• Forecast earth dynamics by "Virtual Earth"• Enhance information science & technology
Development of• Parallel computer “Earth Simulator”• Advanced software Fluid earth : ocean-atmosphere dynamics Solid earth : crust-mantle-core dynamics
Inside of the Earth Simulator Buildinghttp://www.es.jamstec.go.jp
- 640 nodes ( 8 vector processors / node ) - single-stage crossbar network - max 16 Gbytes/sec x 2
SOLID EARTH DYNAMICSSIMULATION SYSTEM
Core-Mantle Dynamics Modelling
Solid Earth Simulation Platform
Earth Simulator: High performance massively parallel processingcomputer system (10TB Memory, 40TFlops Peak Performance)
Crustal Activity Modelling
Earthquake Rupture &
Seismic Wave PropagationSimulation Software
Strong Motion Modelling
Solid Earth ResponseSimulation Software
Earthquake Cycle
Plate Motion
Crustal Activity DataAssimilation Software
Core-Mantle ConvectionSimulation Model
Earthquake RuptueSimulation Model
Crustal ActivitySimulation Model
GeoFEM: Multi-PurposeParallel FEM Code
PIM PIMPIM PIMPIM PIM
Courtesy of Mitsuhiro Matsu’ura
“Solid Earth” simulator“Solid Earth” simulator
Global scale ( 104 km, 106 ~ 108 y )Mantle/Core Dynamics and InteractionInterior Earth Structure
Regional scale ( 103 km, 103 ~ 104
y )Quasi-Static Earthquake Generation CycleDynamic RuptureGPS Tectonic Data Assimilation
Local scale ( 10 km, 102 s )Earthquake GenerationSeismic Wave Propagation
Visualization dataGPPView
One-domain mesh
PEs
Partitioner
構造計算( Static linear )構造計算( Dynamic linear )構造計算
( Contact )
Partitioned mesh
SolverI/F
Comm.I/F
Vis.I/F
UtilitiesStructureFluid
Wave
Pluggable Analysis Modules
Equationsolvers
VisualizerParallelI/O
Platform
System Configuration of GeoFEMSystem Configuration of GeoFEM
Courtesy of Hiroshi Okuda
GeodynamoGeodynamo
Entire mesh Earth’s interior
64 domains P isosurface Magnetic force lines
Electrically conductive fluid in Earth's outer core
Enlarged view
Courtesy of Matsui & Okuda
Modeling of South West JapanModeling of South West Japan
xy
z
FE model of Philippine Sea Plate and Pacific Ocean Plate
ShikokuIzu
Philippine Sea Plate Pacific Ocean Plate
Mantle
Mantle
Courtesy of Iizuka and Hirahara
Long-term Crustal Deformation Caused by Steady Plate Subduction
(a) 3-D geometry of plate interfaces (b) Computed crustal uplift rates
Courtesy of Hashimoto and Matsu’ura
(a) Quasi-static stress accumulation (b) Dynamic rupture propagation
0 Shear Stress (MPa) 3
0 Slip Deficits (m) 2
Shear Stress Slip Deficits Shear Stress Fault Slip
Shear Stress (MPa)
Fault Slip (m)
3-D Simulation of Earthquake Generation Cycles at a Plate Boundary
Courtesy of Fukuyama and Matsu’ura
3-D Simulation of Strong Ground Motion in the 1995 Kobe Earthquake
Seismic wave radiationSeismic wave radiation
Strong ground motion beltsStrong ground motion belts
Rupture initiationRupture initiation
Seismic wave propagationSeismic wave propagation
Courtesy of Furumura and Koketsu
Australia
QUAKES to ACcESSLSMearth micro-model
Australia
QUAKES to ACcESSLSMearth micro-model
• Object oriented “plug-and-play” system
• New virtual environment for micro-model
Courtesy of David Place and Peter Mora
Physics of fault zonesLocalisation phenomena
Physics of fault zonesLocalisation phenomena
From Place & Mora, 2000PAGEOPH, 157, 1821-1845.
Fault constitutive relation
Australia/USAQUAKES/USGS
Fault constitutive relation
Australia/USAQUAKES/USGS
From Abe, Dieterich, Mora and Place, 2002, PAGEOPH, 159, No. 10
Multi-scale simulator development
LSMearth to GeoFEM & EFG
(Australia-Japan: QUAKES/RIST/Yokohama/Tokyo U)
Multi-scale simulator development
LSMearth to GeoFEM & EFG
(Australia-Japan: QUAKES/RIST/Yokohama/Tokyo U)
Courtesy of David Place
The Australian Computational Earth Systems Simulator (ACcESS)
Major National Research Facility
The Australian Computational Earth Systems Simulator (ACcESS)
Major National Research Facility
A multi-scale multi-physics ESS• Achieve a holistic virtual earth simulation capability
• Provide a computational virtual earth serving Australia’s national needs
• Empower Australian geosciences with a never before seen computational capacity
• Act as a focal point for Earth Systems Simulation
Centre for ComputationalEarth Systems Simulation
http://www.access.edu.au
Multi-institutional, multi-disciplinaryMulti-institutional, multi-disciplinary
Queensland (MNRF HQ)
Micro-models, LSMearth software
Comp. ES, earthquakes
QUAKES
Western Australia
Nonlinear rheologies, geodynamics
Comp. mech, mining,
Solid Mech, CSIRO; UWA
VictoriaACRC/Mon, VPAC, Melb, RMIT
Geology, tectonics reconstruction
Min. exploration, SE/Vis/IT
ParticleModels
…
Communication Substrate
ContinuumModels
DataAssimilation
PostProcessing
Visualisation
Observ’s Theory
ComputationalVirtual earth laboratory
Facility developmentFacility development
ParticleModels
…
Communication Substrate
ContinuumModels
DataAssimilation
PostProcessing
Visualisation
Usable software platformPowerful extendable models
Development of software & models and establishment of thematic supercomputer needed for research outcomes.
