Sunshine Coast Tourism Reseach Sept 2009

Sunshine Coast

Sept 09 Quarterly ReportOctober 2009

Pacific Tower737 Burwood RoadHawthorn Melbourne 3122

Tel : 61 03 98300612

30-Oct-09 1Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1

Introduction

• The purpose of this report is to provide a relevant, timely and concise report for

the Industry Operators and other Stakeholders.

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

2Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1

Introduction

30-Oct-09

Data Sources

• This report uses a number of data sources – dates in brackets refer to the date of

the latest data.

•

•

•

•

•

•

•


Introduction

30-Oct-09

Australia Consumer Confidence - Year to October 09

• Consumer (and Business) Confidence has turned around very quickly, now the

2nd Great Depression didn’t arrive ! .

• Consumer Confidence is now at the boom level of 2006/07.

Source : RMR Confidence Data


Section 1 : External Environment and Tourism Trends

30-Oct-09

Aus. Domestic Overnight - Overall Trends (YE June 09)

• Domestic Overnight travel has suffered with the Global Financial Crisis

(GFC). Since March 08, when the crisis started to hit Australia, the market

has fallen 10%.

• Queensland has not been immune with visitor numbers falling as well.

Market share has recovered after the fall since March 08.

Source : NVS



Visitors (‘000) - LHSMarket Share (%) - RHS

30-Oct-09

Queensland Overnight Holiday - Source Markets

• Total holiday

travel to

Queensland

down 4.2%.

• Big variance

though from

each Region.

• NSW and

Victoria as

source markets

has been weak.

• Queensland has

held up and this

is a favourable

trend for the

Sunshine Coast.

Source : NVS



30-Oct-09

Australian Outbound (YE August 09)

• Australians travelling overseas, in

terms of growth, is starting to grow

again, although the growth is

subdued.

• Travel to Indonesia (Bali) is still

growing spectacularly, and travel

to New Zealand is starting to

increase as well.

Source : ABS



30-Oct-09

Australian Inbound (YE August 09)

• Inbound has been impacted by the

Global Financial Crisis (GFC).

• Even Brits are still visiting less as

their economy suffers.

• The New Zealand market is weak,

although showing a glimmer of

recovery . The US market hardly

recovered from the Iraq war,

terrorism attacks and SARS, and

is now struggling again under the

weight of the weak economy.

Source : ABS



30-Oct-09

Inbound Overnight - Overall Trends (YE June 09)

• Total inbound visitors to Queensland has fallen 10% since the start of the

GFC.

• Queensland has also been losing market share. Over the last 10 years there

has been an erosion of market share.

Source : IVS



30-Oct-09

Sunshine Coast Regional Spending

• Sunshine Coast spending has

softened with the slowdown.

• Domestic Overnight spending has

weakened, after strong growth.

• Inbound spending has turned the

corner and is now growing again.

• Day trip spending is also falling.

Source : IVS/NVS


Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends

30-Oct-09

Regional Spending – Share of Queensland

• The Sunshine Coast’s share of

spending is falling, after a strong

result from 2006 to 2008.

• Share of overnight spending has

softened from the peak, while

inbound is improving.

• Share of day trip spending is

lower.

Source : IVS/NVS



30-Oct-09

Sunshine Coast Inbound (YE June 09)

• Although inbound visitor numbers to the Coast are softening, the Sunshine

Coast is gaining share of Queensland Inbound visitors.

Source : IVS



30-Oct-09

Sunshine Coast Inbound - Market Share Key Markets

• The top four

source

markets for

the Coast are

reviewed.

• The Sunshine

Coast is

gaining share

of the UK and

German

market.

• Share of the

NZ market

falling.

Source : IVS



30-Oct-09

Destination Areas - Inbound Visitors

• Inbound to

Mooroochy

and Cooloola

have been

trending up.

• Noosa Inbound

is steady.

• Caloundra

weaker after

strong growth.

Source : IVS



30-Oct-09

Caloundra - Inbound Visitors (number)

• Caloundra has

a relatively

smaller

unbound

component.

• The New

Zealand

numbers are

down – along

with the

market.

Source : IVS



30-Oct-09

Maroochy - Inbound Visitors (number)

• Maroochy as

well has been

losing New

Zealand

patronage.

• Other markets

look quite

good.

Source : IVS



30-Oct-09

Noosa - Inbound Visitors (number)

• Noosa holding

up well in the

UK, Germany

and Other

Europe.

