Roadmapping the Future From the Outside In

Roadmapping the Future from the Outside In

Irene J. Petrick, [email protected]

Irene J. Petrick & Russ Martinelli

WebinarOctober 15, 2015

Russ [email protected]

Strategy from the Outside-in: Profiting from Customer ValueIn 2010, George Day and Christine Moorman published a book that would go on to win the Berry-AMA 2011 Book Prize for the best book in marketing. Their argument:

Shareholder value, core competence, six sigma and right sizing all influential strategy ideas have lured many companies into a dangerous internal focus, viewing the world from the inside-out. This type of thinking distracts companies from the core purpose of a business: to create and serve customers.

In 2010, Forbes noted

With all of the recent changes in the market, its more important than ever to know and understand your customers. When revenues are down, it is natural to focus on short-term strategies that eliminate costs, yet an internal focus can debilitate your business down the line. Instead, enterprises should focus on external trends, customer behaviors and new technologies that are changing the industry landscape going forward.

Rob Tarkoff, The Value of an Outside-In Strategy, FORBES, 12-1-2010

More recently, Inc. again stressed this point

The two most important questions for entrepreneurs looking to take their business to the next level? How can we play our current hands of cards better and How is the world changing around us and why?

[and they went on]

Both questions are essential for identifying a successful business strategy and eventually need to be tightly integrated. But where you start may influence greatly where you end up.

Paul Schoemaker, http://www.inc.com/paul-schoemaker/questions-to-ask-when-setting-your-companys-strategy.html

What are we trying to accomplish?

TechnologyDevelopment Applied Research Basic Research

Sources of Competitive Advantage

Internal Resources

Manufacturing Outsourcing Strategy

I/P Partnership StrategyExternal Resources

Capabilities

Manufacturing

I/P

Strategy

Strategy

Composite Roadmap

PRODUCT GoalProduct Portfolio Plan

Government, Social, International and Other FactorsEnvironment

Market Changing Customer/Consumer Needs & WantsChanging Path to the Market

External Factors

Assessment Roadmap

Strategic Roadmapping: The basics

To be grammatically precise: Roadmap (noun) Roadmapping (verb )

Lots of options, but some common traits: Decomposition of complex systems into pieces Decomposition along functional lines (frequently) Graphic representation over time (generally on the

horizontal)

Roadmaps generally come in sets

The picture is nice; the

discussion is everything!

Important

Invaluable

The Strategic Roadmapping Life Cycle

Call to action

STRATEGIC IMPERATIVE: An external competitive threat creates an appetite for change and prompts the organization to identify strategic goals

ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT: Brainstorming sessions about events that may occur in the future help map the lay of the land

TRENDS & ASSUMPTIONS: Discussions while walking the wall identify key trends and assumptions. Assumptions help teams question their dominant logic.

TREND PRIORITIZATION: Voting through wisdom of the crowd helps to identify the few critical trends. Filtering is based on the companys strategic imperative

CRITICAL TRENDS AND ASSUMPTIONS AS INPUTS TO STORYTELLING: Prioritized trends and the assumptions identified are used as input to small groups developing scenarios.

STORY TELLING & PROBLEM FINDING: Small groups take 2-4 critical trends and envision a future scenario around those trends. The group tells a story about that future world and the problems that exist in it, often from the point of view of the end user.

Envisioning the future from the outside in

Defines the strategic problem to be solved

Drives non-incremental thinking

Forces redrawing of the box

Sets the strategic compass for the work that follows

CALLTO

ACTION

Beginning with the Call to Action

Our favorite

I have a multi-billion dollar business

I have 98% market share

I have a successful team

I have to grow 10% year-over-year

Developing swimlanes

Look at the external environment What factors are driving the user experience and the expecations of users? What factors are driving the competitive landscape? Are there global issues related to this environment? What does the ecosystem look like and what might be influencing this?

