1 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 24 November 2016 · 15 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23...

1 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

2 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

3 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

http://deathclock.com/

4 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

How I might die as I age…

http://flowingdata.com/2016/01/19/how-you-will-die/

5 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

6 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

http://deathclock.com/

7 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

The 25 Most Likely Ways You Will

Die…

1. Chuck Norris (disclaimer!)

2. Heart disease (1 in 5)

3. Cancer (1 in 7)

4. Stroke (1 in 23)

5. Accidental Injury (1 in 36)

6. Motor Vehicle Accident (1-in-100)

7. Intentional Self-harm (1-in-121)

8. Falling Down (1-in-246)

9. Assault by Firearm (1-in-325)

10. Fire or Smoke (1-in-1,116)

11. Natural Forces (1-in-3,357)

12. Bicycle Accident (1-in-4,717)

13. Electrocution (1-in-5,000)

14. Drowning (1-in-8,942)http://list25.com/the-25-most-likely-ways-you-will-die/1/

15. Air Travel Accident (1-in-20,000)

16. Flood (1-in-30,000)

17. Legal Execution (1-in-58,618)

18. Tornado (1-in-60,000)

19. Lightning Strike (1-in-83,930)

20. Snake, Bee or other Venomous Bite or

Sting (1-in-100,000)

21. Earthquake (1 in 131,890)

22. Dog Attack (1 in 147,717)

23. Asteroid Impact (1 in 500,000)

24. Tsunami (1 in 500,000)

25. Fireworks Discharge (1 in 615,488)

8 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

Mortality from cardiovascular

diseases has

decreased significantly in most

countries over the last

20 years – further

improvements?

OECD (2013), “Mortality from cardiovascular diseases”, in Health at a Glance 2013: OECD

Indicators, OECD Publishing, Paris.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/health_glance-2013-7-en

Ischemic heart disease

9 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

Mortality from cardiovascular

diseases has

decreased significantly in most

countries over the last

20 years – further

improvements?

OECD (2013), “Mortality from cardiovascular diseases”, in Health at a Glance 2013: OECD

Indicators, OECD Publishing, Paris.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/health_glance-2013-7-en

Cerebrovascular disease

10 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

I’M GONNA LIVE FOREVER

Raymond Bennett

No way!

11 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

Why do I think I am going to live

forever???

http://aging.healthyfoodscience.com/life-expectancy-history/

12 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

Why do I think I am going to live

forever???

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-14/

13 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

Why do I think I am going to live

forever???

14 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

Why do I think I am going to live

forever???

15 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

The 25 Most Likely Ways You Will

Die…

1. Chuck Norris (disclaimer!)

2. Heart disease (1 in 5)

3. Cancer (1 in 7)

4. Stroke (1 in 23)

5. Accidental Injury (1 in 36)

6. Motor Vehicle Accident (1-in-100)

7. Intentional Self-harm (1-in-121)

8. Falling Down (1-in-246)

9. Assault by Firearm (1-in-325)

10. Fire or Smoke (1-in-1,116)

11. Natural Forces (1-in-3,357)

12. Bicycle Accident (1-in-4,717)

13. Electrocution (1-in-5,000)

14. Drowning (1-in-8,942)http://list25.com/the-25-most-likely-ways-you-will-die/1/

15. Air Travel Accident (1-in-20,000)

16. Flood (1-in-30,000)

17. Legal Execution (1-in-58,618)

18. Tornado (1-in-60,000)

19. Lightning Strike (1-in-83,930)

20. Snake, Bee or other Venomous Bite or

Sting (1-in-100,000)

21. Earthquake (1 in 131,890)

22. Dog Attack (1 in 147,717)

23. Asteroid Impact (1 in 500,000)

24. Tsunami (1 in 500,000)

25. Fireworks Discharge (1 in 615,488)

16 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

Cancer: curable in our lifetime

with backing of US Government?

“For the loved ones we’ve all lost, for the family

we can still save, let’s make America the

country that cures cancer once and for all.”

President Obama, State of the Union address

on January 12th, 2016

17 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

http://www.rosalindonline.com/

Cancer: analytic techniques used to customise

treatments to genetic profile of patients?

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Cancer: genetic treatments

“A man in China was injected with modified immune

cells which had been engineered to fight his lung cancer. Larger trials are scheduled to take place next

year in the US and Beijing, which scientists say could open up a new era of genetic medicine.”