• New Zealand

numbers are

well down.

Source : IVS



30-Oct-09

Cooloola - Inbound Visitors (number)

• Other than

New Zealand,

international

visitors

numbers is

strong.

Source : IVS



30-Oct-09

Sunshine Coast Domestic Overnight (YE June 09)

• Overnight visitors to the Sunshine Coast have been softening, share as well

is down since Dec. 05.

Source : NVS



30-Oct-09

Sunshine Coast Domestic Overnight - Market Share Key Markets

• Share of the

Queensland

Domestic

overnight market

is steady,

whereas share

from the NSW /

Vic markets is

softening in the

last quarter.

• Share of SA/WA

shows

improvement.

Source : NVS


Note : Share of Qld

overnight domestic

trips


30-Oct-09

Destination Areas - Domestic Overnight Visitors

• Caloundra is

softening.

• Maroochy is

also softening.

• Noosa steady

and so to is

Cooloola.

Source : NVS



30-Oct-09

Caloundra - Domestic Overnight Visitors (‘000)

• Caloundra

numbers are

holding quite

well, although a

little softening

from the

Queensland

market.

Source : NVS



30-Oct-09

Maroochydore - Domestic Overnight Visitors (‘000)

• Interstate

numbers are

holding up OK.

• Main fall has

been with the

Queenslanders

over the last

year.

Source : NVS



30-Oct-09

Noosa - Domestic Overnight Visitors (‘000)

• Noosa visitor

numbers from

interstate are

weaker.

• Queensland

holding up

well.

Source : NVS



30-Oct-09

Cooloola - Domestic Overnight Visitors (‘000)

• Cooloola

visitor

numbers

reasonably

steady over the

last year.

Source : NVS



30-Oct-09

Sunshine Coast Visitors earning Household Income of $150K +

• In the domestic market,

the Coast has attracted

a higher proportion of

the $150K+ Household

Income market – they

have been driving the

spending growth.

• But over the last six

months, numbers have

started to drop as the

GFC impacted, plus

softening Preference.

Source : NVS

26Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 130-Oct-09


Sunshine Coast Day Trips (YE June 09)

• More day trippers are coming to the Sunshine Coast , but they are spending

less in total, ie yield per person is falling.

• Sunshine Coast gaining share of Queensland day trippers.

Source : NVS



30-Oct-09

Destination Areas - Day Trip Visitors

• All four

Destinations

areas are

growing day

trips.

Source : IVS


Data unavailable

30-Oct-09


Sunshine Coast Preference (YE June 09)

• The Sunshine Coast Preference is up from the 2007 trough , but share is still

soft.

Source : Roy Morgan Holiday Tracking Study


Section 3 : Consumer Preference

30-Oct-09

Sunshine Coast Preference (YE June 09) - Key Source Markets

• In terms of key

markets, Preference is

well down in Sydney.

In fact, Preference is

down 34% from the

peak in 2003.

• Brisbane Preference

has started to soften.

• Preference from

Melbourne is growing

again.


Sydney (‘000)

Melbourne (‘000)

Brisbane (‘000)



30-Oct-09

Sunshine Coast Preference (YE June 09)

• Preference for Noosa is

stabilising, Caloundra

as well.

• The Hinterland

Preference is growing

while Preference for

Maroochydore/

Moolooaba is softening.


Caloundra (‘000) Maroochydore/

Mooloolaba (‘000)

Noosa (‘000) Maleny, Montville,other

Hinterland (‘000)Gympie, Hervey Bay,

Maryborough (‘000)


30-Oct-09

Gold Coast Preference

• The Gold Coast ‘s Preference has steadied – share is trending up over the

last 12-18 months.




30-Oct-09

Sunshine Coast – Positioning Profile

• This charts the

alignment of a

destination (in this case

the Sunshine Coast)

with Lifestyle

Segments.

• For example, while

Affluent Families are

8% of the population,

they account for 11% of

SC Preference – that is

this segment has a

higher propensity to

want to holiday on the

Coast.

• Sunshine Coast is

more aligned with the

family and more

affluent segments.

