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Keynote presentation by Dean Bubley, at the Upperside conference on WebRTC, December 11-12 in Roissy, Paris. Covers forecast device support, use-cases, strategic issues & benefits, browser vs. mobile support & value chain trends
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WebRTC Market Status & Forecasts: Beyond the Phone CallDean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
WebRTC Paris, December, 2013
[email protected] @disruptivedean
About Disruptive Analysis
London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm Cross-silo, contrarian, visionary, independent Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors Covering VoIP since 1997 & 3G/4G mVoIP since 2007 Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, Feb 2012 Full report on WebRTC, Feb 2013, updated Jun & Oct’13 Workshops on Future of Voice & TelcoOTT
Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013December 2013
Contact [email protected] for details on WebRTC analyst report & for speaking engagements
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Intent & context....
December 2013
Why do people make phone calls (or send
messages, share media or use video), anyway?
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The chart you’ll never see… calls by “purpose”
Gossip
Meeting up
Flirting
Spam
Showing off
Work
Wasting time
December 2013
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Different contexts
December 2013
Living room
Board room
Airline loungeBar
Public transport
Out walking
At work
& Multi-taskingConcentrating
DrunkAsleep
Using an app
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1 OR 2 “UBIQUITOUS SERVICES” CANNOT FULFILL ALL THESE
PURPOSES WELL
(MORE LIKE “DUMB SERVICES” THAN UBIQUITOUS ONES)
December 2013
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Fragmentation of communications models
Standalone calls
Non-call comms
Embedded app/web voice & video
December 2013
CircuitIP
Good to have “lowest common denominator”
Ubiquity no/negative benefit
Maybe ubiquitous in a niche
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The vision: voice & video comms everywhere
December 2013
Servicee.g. SMS, Telephony Product
e.g. Lync, Uberconference
Featuree.g. Business social
Function
WebRTC & HTML5 are game-changers
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Why is WebRTC important?
WebRTC is maybe most exciting thing in comms for 10 years Already here & being used A “movement” as well as a standard “Democratisation” of voice & video into web & apps Goes beyond traditional “call” model of user interaction Low bar to experimentation (eg open-source) Realtime data will be the real surprise Not just about browsers A new ecosystem for developers, telcos & cloud players Billions of devices & users!
December 2013
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... although not quite as “easy as it looks” yet
Oct 2013
Signalling
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3-way support for WebRTC now expanding
WebRTC
Enterprise
TelcoConsumer Web
Oct 2013
DevicesNetwork
tools
TV & gaming
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View Oct’13: lead WebRTC use-cases
December 2013
Early enterprise adoption
Initial consumer web apps/devices
Live & commercial
Verticals & corporatePilots / pre-commercial
Trials & demos
Telco, Entertainment, M2M, other…
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WebRTC supported on >4bn devices by 2016
December 2013
Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Strategy Report update October 2013
Contact [email protected] for details on WebRTC analyst
report & for speaking engagements
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WebRTC rapidly expanding past “calls”
December 2013
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The future?
December 2013
Sleep Apnoea (snoring + breathing) monitoring & diagnosis: not a “phone call”!
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Beyond browsers: mobile apps & API platforms
December 2013
Q4'12
Q1'13
Q2'13
Q3'13
Q4'13
Q1'14
Q2'14
Q3'14
Q4'14
Q1'15
Q2'15
Q3'15
Q4'15
Q1'16
Q2'16
Q3'16
Q4'16
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Total WebRTC mobile devices
- Browser support
- Non-browser support
Installed base, m
Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Strategy Report update October 2013
For telcos WebRTC is really a magnifier/catalyst
Now
With WebRTCBigger opportunities
Worse threatsFaster speed
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Main WebRTC strategies for SPs?
Extend on-net services & IMS / SS7
Turbocharge Telco-OTT
apps
Sell packaged WebRTC
services to subscriberEnhance
developer platform(s)
TV, entertain- ment & digital
services
Strengthen enterprise &
verticals
December 2013
Also: invest / incubateImprove own CRM & systems
Maybe M2M, devices etc
IMS should be <30% total WebRTC effort &
investment. Too slow, too call-centric
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OS
Standalone PC or mobile
app
WebRTC about to fragment?
December 2013
Javascript APIs
Codecs & network & security protocols
Original concept for WebRTC
Codecs & network
& security protocols
3rd party APIs
Codecs & network & security
protocols
Codecs & network & security
protocols
Native OS APIs
Now
Future
Browser or apps
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WebRTC made easier via 3rd-party APIs
December 2013
CU-RTC-Web?
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WebRTC in 2014: what to expect? 1.7bn WebRTC-supporting devices end-’14
Mobile devices almost 500m Non-browser support growing rapidly
Active WebRTC user base 600m Includes “lightweight”/background WebRTC usage
Apple & Microsoft weakly supporting WebRTC Some fragmentation is inevitable
Several major Internet players using WebRTC Enterprise use-cases still leading, consumer catching up Telco use patchy, centred on developers / Telco-OTT
Slow deployment & uptake of IMS-integrated WebRTC Surprises! Especially around data use of WebRTC
December 2013
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www.disruptive-analysis.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean
Contact [email protected] for details on WebRTC
analyst report & for speaking engagements