“The technique used is called Crispr, which works like tiny molecular scissors snipping away genetic code and

replacing it with new instructions to build better cells.”

“Treating cancer is one of the uses but also potentially combating auto-immune type diseases including things like arthritis although a lot more work will be needed to

bring that to fruition.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2016/11/20/new-era-of-cut-and-paste-humans-close-as-man-injected-with-genet/

19 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

The Berlin patient… cured of HIV?

“To this date, Brown, no longer

on antiretroviral drugs, remains

the only person on Earth to have

been functionally cured of an

otherwise incurable disease.”

http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2014/09/the-berlin-patient-and-the-mysterious-cure-for-hiv/380895/

20 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

Virus killer?

http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/49706.wss

“The short-term potential could be for applications such as an anti-viral wipe or detergent, which would require a small amount of the macromolecule dispersed in water to potentially neutralize an entire room infected with Ebola, for example. Potential longer-term

applications may include the development of a new mode of vaccination that could help prevent a whole category of viral infections.”

http://secondnexus.com/technology-and-innovation/molecule-could-destroy-all-viruses/?utm_content=inf_10_1164_2&tse_id=INF_23ef952f02c54a1ab7cfb2676f185388

21 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

Spinal cord repair

http://www.timeslive.co.za/scitech/2016/11/04/Zebrafish-offers-hope-for-spinal-cord-repair-US-study

"This is one of nature's most remarkable feats of regeneration," said the study's senior investigator Kenneth Poss, a professor of cell biology at Duke University.”

“When the severed spinal cord of the zebrafish undergoes regeneration, a bridge forms. Nerve cells follow and within eight weeks new nerve tissue has plugged the gap, allowing the fish to reverse their

paralysis completely, the Poss team reported.”

22 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

Anti-aging research

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/12/04/the-year-we-decided-to-live-forever.html

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/news/article.cfm?c_id=6&objectid=11553026

http://www.sciencealert.com/scientists-claim-they-ve-completed-the-first-successful-gene-therapy-against-human-ageing

“Telomeres are the clock of aging, so the ability to add them

through activation of the telomerase gene could theoretically

push health spans beyond the maximum – or Hayflick limit –

which is about 120 years.”

Patrick Cox, Tech Digest, 25 April 2016

23 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

“Ira Pastor, chief executive of BioquarkInc said: ‘This represents the first trial of its kind and another step towards the eventual reversal of death in our lifetime. We hope to see results within the first two to three months.’”http://www.timeslive.co.za/thetimes/2016/05/04/Scientists-get-green-light-

to-raise-the-dead

24 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

http://coolmaterial.com/roundup/the-10-best-vehicles-to-survive-the-zombie-apocalypse/

25 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

• “Smallpox was a widespread cause of death in Europe in the eighteenth century

– some 400,000 people died annually…” Loc 666, “Progress: Ten Reasons to Look

Forward to the Future” by Johan Norberg

• “Smallpox was responsible for an estimated 300–500 million deaths during the 20th

century. As recently as 1967, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that

15 million people contracted the disease and that two million died in that year.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox

Frivolous science fiction?

1980!

26 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

Frivolous science fiction?

http://www.westonaprice.org/childrens-health/vaccinations-parents-informed-choice/

27 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

Frivolous science fiction?

28 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

Frivolous science fiction?

29 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

And if we need any more proof – older people

are already living longer, more active lives…

96-year-old Mountain Skier Alexander Rozental

72-year-old Club DJ Ruth Flowers h

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102-year-old Cyclist Robert Marchand

30 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

And if we need any more proof – older people

are already living longer, more active lives…

31 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

What could this mean for us?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/8914212/Work-longer-and-boost-your-State-pension-by-2700-a-year.html

32 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

What could this mean for Life

Insurance?

Copyright 2016 http://www.tagxedo.com/

33 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

I’M GONNA LIVE FOREVER…

…will you live

forever? Will we

all live forever?

Do we want to

live forever?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82Qy1Dd9jdc

34 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016

Further reading…

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/tech/subscribe

https://smile.amazon.com/Progres

s-Reasons-Look-Forward-Future/dp/1780749503/ref=sr_1_1?i

e=UTF8&qid=1479308145&sr=8-1&keywords=progress

“Ten fintech start-ups that are

causing a stir in insurance”:

https://www.ft.com/content/db83

3e5a-6eb1-11e6-a0c9-

1365ce54b926