Affluent Families (8%) Affluent Empty

Nesters (6%)

Golden Age Lifestylers (1%)

Average Age (years)Source : Roy Morgan Single Source June 09 (3 year average)

10 20 4030 50 60 70 80

Per

son

al In

com

e (

$’0

00

)

0

60

20

10

50

70

40

30

EMDA Consumer Positioning Map EMDA Lifestyle SegmentationBase :Australia

TM

Sunshine Coast Preferrers

Students (8%)

Affluent Singles (7%)

Spend it All Singles (10%)

Battler Families (12%)

Surviving Families (8%)

Struggling Retirees (5%)

Mid Income Empty

Nesters (10%)

Surviving Empty Nesters (10%)

Grey Survivors (11%)

5%

Affluent Couples (3%)

Saving Couples (2%)

9%

3%

12%

8%

1%

15%

11%

5%3%

8%

8%

7%

6%



C EMDA 2003

30-Oct-09

Australia – Sunshine Coast Preference / Core Segments

• Preference is falling amongst the core

family segments.

• Amongst the Affluent Empty Nesters,

Preference is still holding up.


(‘000)

(‘000)(‘000)


30-Oct-09

Why did Preference Fall ? (findings from market research)*

• Congestion on the Bruce Highway is a barrier - especially for Brisbane people : -• “The last time we went there we sat in a queue for 2 hours just to get home. That was it. Its one of

those we went for a wedding and we had to come home on the Sunday and we just sat there and

thought never again.”

• “Sometimes it can hit hard, times where you get literally get caught in the middle of it and you just think

Oh God I’m stuck” “2 night weekends aren’t worth it, but the time you leave work on Friday and cope

with the traffic, its just not worth it”

• “Don’t even talk to me about it! Yes, that is what is really deterring us at the moment, Its just not worth

it going up unless you leave really late, because otherwise you hit the traffic and you just get there and

have to come home again. Its becoming a terrible problem, you can sit in traffic for over an hour just on

the freeway. Its like going down the Gold Coast 10 years ago”

• “Heading north is horrible at the moment. Coming back is equally as bad. We went up to Coolum to

see the in laws last weekend and it took us over 2 hours just sitting in traffic from just this side of

Caloundra through to home. Stop and start, there’s road works and I know it will improve in time, but

we think we cant be bothered fighting the traffic, we think we’ll go the other way.”

• Given that the No. 1 motivation (as identified in the TSC visitor surveys) is relax and

rejuvenate and that this motivation is increasing in importance, clearly traffic

congestion will be a significant turn-off.


* 24 in-depth interviews amongst “lapsed” Preferrers, Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne


Why did Preference Fall ?

• A major reason is “we just want to go somewhere different” :-• “We sort of still like it, but now we’re about to go to NZ so we’re doing something different apart from

somewhere where we would normally go. We’re not disliking the Sunshine Coast but we’re choosing

to go elsewhere.”

• “We’ll go bushwalking in the National Park and choose it over the coast because we’ve done the

coast so many times.”

• “Only because we haven’t been to the Gold Coast as much as we have to the Sunshine Coast.

We’re not disenchanted with the Sunshine Coast. It’s just that there’s so many beautiful places on

the Gold Coast as well”

• “Well we’ve been there, done that. We go there for day trips, so for holidays we’ve never been to the

Great barrier reef before. We leave on Friday to go to the Whitsundays. There’s just so much in

Queensland. Ill still go to the Sunshine Coast if I have a day off, and as a choice Ill choose the

Sunshine Coast over the Gold Coast any day.”

• For some – particularly from Brisbane the area is becoming overdeveloped and

crowded :-• “Its getting too commercial and too crowded”

• “I mean its still very pretty and nice, but if you’re wanting something nice and relaxing its not

necessarily the place to go. It depends what time of the year as well.”

• “We’d never go at Easter or times like that, we hate crowds”

• “The beach (Noosa) is wall to wall people around you”




• There isn’t so much for the kids to do :-• “Since we’ve had the kids we go to the Gold Coast, I don’t think there’s much to do there with the kids.

(8+10). Gold Coast there’s always something to do with all the theme parks there it’s a bit more

exciting than the Sunshine Coast.”

• “As far as the kids are concerned, they’re teenagers now and there’s no attraction on the Sunshine

Coast now, they love the theme parks.”

• Overseas is an attractive option :-• “We’ll be heading overseas. Aussie dollar at the moment is too good to pass up. I’ve just gotten back

from Vegas, next I wouldn’t mind New York or Europe..”

