WebRTC Market Status & Forecasts: Beyond the Phone CallDean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
WebRTC Paris, December, 2013
[email protected] @disruptivedean
About Disruptive Analysis
London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm Cross-silo, contrarian, visionary, independent Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors Covering VoIP since 1997 & 3G/4G mVoIP since 2007 Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, Feb 2012 Full report on WebRTC, Feb 2013, updated Jun & Oct’13 Workshops on Future of Voice & TelcoOTT
Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013December 2013
Contact [email protected] for details on WebRTC analyst report & for speaking engagements
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
Intent & context....
December 2013
Why do people make phone calls (or send
messages, share media or use video), anyway?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
The chart you’ll never see… calls by “purpose”
Gossip
Meeting up
Flirting
Spam
Showing off
Work
Wasting time
December 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
Different contexts
December 2013
Living room
Board room
Airline loungeBar
Public transport
Out walking
At work
& Multi-taskingConcentrating
DrunkAsleep
Using an app
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
1 OR 2 “UBIQUITOUS SERVICES” CANNOT FULFILL ALL THESE
PURPOSES WELL
(MORE LIKE “DUMB SERVICES” THAN UBIQUITOUS ONES)
December 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
Fragmentation of communications models
Standalone calls
Non-call comms
Embedded app/web voice & video
December 2013
CircuitIP
Good to have “lowest common denominator”
Ubiquity no/negative benefit
Maybe ubiquitous in a niche
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
The vision: voice & video comms everywhere
December 2013
Servicee.g. SMS, Telephony Product
e.g. Lync, Uberconference
Featuree.g. Business social
Function
WebRTC & HTML5 are game-changers
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013December 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
Why is WebRTC important?
WebRTC is maybe most exciting thing in comms for 10 years Already here & being used A “movement” as well as a standard “Democratisation” of voice & video into web & apps Goes beyond traditional “call” model of user interaction Low bar to experimentation (eg open-source) Realtime data will be the real surprise Not just about browsers A new ecosystem for developers, telcos & cloud players Billions of devices & users!
December 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
... although not quite as “easy as it looks” yet
Oct 2013
Signalling
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
3-way support for WebRTC now expanding
WebRTC
Enterprise
TelcoConsumer Web
Oct 2013
DevicesNetwork
tools
TV & gaming
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
View Oct’13: lead WebRTC use-cases
December 2013
Early enterprise adoption
Initial consumer web apps/devices
Live & commercial
Verticals & corporatePilots / pre-commercial
Trials & demos
Telco, Entertainment, M2M, other…
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
WebRTC supported on >4bn devices by 2016
December 2013
Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Strategy Report update October 2013
Contact [email protected] for details on WebRTC analyst
report & for speaking engagements
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
WebRTC rapidly expanding past “calls”
December 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
The future?
December 2013
Sleep Apnoea (snoring + breathing) monitoring & diagnosis: not a “phone call”!
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
Beyond browsers: mobile apps & API platforms
December 2013
Q4'12
Q1'13
Q2'13
Q3'13
Q4'13
Q1'14
Q2'14
Q3'14
Q4'14
Q1'15
Q2'15
Q3'15
Q4'15
Q1'16
Q2'16
Q3'16
Q4'16
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Total WebRTC mobile devices
- Browser support
- Non-browser support
Installed base, m
Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Strategy Report update October 2013
For telcos WebRTC is really a magnifier/catalyst
Now
With WebRTCBigger opportunities
Worse threatsFaster speed
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013December 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
Main WebRTC strategies for SPs?
Extend on-net services & IMS / SS7
Turbocharge Telco-OTT
apps
Sell packaged WebRTC
services to subscriberEnhance
developer platform(s)
TV, entertain- ment & digital
services
Strengthen enterprise &
verticals
December 2013
Also: invest / incubateImprove own CRM & systems
Maybe M2M, devices etc
IMS should be <30% total WebRTC effort &
investment. Too slow, too call-centric
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
OS
Standalone PC or mobile
app
WebRTC about to fragment?
December 2013
Javascript APIs
Codecs & network & security protocols
Original concept for WebRTC
Codecs & network
& security protocols
3rd party APIs
Codecs & network & security
protocols
Codecs & network & security
protocols
Native OS APIs
Now
Future
Browser or apps
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
WebRTC made easier via 3rd-party APIs
December 2013
CU-RTC-Web?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
WebRTC in 2014: what to expect? 1.7bn WebRTC-supporting devices end-’14
Mobile devices almost 500m Non-browser support growing rapidly
Active WebRTC user base 600m Includes “lightweight”/background WebRTC usage
Apple & Microsoft weakly supporting WebRTC Some fragmentation is inevitable
Several major Internet players using WebRTC Enterprise use-cases still leading, consumer catching up Telco use patchy, centred on developers / Telco-OTT
Slow deployment & uptake of IMS-integrated WebRTC Surprises! Especially around data use of WebRTC
December 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013December 2013
www.disruptive-analysis.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean
Contact [email protected] for details on WebRTC
analyst report & for speaking engagements