We recommend Always have an end user swimlane Most assessment roadmaps include some type of IT related swimlane Rule of thumb: If you have fewer than 5 swimlanes youre probably not

granular enough; but if you have more than 8 swimlanes, most teams get bogged down in where to put their observed future events

Environment element examples

Autostereoscopic3D technology

becomes available

Youth vs elderly: Volume & income

earning trends make both equal opptymkts with distinct

needs

Microtransactions become primary

form of online consumption

Face recognition becomes the basis for

personalized car experience

Good Examples

Bad Examples

Intelligent customized

devices

Virtual learning replaces physical

classrooms

Voice Recognition

Home size declines E-privacy laws

Boeings outside in view of key future trends2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132006 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920052004 20212020 2022 2023 2024-2030CATEGORY

GLOBAL AIRTRANSPORTENVIRONMENT

AIRLINEECONOMICSENVIRONMENT

AIR TRAVELSYSTEM

ENVIRONMENTNOISE/EMISSIONS/MATERIALS

COMPANYBUSINESSENVIRONMENT

PRODUCTSFOR PEOPLE

COMPETITION

GOVERNMENTSAFETY/CERTIFICATION/SECURITY

But it didnt start out as a beautiful picture

Russ Martinelli and Irene Petrick discuss session outputs

Analyzing assessment roadmaps walking the wall

Key outcomes from the assessment session:

1. Assumptions2. Trends3. Problems4. Minority report

Example: Automotive industry environmental assessment2015-16 2017-18 2019-20 2021-22

End Users

Emerging Markets

Government

Technology

Competition

Relatively Certain: Yellow Uncertain: GreenGreen

Yellow

Home energy is managed from the car

Location based targeted advertisingdelivered to devices based on location

Gvt limits text/multimedia UI for driver

Entertainment profiles/data stored in

the cloud

US and EU unable to agree on connected car secuirity

and privacy regs. Go sepeate ways in developing stds

Better UI (contextual recog, gesture, face reg) for automotives

Passenger profiles for favorite songs,

apps, etc

Moble media adoption takes off

in emerging markets

China will develop own vehicle ent.

systems

Gvt requires increased % recycleability

Car timesharing (vs single ownership)

becomes wide spread in emerging markets

Driverless becomes major

mode of transportation

China establishes 20% market share in US and EMEA

Smart cities take off -

requires fewer cars

DOTs establishhigh speed lanes for autonomous

driving - cars only

Device physical forms completely disappear &

human machine interactions change radically

Form factor (interface and portability dominate user

experience

Domestic Chinese OEM

passes Toyota in WW production

First law passes

requiring voice control

Gvt mandates our use of

electric/environmental safe cars

Adaptive heads up

display goes mainstream

Autopilotfeatures in over 25% of

cars

Manage, connect to and share all data

(music/files) from theicar

China, Brazil and India become large emerging

markets demanding high-end systems in their cars

China total auto fleet hits 100

million

Gvt makes handheld

device use in cars illegal

Natural language processing becomes integral to the car

experience

Gvts WW require controlled/limited mobile

device operation in vehicles due to fatalities

Pervasiveremote

access/control to car

Use-based revenue

generaterfavored by govt

Affordable personal transport for EM countries leads to further productivity growth and shifts from urban centers

Multi-media popular

worldwide for passengers

Cameras become common in cars - even low

end

Touchscreen available for nav/headunit control

Dual view display availfor high end

cars

Providing a vertical solution addressing complexity & TTM

Technology in the car is SAFE,

SECURE, and SMART

BB access used in cars

for connectivity

Seamless, stds-based connectivity between any car and any device

Competitorprovides fully

warranteed vertical stacks

One big supplier gives up on

market

ISV makes a big play to get

in the auto services

China becomes exporter of

autos/trucks to US & Europe

CE device connectivity pervasive for

seamless access to content control

Electric / hybrid cars gain 30% market share

Cars unlock & self-start based on our

fingerprints or retina

Cars can do a breath analysis and 'not start' to prevent

DUI

Car-to-car communicationsfeatured on over 50% of new cars

July '11 Env Assessment

2015-162017-182019-202021-22

End Users

Emerging Markets

Government

Technology

Competition

Relatively Certain: Yellow Uncertain: Green

Green

Yellow

Home energy is managed from the car

Location based targeted advertising delivered to devices based on location

Gvt limits text/multimedia UI for driver

Entertainment profiles/data stored in the cloud

US and EU unable to agree on connected car secuirity and privacy regs. Go sepeate ways in developing stds