ObjectivesObjectives
Novel multi-scale simulation methodology:
• Macro-models: Mountains, folding, faulting
• Chemical processes: Mineralisation
• Micro-models: Localisation, fracture, friction
• Virtual earth reconstructions for exploration
• Stress field reconstruction
Broad range of applicability:
• Global scale minerals exploration
• Geohazards mitigation and forecasting
• Mining excavation stability and safety
• Virtual prototyping in mining
Courtesy of/by (top to bottom & L to R): Moresi and Muhlhaus, Mora & Place, Moresi, Sakaguchi, Coutel & Mora
USAUSA
Courtesy of Kim Olsen
Strong ground motion in LA basinStrong ground motion in LA basin
Courtesy of Kim Olsen
Pattern Recognition Techniques Show Promise for Earthquake
Forecasting
Pattern Recognition Techniques Show Promise for Earthquake
Forecasting
Courtesy of Kristy Tiampo and John Rundle
• Red regions indicate anomalies detected through Principal Component Analysis.
• Blue triangles and circles are earthquakes
• Recent earthquakes have occurred in the anomalous regions.
Analysis of observations indicates strong correlations
Analysis of observations indicates strong correlations
Courtesy of Kristy Tiampo & John Rundle
AustraliaCorrelation function evolution in simulations
AustraliaCorrelation function evolution in simulations
TimeFrom Mora and Place, 2002, PAGEOPH, 159, No. 10
p/pc
.001 .01 .1 1
S
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.60
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40 = 0.1 sensitivity energy rate(*10) damage rate(*50)
time(t/0)
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
failure point
time (s)
P sensitivity
ChinaCritical sensitivity
ChinaCritical sensitivity
Courtesy of Mengfen Xia
China/Australia: Load-unload response ratio c.f. AMR
China/Australia: Load-unload response ratio c.f. AMR
1960 1970 1980 1990
AMR observations
Predicted CP
Newcastle earthquake1.2
0.8
0.4
0.0
Ben
ioff
str
ain
(x
107 )
NewcastleEarthquake
time
LURR value5
4
3
2
1
1980 1985 1990
X
XLURR
From Yin and Mora et al, 2002, PAGEOPH, 159, No. 10
LURR vs AMR critical region size(CH/AU … USA)
LURR vs AMR critical region size(CH/AU … USA)
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
log(r)=0.08724+0.3375m
log(
radi
us/k
m)
magnitude
Courtesy of Can Yin (left) and Xiang-chu Yin (right)
Simulation of intact material (AU/CH)Simulation of intact material (AU/CH)
From Mora & Wang et al, 2002, PAGEOPH, 159, No. 10
Exploring system complexity with CA(AU/US/CH)
Exploring system complexity with CA(AU/US/CH)
Courtesy of Dion Weatherley
USA
Simulation of the CA interacting fault system
USA
Simulation of the CA interacting fault system
Southern California Seismicity Space-time Stress Diagram
Courtesy of P.B. Rundle and J.B. Rundle
A Comparison at C-Band:InSAR Difference Fringes Tend to Define the
Rupture Extent
A Comparison at C-Band:InSAR Difference Fringes Tend to Define the
Rupture Extent
Courtesy of John Rundle and Louise Kellogg
The difference fringes are small (red = positive and blue = negative regions), and are concentrated along the portions of the San Andreas that are about to initiate sliding, either in the main shock or the pre-and post-shocks.
ChallengesChallenges
• Understanding the complex system
• Computer speed limited to explore complex system dynamics
• Computational models need to be enhanced• Software effort needs to be increased• Data assimilation effort is large• Cooperation needs to be enhanced
ACES: Towards predictive modelling of earthquake phenomena - a new era of
earthquake science
ACES: Towards predictive modelling of earthquake phenomena - a new era of
earthquake science
A vision future earth systems scienceA vision future earth systems science
Advances in understanding earth physics, numericalsimulation methodology & supercomputer technology
are bringing the vision within reach
A predictive capability for earth system dynamics
Observns Model
Analysis
ComputationalVirtual earth laboratory
c.f. GCM’s
The endAcknowledgements
Contributors (incomplete list)
Rundle, Donnellan, Tiampo, Olsen, GEM & SCEC Place, Mora, Weatherley, Abe, Wang, Yin, Muhlhaus,
MoresiMatsu’ura, Okuda, Nakajima, Matsui, RIST group
Yin, Peng, Xia, CSB/LNM Group
The endAcknowledgements
Contributors (incomplete list)
Rundle, Donnellan, Tiampo, Olsen, GEM & SCEC Place, Mora, Weatherley, Abe, Wang, Yin, Muhlhaus,
MoresiMatsu’ura, Okuda, Nakajima, Matsui, RIST group
Yin, Peng, Xia, CSB/LNM Group
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