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LECTURE L07DIFFUSION OF TECHNOLOGY
Recap
Installation period Deployment Period
Institutional recomposition
Deg
ree
of te
chno
logi
cal m
atur
ity
and
mar
ket s
atur
atio
n
timeCrash 2000-2008Big bang Intel 4004 1971 Next big bang
Techno-economic split
IRRUPTION
Financial Bubble Time
FRENZYGolden Age
SYNERGY
MATURITY
Source: Carlota Perez
INSTALLATIONPERIOD
TURNINGPOINT DEPLOYMENT
Age of Information 1971 Internet mania and
financial casino2000 & 2008
The Industrial Revolution 1771 Canal mania 1793-97 The Great British Leap
Age of Steam and Railways 1829 Railway mania 1848-50 The Victorian Boom
Age of Steel and Electricity 1875 Infrastructure
bubbles 1890-95The Belle Époque (Europe)
Progressive Era (USA)
Age of Oil andAutomobile 1908 The Roaring
Twenties 1929-33 & 43 Post-war Golden Age
The New Golden Age?
Source: Carlota Perez
Technological Revolution
Current Events
LECTURE L06DIFFUSION OF TECHNOLOGY
Why is it that good products can fail and inferior – “good enough” products can succeed?
What are the customers really buying?
Edison Phonograph Sony Betamax Apple Lisa
Menlo Park1876-1881
Tomas Edison
Edison Phonograph Victor Talking Machine’s Victrola
Enrico Caruso 1873-1921
Edison’s ideas for the phonograph
1. Letter writing and all kinds of dictation2. Phonographic books, which will speak to blind people3. The teaching of elocution.4. Reproduction of music.5. The "Family Record” ... and of the last words of dying persons.6. Music-boxes and toys.7. Clocks that should announce... time for going home, going to meals, etc.8. The preservation of languages9. Educational purposes10. Connection with the telephone
http://memory.loc.gov/ammem/edhtml/edcyldr.html
Edison Phonograph Victor Talking Machine’s Victrola
Phonograph conclusion:
Customers wanted music by their favourite singers - the stars
Disk are more convenient
Porn Industry
Licensing Issues
Betamax standard tape was 60 minutes while VHS was 2 hours
Betamax conclusion:
Customers wanted to record and/or rent movies
Legal issues also played some part
And the Porn Industry was forced to adopt VHS
Development started 1978
Release 1983
Sold 100.000 machines
Featured preemptive multi- tasking OS with Graphical User Interface
Lisa conclusion:
The vision was right
Technology just was not there
Too many features
Customer Motivations
Customer are not always buying products for the reason the inventor thinks
VisiCalc
Technological change is relatively easy
It’s the social, organisational and cultural change that is hard
Innovations that will transform the world
Self-driving car
Personal Robotics in Factories
How does new technology diffuse into a market?
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
Diffusion of Innovation
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
TECHNOLOGY CONSUMER
In the early days The innovators and technology enthusiasts drive the market They demand technology Small percentage of the market
In the later days The pragmatists and conservatives dominate; they want solutions and convenience The big market
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
In the early days THEY BUY FOR THE
WHY
In the later days THEY BUY FOR THE
WHAT
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
VISIONARIES
WHY
Why is Apple so successful when other
companies fail?
APPLE WAS IRRELEVANT AND ALMOST BANKRUPT IN 1997 IN 2012 IT WAS THE MOST VALUABLE COMPANY IN THE WORLD
image:cultformac
AAPL Apple stock from 1997 to now
Why do people wait in line for many hours to get a product you can get by walking in just few days later
And other products, cheaper already do more
It makes no sense
Exactly
BrainNEO CORTX: RATIONAL, ANALITICAL THOUGHT, LANGUAGE
LIMBIC SYSTEM: FEELINGS, TRUST, LOYLTY, BEHAVIOUR, DECISION MAKING
REPTILIAN: INSTINCTS, HUNGER, DANGER
People’s actions and decision are (almost) always motivated by self-interest
Start with Why: How Great Leaders Inspire Action Simon Sinek
FORMULA FOR SUCCESS?
1. Strong funding2. Right people3. Market conditions
Is this all it takes?
Samuel Pierpont Langley
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
VISIONARIES
WHY
Source:GeoffreyA.Moore:Crossingthechasm
Crossing the ChasmThe change in customers as technology matures Crossing the chasm – or the Tipping point
What triggers the tipping point?
What caused the tipping point for the iPod?
Applesaiditsoldarecord22.7millioniPods,whichcommandsa70%shareoftheU.S.marketformusicplayers.(source:LAtimes)
No, it was not just the white earbuds. It’s the whole experience thing
Apple iPod Sales
Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Technology Trends
Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Predicting the Future
All important technologies go through four states, or at least four stages, in their lives. Each stage can be seen as a collision, with something else. The stages are:
1. Critical Price 2. Critical Mass 3. Displace another technology 4. Become nearly free
Theory of Predicting the Future
NEXT
Becoming invisible