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As Notes turns 25 we look at the future for this Rapid Application Development Platform. Notes has been pronounced dead by many over the years and yet it still lives on. In this session we look at other technologies that have lived on or suddenly died out to find clues on what the future may hold for Notes.
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Lotus NotesLive Long and Prosper
Peter PresnellCEO
Technology Trends
Mainframe
A mainframe has one of the worst price/performance ratios of any product or technology in any industry.
Slam dunk to replace mainframes with faster, smaller, cheaper servers?
COBOL (circa 1959)
55 Years
COBOL is not modern
80% of daily business transactions are still processed in COBOL
* IT Modernization: The Changing COBOL Market Could Affect Your Decision – Gartner Group, 8 August 2008
One in four universities teach COBOL
* Bridging the COBOL skills gap – Micro Focus, 2013
Why?
High barriers to entryHigh barriers to exit
Enterprise Apps: Barriers to entry high
1980: It was the ONLY choice
Enterprise Apps: Barriers to exit high
170 billion lines of code
* IT Modernization: The Changing COBOL Market Could Affect Your Decision – Gartner Group, 8 August 2008
That’s a lot of bitcoins….
And they just keep going
The Risk Of Failure Is High
31% of projects are cancelled before completed53% of projects will cost 189% of their original costs* Choas Report – Standish Group
Businesses will rely on COBOL for another ten to twenty years*
* Bridging the COBOL skills gap – Micro Focus, 2013
* Bridging the COBOL skills gap – Micro Focus, 2013
Businesses will rely on COBOL for another ten to twenty years*
Blackberry
A once thriving company
Suddenly looked like this…..
Mobile: Barriers to entry low
No longer just a business device
Ubiquitous device
Everybody has one
I don’t need multiple phones!
Mobile: Barriers to exit low
We replace our phones every two years
Soon everyone was using something else
Notes will soon turn 25
1989 - 20143
What does the future hold?
Notes Mail
Messaging: Barriers to exit low
Current messaging
File store
30-day transition period
Notes Applications
SMA: Barriers to entry Low
Domino Designer on every desk
Easy to learn and deploy
Handle any problem
The most successful SMA platform ever!
• 50,000 companies• 200 applications (avg)• 10 million applications
Apple’s app store reached 1 million applications in October 2013
And the code….
5,000 lines per application x10 million applications =50 billion lines of code
SMA: Barriers to exit are High
Cost200 applications x$20,000 per application =$4 million investment
10 million applications x$20,000 per application =$200 billion investment
Time
IBM XPages:200 applications x5 weeks per application = 20 years
i.e. Team of 4 developers 5 years
Time
Platform migration:200 applications x3 months per application = 50 years
i.e. Large team of consultants forever
Risk
Cost Overruns
Project Delays
Lack Of Documentation
Business Interruptions
Data Migration Issues
Project Failure
Implications
Notes applications are NOT going away!
Think 10+ years
Business needs are not frozen
The expectation gap Is growing
Adding modern features deliversadditional business value
Access applications anywhere, anytime
Notes Client
Notes is web 2.0
Notes is mobile
Keeping your employees happy
Keeping your business profitable
A sustained investment in the platformMaintenance
Latest Version of Domino Always
Training
Web Enablement: XPages
Mobile Access: XPages
Social Capabilities: SBT
A sustained investment in the platformMaintenance
Latest Version of Domino Always
Training
Web Enablement: XPages
Mobile Access: XPages
Social Capabilities: SBT
Live long and prosper
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