• “Overseas with the bargains that are around at the moment. Everything overseas is so cheap. Hawaii,

NZ”

• The climate has started to impact :-• “I think it might be warm, but you do hear about all the wild weather, cyclonic type weather, so I’d be

concerned to go at the right time of the year.”• “To tell you the truth its been pretty consistent. Ill be honest, we’ve had consistent rain up on the

Sunshine Coast, whereas on the Gold Coast it’s pretty good” “We went up there one January and just

got rain and we won’t be going back”

• “Its been hot in Brisbane so going somewhere cool is appealing, like Tasmania Stanthorpe is very

elevated place so it’s a lot cooler. “ “Ill go at a different time of the year. Its hot now even.”

• “We also want the change from a hot holiday to a cooler one. We want to change to cooler places and

vineyards, we’d like to see Tassy, we haven’t seen Tassy. Its like going to a different climate really,

sitting by the fire romantic in the freezing cold. Something different.”




• It can be expensive :-• “I thought the restaurants were just too expensive even. Drop the prices a bit more for tourists. They’re

too dear.” “I found the surf clubs restaurants were more expensive than the Gold Coast”

• “But all we had to do was look at shops or eat and eat and it’s really expensive”• “We went up to Noosa. We never really liked Noosa. We had lunch at the surf club. It’s a boutique

environment its way too expensive.”

• Some had experienced disappointing holidays :-• “We live on the beaches down here though, it was nice but not too good, and the weather didn’t help

when we went. It was Jan. and rained most of the time we were there! We thought you’d go to the

Sunshine Coast for sunshine, well we got rain! It was very, very disappointing.”

• “They’ve got to have a few more things you can go and have a look at. Like to do when the weather

isn’t good.” “I’m very disappointed with the Sunshine Coast. No 1 they need some places to go and

look at, maybe even a theme park”

• Note : The TSC Visitor survey quantifies that 1.6% of visitors are either very dissatisfied or dissatisfied –

this equates to 48,000 overnight visitors annually.

• See little advertising about the Sunshine Coast, therefore interest isn’t prompted :-• “there are other places you hear more about. You don’t hear about the Sunshine Coast area”

• “You see the advertisements for the Gold Coast and theme parks, you never see any for the Sunshine

Coast.. I’m not knocking it completely, but you never see much advertising for it.”

• “They don’t advertise anything up there. We’ve just been to Melbourne and Melbourne’s always on the

telly and things like that, or Vic. We had a lovely time down there, lots to do. They advertise Melbourne

Vic, NZ but nothing on the Sunshine Coast. Besides the Australian zoo on the way there.”



What would encourage you to Holiday on the Sunshine Coast ?


• Provide a better understanding of what is available :-• “Probably if we knew a bit more about what was up there for the kids. To be honest I hardly know

what’s up there to do like I do with the Gold Coast. What would we do on our busy days. Like we

have one day out then one day beachy, so what would we do on our busy day? We always think of it

like that”

• “I constantly see ads for Gold Coast. I’ve never seen any ads for Noosa or anything like that, and

certainly not kid wise.”

• “I don’t know much about the Sunshine Coast If I knew more about it I might consider it.”

• Cater more for kids activities :-• “It might be nice for me and my husband I think but not so much for the kids. We could relax and laid

back, but the kids would always ask what they can do.”

• “ If you’re comparing the sunshine coast and the Gold Coast, to me the only difference is the theme

parks. As far as the kids are concerned, they’re teenagers now and there’s no attraction on the

Sunshine Coast now, they love the theme parks.”

• Provide an all inclusive holiday :-• “Somewhere that’s all inclusive for the price. Sunshine Coast is far away and you’re looking at air

fares. “• “We are looking ay Fiji, with it’s all inclusive fares , that way you know what you are up for”.


Sunshine Coast Accommodation

• Economic woes, issues raised in the Preference decline report are a drag on

accommodation takings growth on the Sunshine Coast.

• Market share is though better, after the slump of Dec. 09. Other areas even

more impacted (ie Cairns, Gold Coast Conventions market).

Source : ABS


Section 4 : Business Performance

Includes establishments with 5 or more rooms.

30-Oct-09

Destination Areas - Takings (% p.a)

• Caloundra is

growing strongly.

• Noosa and

Cooloola

recovering.

• Rate of decline

slowing in

Maroochy.

Maroochy NZ’s

market has

declined 19% from

June 2007.

Source : ABS



Note : March 09/June 09 data modelled from ABS destination area data. The modelling component represents 5% of the total recorded turnover

30-Oct-09

Destination Areas - Share of Queensland Takings (% p.a)

• Caloundra,

Noosa and

Cooloola are

gaining share.

