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1 | Title of presentation | Author | YYYY.MM.DD
Ancillary services or capacity when needed
Mats Nilsson
2013-04
Confidentiality - Critical (C4), High (C3), Medium (C2), None (C1)
2 | Title of presentation | Author | YYYY.MM.DD 2
Political emotions…
PASSION!
Confidentiality - Critical (C4), High (C3), Medium (C2), None (C1)
3 | Title of presentation | Author | YYYY.MM.DD
The electricity price in Sweden 1892-2000 (SEK 2000)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1892 1912 1932 1952 1972 1992
Year
SE
K/M
Wh
“[…] Periodically extremely high prices on Nord Pool.” My translation, my bold
Confidentiality - Critical (C4), High (C3), Medium (C2), None (C1)
4 | Title of presentation | Author | YYYY.MM.DD
Confidentiality - Critical (C4), High (C3), Medium (C2), None (C1)
5 | Title of presentation | Author | YYYY.MM.DD
Confidentiality - Critical (C4), High (C3), Medium (C2), None (C1)
6 | Title of presentation | Author | YYYY.MM.DD
Confidentiality - Critical (C4), High (C3), Medium (C2), None (C1)
7 | Title of presentation | Author | YYYY.MM.DD
Confidentiality - Critical (C4), High (C3), Medium (C2), None (C1)
8 | Title of presentation | Author | YYYY.MM.DD
Confidentiality - Critical (C4), High (C3), Medium (C2), None (C1)
9 | Title of presentation | Author | YYYY.MM.DD
$
Environment
Panic?
Protectionism?
Confidentiality - Critical (C4), High (C3), Medium (C2), None (C1)
10 | Title of presentation | Author | YYYY.MM.DD
Capacity mechanisms in Europe under construction
Confidentiality - Critical (C4), High (C3), Medium (C2), None (C1)
11 | Title of presentation | Author | YYYY.MM.DD
Demand response should be encouraged
Reserve, max Demand, min
2011/2012 1750 25%
2012/2013 1750 25%
2013/2014 1500 50%
2014/2015 1500 50%
2015/2016 1000 75%
2016/2017 1000 75%
2017/2018 750 100%
2018/2019 750 100%
2019/2020 750 100%
Source: https://lagen.nu/2010:2004
Confidentiality - Critical (C4), High (C3), Medium (C2), None (C1)
12 | Title of presentation | Author | YYYY.MM.DD
The Swedish experience: Transmission stabilised supply 2009-2012
-25 000
-20 000
-15 000
-10 000
-5 000
0
5 000
10 000
jan-1
0
aug-1
0
mar-
11
okt-
11
maj-12
dec-1
2
GW
h
Swedish net exchange 2010 through 2012
Record levels hydro
And “good” nuclear
Extreme winter, low
hydro and nuclear
Extreme winter, low
hydro and nuclear
Exp
ort
Sw
ed
en
Im
po
rt
Confidentiality - Critical (C4), High (C3), Medium (C2), None (C1)
13 | Title of presentation | Author | YYYY.MM.DD
Scandinavia as the battery for urban Europe
14
Three intrinsic properties of variable Renewable electricity generation
Output is fluctuating Output is uncertain Resources are
location-specific
• Wind speeds and solar
radiation vary
• Electricity is not a
homogeneous good over
time (storage constraints)
• Thus its value depends on
when it is produced
• Winds and radiation is
uncertain day-ahead
• Adjusting generation on
short notice is costly
(ramping constraints)
• Forecast errors are costly
• Wind and solar resource
quality varies spatially
• Electricity is not a
homogeneous good across
space (grid constraints)
• Thus its value depends on
where it is generated
„Profile costs“ („shaping costs“)
„Balancing costs“ („imbalance costs“)
„Grid-related costs“ („locational / infrastructure
costs“)
Slide courtesy of Lion Hirth
15
Short-term integration costs
Long-term integration costs
System Adaptation: From short-term to long-term Slide courtesy of Lion Hirthj
16
Integration costs are a function of the penetration share (and much more)
Slide courtesy of Lion Hirth
Confidentiality - Critical (C4), High (C3), Medium (C2), None (C1)
17 | Title of presentation | Author | YYYY.MM.DD
Levelized Capital Cost of Capacity
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Inte
rcon
nector
Nat
ural G
as
Gas
Tur
bine
Biom
ass
Con
vent
iona
l Coa
l
Hyd
ro p
ower
Wind
Pow
er
Nuc
lear
Pow
er
Pho
tovo
laic
$/M
Wh
18 | Title of presentation | Author | YYYY.MM.DD
Thank you!
Questions?
mats.nilsson2@vattenfall.com
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