Better UI (contextual recog, gesture, face reg) for automotives

Passenger profiles for favorite songs, apps, etc

Moble media adoption takes off in emerging markets

China will develop own vehicle ent. systems

Gvt requires increased % recycleability

Car timesharing (vs single ownership) becomes wide spread in emerging markets

Driverless becomes major mode of transportation

China establishes 20% market share in US and EMEA

Smart cities take off - requires fewer cars

DOTs establish high speed lanes for autonomous driving - cars only

Device physical forms completely disappear & human machine interactions change radically

Form factor (interface and portability dominate user experience

Domestic Chinese OEM passes Toyota in WW production

First law passes requiring voice control

Gvt mandates our use of electric/environmental safe cars

Adaptive heads up display goes mainstream

Autopilot features in over 25% of cars

Manage, connect to and share all data (music/files) from thei car

China, Brazil and India become large emerging markets demanding high-end systems in their cars

China total auto fleet hits 100 million

Gvt makes handheld device use in cars illegal

Natural language processing becomes integral to the car experience

Gvts WW require controlled/limited mobile device operation in vehicles due to fatalities

Pervasive remote access/control to car

Use-based revenue generater favored by govt

Affordable personal transport for EM countries leads to further productivity growth and shifts from urban centers

Multi-media popular worldwide for passengers

Cameras become common in cars - even low end

Touchscreen available for nav/ headunit control

Dual view display avail for high end cars

Providing a vertical solution addressing complexity & TTM

Technology in the car is SAFE, SECURE, and SMART

BB access used in cars for connectivity

Seamless, stds-based connectivity between any car and any device

Competitor provides fully warranteed vertical stacks

One big supplier gives up on market

ISV makes a big play to get in the auto services

China becomes exporter of autos/trucks to US & Europe

CE device connectivity pervasive for seamless access to content control

Electric / hybrid cars gain 30% market share

Cars unlock & self-start based on our fingerprints or retina

Cars can do a breath analysis and 'not start' to prevent DUI

Car-to-car communications featured on over 50% of new cars

Call to action








Using crowd sourcing to filter environmental trends

Many trends some are more important than others

Key outcomes from trend analysis: 1. Call to action and strategic

intent used to prioritize2. Cross-disciplinary perspective3. Top trends identified4. Used to create future scenarios

Any time, any device, anywhere access to content expectation is increasing

Shared ownership of vehicles will increase in emerging markets

Governments fund 'smart city' development (including smart roads)

Pay-as-you-drive insurance increases

Governments becoming more reliant on technology to collect vehicle revenue

Multiple cameras in automobiles become ubiquitous

Consolidation of networks in the vehicle will occur

Mobile devices make the automobile a dumb terminal

The number and diversity of sensors in the automobile increases

Avionics technology to lead automobile technology

Example: Sample trends from environmental assessment and filtering

Call to action








Webinar #2Oct 29th

Questions

Irene J. Petrick, managing director of TrendScape Innovation Group and former Penn State University professor, is an internationally recognized expert in strategic roadmapping. She is actively engaged with companies in their innovation and technology strategy activities, including work with 12 Fortune 100 companies, the U.S. military, and a wide variety of small- to medium-sized enterprises. She has over 25 years of experience in technology planning, management, and product development in both academic and industrial settings. Irene is author or co-author on more than 150 publications and presentations. [email protected]

Russ Martinelli, managing director of TrendScape Innovation Group is engaged with companies in the areas of business strategy development, business model evaluation, ecosystem development, and technology roadmapping. He has over 20 years of experience in strategy development; portfolio management; new product development program management; and engineering in the high-tech, aerospace and defense, medical, and non-profit industries. Russ is the co-author of multiple books including Program Management for Improved Business Results, and Leading Global Project Teams, and over 60 articles and publications. [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Roadmapping the Future from the Outside InStrategy from the Outside-in: Profiting from Customer ValueIn 2010, Forbes notedMore recently, Inc. again stressed this pointWhat are we trying to accomplish?Strategic Roadmapping: The basicsThe Strategic Roadmapping Life CycleSlide Number 8Slide Number 9Developing swimlanesEnvironment element examplesBoeings outside in view of key future trendsBut it didnt start out as a beautiful pictureSlide Number 14Example: Automotive industry environmental assessmentSlide Number 16Slide Number 17Slide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21