• Maroochy ‘s

share still

weakening.

Source : ABS



30-Oct-09

Destination Areas - Takings (% p.a)

• Gold Coast is also

slowing –

Conventions have

been hard hit.

• Byron Bay is was

growing again.

• The

accommodation

sector in Cairns is

really suffering –

with takings down

nearly 8%.

• Whitsundays

suffering as well.

Source : ABS



30-Oct-09

Economic Outlook

• The Global Financial Crisis is impacting on the Australian economy, but the

worst is behind us.

• Both Australian GDP and Private Consumption are expected to recover.

Source : ABS / EMDA


F F

Section 6: Demand Outlook for the Sunshine Coast

30-Oct-09

Economic Outlook – Key Source States

• For the core source

States, the outlook is

much better.

• All are expected to

recover, although

NSW is forecast to

lag behind a little as it

has since 2000.

Source : ABS/ EMDA


F

Qld

NSW

VIC


30-Oct-09

Sunshine Coast Visitor Forecasts

• With some recovery over 2010, the

outlook is better in terms of visitor

numbers.

• Inbound is still forecast to be more

impacted than Domestic overnight.

Source : EMDA


Inbound (RHS)

Domestic (LHS)

F

Total Domestic and International (LHS)

F

Inbound Drivers (R2 = 0.87)

NZ GDP, UK GDP, TFC

Outlook, $A exchange Rate

Domestic Drivers (R2 = 0.91)

QLD, NSW, Vic Private

Consumption., RMR Preference


30-Oct-09

Sunshine Coast Accommodation Sector Forecasts

• With better visitor number

forecasts, the

accommodation sector is

forecast to grow +1.0% by

June 2010.

Source : EMDA


($’000)

F

Inbound Drivers (R2 = 0.87)

NZ GDP, UK GDP, TFC

Outlook, $A exchange Rate


QLD, NSW, Vic Private

Consumption., RMR Preference

Note : ABS Base Establishments with 5 or more rooms


30-Oct-09

Accommodation Forecasts (SC and Destination Area)

• Now, only

Maroochy is

expected to be

soft in the year

to June 2010.

• Outlook for

Caloundra,

Noosa and

Cooloola all look

better in 2010.

Source : EMDA



QLD, NSW, Private Consumption.,

RMR Preference


QLD, NSW, Inbound Forecasts


QLD, NSW, Vic Private Consumption.,

Inbound Forecasts, RMR Preference


QLD, NSW Private Consumption.

RMR Preference

F F

F


30-Oct-09

Summary

• The external environment has become much more positive than it was in late 2008 /

early 2009. Holiday demand from Queenslanders has held up well and this has been

a plus for the Sunshine Coast.

• Total tourism spending on the Coast is softening under the weight of the GFC, but

share of overnight domestic spending is steady and Inbound spending share is

growing again.

• The Sunshine Coast has been growing share of the International market, with the

New Zealand market being the only real problem area.

• On the domestic front, Visitor numbers are lower and so is market share, although

the softening is mainly in the interstate markets. The stable Queensland source

market has benefited the Sunshine Coast.

• Preference for the Sunshine Coast continues to be soft. A number of factors have

been identified that contribute to this including , the Bruce Highway, insufficient

advertising weight in the Sydney and Melbourne, consumers wanting a change,

climate, losing appeal to the kids, consumers looking for more packages and

crowding at peak times.


Section 6: Summary

30-Oct-09

Summary

• The depth of the loss of Preference for many, means they are unlikely to return. Such

factors as the desire to visit elsewhere “we just want to go somewhere else for a

change, we have been so many times” and strong dissatisfaction with their last

holiday , are unlikely to be reversed. This means in turn, that more effort will need to

made to attract first time Preferrers – ie new people to the Sunshine Coast.

• Accommodation takings are recovering and the Sunshine Coast is regaining some

share and its relative lack of exposure to the International market and business travel

pays dividends.

• The outlook is now better than it was six months ago and the outlook for the

accommodation sector and the Coast also looks better. This assumes that the

factors impacting Preference don’t intensify.


Section 6: Summary

30-Oct-09

Disclaimer

While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy of the data in this report, EMDA has not audited the data sources and therefore does not accept any responsibility in relation to financial and/or decisions based on this information.

Ownership of all Intellectual Property (modelling methods, EMDA Positioning Maps resides with EMDA).
