The future is a foreign country

© Telstra Corporation Limited 2010. All rights reserved© Telstra Corporation Limited 2010. All rights reserved© Telstra Corporation Limited 2010. All rights reserved

The future is a foreign country*

Hugh Bradlow, Chief Technology Officer, Telstra Corporation

1

* With apologies to L.P. Hartley

© Telstra Corporation Limited 2010. All rights reserved© Telstra Corporation Limited 2010. All rights reserved

What does technology progress look like?

What drives technology progress?

How can technology progress change society?

How is Australia placed in the global technology race?

2

Outline

© Telstra Corporation Limited 2010. All rights reserved

What does technology progress look like?

3


Mobile

4


Realistic: Electronic Wallpaper

5


Realistic: 3D and Holography

6


Realistic: Wearable displays

7

Picture from the Australian Financial Review, 31 Dec 1998


Entertainment on demand

8


Information on demand

9


Processing on demand

10

CPU Memory I/O

Backplane Bus

Cloud Computing


Sensing the environment

11

Google Power Meter

Security systems

Wireless band-aid

Fall detector Water quality

Air quality

Individuals Homes Ecosystems


Sensing you: (Context-based computing)

12


What drives technology progress?

13


Computing power

14

Moore’s Law: The number of transistors that can be placed on an integrated circuit has doubled approximately every two years

$0.01

$0.10

$1.00

$10.00

$100.00

$1,000.00

$10,000.00 Cost of Storage

DiskFlash

US $

/Gbyte


Telecommunications requirements

15

1.5 Mbps 12 Mbps 26 Mbps

Gaming Triple PlaySDTV

Triple PlayHDTV

100 Mbps AccessSpeeds 256kbps

Ultra HD & 3D TV

64kbps

Web Surfing


Telecommunications Power

16

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Dow

nstr

eam

Pea

k Sp

eed

(Mbp

s)

WirelineWireless

HSDPA 14M

LTE 150 M

HSPA 42 MHSPA 21 M

HSPA 84 M

LTE 300 M

LTE –Advanced

NG PON2 40G

NG PON1 10G

GPON 2.5G

BPON 620M

ADSL1 8M

ADSL2+ 24M

DOCSIS 3 150M

BandwidthHSPA: 5,10 MHzLTE: 20 MHzLTE- A: 100 MHz

?

?

Assumptions: Top of line commercial broadband services deployed, low network load and burst speeds. Typical customer speeds will be lessSources: Telstra services and future estimates. Future wireless access estimates based on 3GPP standards


Technology’s impact on society

17

© Telstra Corporation Limited 2010. All rights reserved© Telstra Corporation Limited 2010. All rights reserved Slide 18

Ultra-broadband = A fundamental shift in the economy


Business productivity: cloud services

19© 2010 Telstra Corporation Limited. All rights reserved

Variabilise cost

Leverage high computing power

Time

Capa

city

Traditional

Cloud Computing

Avoid Waste

Scale quickly & efficiently

Infrastructure

Less reliance on scarce skills

Software

Access data and people from anywhere

Best of breed applications


Smart infrastructure

20

Magnetic Nails

Sensors, Computers andCommunications Devices


Reduced pressure on infrastructure

21


Transformed Healthcare

22

Clinic, Pharmacy, Remote Hospital

City hospital


Empowering Individuals with Connected Devices

23

Medical portal Glucose meter

Wireless transfer to hosted portal

Parameter transfer via Bluetooth

Next G Mobile Phone


Managing energy consumption

24



25



26


Australia’s position in the global information economy

27


Engineers are the lifeblood of a technological society

28

Australia Israel USA UK0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Engineers per unit population*

Engineers per 10,000 people

Roughly the same as USA, but about 57% of Israel

*Figures for 2007-2009


Engineers are the lifeblood of a technological society

29

Aus-tralia

China Israel USA UK0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Engineering graduates per unit population*

Engineering graduates per annum per 10,000 people

Australia more than double USA, and almost the same as Israel – however, this includes 41% overseas students

*Figures for 2007-2009

China graduates every year almost 3 times the total number of engineers in Australia


Entrepreneurism

30

Israel Australia0

20

40

60

Number of Companies Listed on NASDAQ

Japan

USA

Isra

el

Canad

a

Austra

lia0

400

800

1200

Patents per million popu-lation (2002-2006)*

*Economist Intelligence Unit white paper, “Innovation: Transforming the way business creates”, May 2007

Japa

n USA

Isra

el

Canad

a

Austral

ia

OEC

D A

vera

ge0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

Government R&D expenditure as a % of GDP (2008/9 or latest

year)


Technology adoption

31

Japan US Israel Canada Australia0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

ICT Expenditure per capita (2008) ($US '000)


1984 (George Orwell’s book, not the year!)

32

CDMATD-SCDMA

3GSM

LTE


Australia as Market Shaper in Unified LTE world

33

470

MH

z

890

MH

z

Digital Dividend

862

MH

z

790

MH

z

Country specific extra assignment

Europe

470

MH

z

890

MH

z

806

MH

z

Reassigned for Mobile (1980s)

698

MH

z

Digital Dividend

Res

erve

d

USChina, KoreaIndia, Japan, NZ, others

820

MH

z

520

MH

z

Region 3 (Asia and A/P)

Australian Proposal

694

MH

z

Regional Digital Dividends


Getting to know our customers