Joint ICE and APM Prestige Lecture

Sustainability: the driver for

innovation?

Designing Resilient

Cities

Rob MacKenzie (on behalf of the Urban Futures team)

Monday 1 July, 2013

Sustainability, no matter what definition is used,

is all about the future - putting in place now interventions

(solutions) to problems that will yield a positive rather than negative

future legacy.

Sustainability and Interventions I

Joint ICE and APM Prestige Lecture

Question

“how sustainable are

the interventions we

propose?”

Designing Resilient Cities

Tower Blocks

Built as a response

to post-War housing

crisis

Initially seen as sign

of modernity

People enjoyed the

light, the new

bathrooms and

kitchens

Poor maintenance

Poor management

Failed lifts and other

amenities

Key Learning

Maintenance and

management critical to

success; intervention is

a system

Tower Blocks

for housing

What sometimes happens…

Case study

(+

Assessment

modelling)

Problem

identified

Solution

designed

Nothing

Happens

Solution

Successful

Something

bad happens

INNOVATION

Sustainability and Interventions II

For an intervention to succeed, certain necessary conditions must remain

in place

but these conditions are usually only implicitly considered (if at all) in

planning and development.

The continuation of necessary conditions determines the resilience of a

solution.

Joint ICE and APM Prestige Lecture

Question

“how sustainable are

the interventions we

propose?”

Designing Resilient Cities

Answer

“it depends on

what the futures

hold”

The Future is plural

Futures thinking exploits the human capacity for change

Urban Futures are

• derived from established philosophical positions: Thomas

Hobbes, JS Mill, Adam Smith, EF Schumacher.

• derived from global scenarios → consistency across scales

Derived urban futures can pressure-test sustainability solutions

Method gives rise to a shared rationale for interventions

can guide practice at every level from policy formulation through to

implementation in specific sites, reducing the risk of “box-ticking”.

How might the future change?

The

population

decreases?

The site is sold

and the new

owner doesn‟t

prioritise reduced

car ownership?

Someone

removes the

roadside

trees?

Live/work

becomes

the

norm?

Shopping

patterns

change?

Government

policy

changes? The city

becomes

more

densely

populated?

There is no budget in five

years to pay for

maintenance?

Residents prefer a

tumble dryer to

hanging their

washing outside?

Future Scenarios

How could the future develop?

New Sustainability

Paradigm

An ethos of „one planet

living‟ facilitates a

shared vision for more

sustainable living and a

better quality of life

Policy Reform

Comprehensive and

coordinated

government action

towards greater

sustainability is

initiated

Market Forces

Well functioning

markets are seen as

the key to resolving

social, economic and

environmental

problems

Fortress World

The world is divided,

with the elite in

interconnected,

protected enclaves

and an impoverished

majority outside

The Urban Futures MethodUsing future scenarios to determine performance of

interventions made in the name of sustainability

Sustainability and Interventions III

An Intervention must have at least one intended benefit,

but it is often lost in the design or decision chains of planning and

development.

Any solution/intervention can have unintended drawbacks.

Drawbacks are often context-specific, but so too are benefits.

MacKenzie, A.R., T.A.M. Pugh and C.D.F. Rogers, “Sustainable Cities: seeing past

the trees”, Nature, 468, p765, 9 December 2010.

SolutionGreywater

Recycling

BenefitReduced

Demand for

Potable Water

Step 1Sustainability Solution & First Benefit

Step 2Necessary Conditions for Success

• Non-potable water demand

• Enough greywater must be

collected

• Enough greywater must be

stored

• Must be economically viable

• Must be acceptable to the

community

• Others?

Interactive Tool

New Sust‟bility

Paradigm

Efficient

technologies

and use

Policy Reform

Efficient

technologies

but not use

Market Forces

No change

from current

behavior

Fortress World

Rich and Poor

Non-potable

water

demand

Low demandMedium

demandHigh demand

Rich – High

demand

Poor – Low

demand

Enough

water must

be collected

Risk not

enough

collected

Enough

collected

Enough

collected

Rich – Risk not

enough collected

Poor – not enough

collected

Enough

water must

be stored

Risk not

enough stored

Enough

stored

Enough

stored

Rich – Risk not

enough stored

Poor – Not enough

stored

Economically

viable

ROI takes too

long

ROI

borderline

acceptable

Fast ROIFast ROI for rich

and poor

Acceptable to

the

community

Highly

acceptable

Questionable

acceptability

Low

acceptabilityHigh acceptability

ScenariosN

ecessary

Conditio

ns

STEP 1

Solution & Benefit

STEP 2

Necessary Conditions

STEP 3

Future Performance

STEP 4

Resilience to future

change

STEP 5b

Adapt

STEP 5a

Implement

STEP 5c

Seek Alternative

INNOVATION

STEP 1

Solution & Benefit

STEP 2

Necessary Conditions

STEP 3

Future Performance

STEP 4

Resilience to future

change

STEP 5b

Adapt

STEP 5a

Implement

STEP 5c

Seek Alternative

The analysis has flagged up reasons why

the solution may fail. This is the starting

point for adapting the solution or..

INNOVATION

STEP 1

Solution & Benefit

STEP 2

Necessary Conditions

STEP 3

Future Performance

STEP 4

Resilience to future

change

STEP 5b

Adapt

STEP 5a

Implement

STEP 5c

Seek Alternative

This analysis - reasons why the solution may fail.

Starting point for adapting the solution or..

Considering more resilient alternatives

INNOVATION

INNOVATION

Lombardi DR, Leach JM,

Rogers CDF et al. (2012)

Designing Resilient Cities: a

Guide to Good Practice. IHS

BRE Press, Bracknell, UK

Sustainable innovation puts in place necessary conditions and avoids hostages to fortune

Urban-futures.org