National EnvironmentalResearch Institute

The Impact of Climate Change on Future Land-The Impact of Climate Change on Future Land-use in a Coastal Zone Planning Context use in a Coastal Zone Planning Context

30. June – 3. July 200830. June – 3. July 2008Perugia, ItalyPerugia, Italy

Henning Sten HansenHenning Sten Hansen

OverviewOverview• BackgroundBackground

• The climate change challengeThe climate change challenge

• Land-use modellingLand-use modelling

• Examples from Northern JutlandExamples from Northern Jutland

• Conclusion and further researchConclusion and further research

BackgroundBackground• Climate change has been put on the political agenda Climate change has been put on the political agenda

during the last 10 years and special attention is given to during the last 10 years and special attention is given to the impact of climate change in the coastal zonethe impact of climate change in the coastal zone

• Several EU financed projects like Norcoast and Forum Several EU financed projects like Norcoast and Forum Skagerrak emphasised the need for land-use simulation Skagerrak emphasised the need for land-use simulation to compare scenarios for various development to compare scenarios for various development perspectives and nevertheless the effects of global perspectives and nevertheless the effects of global warmingwarming

• The current research is a an extension of the work The current research is a an extension of the work carried out in Forum Skagerrakcarried out in Forum Skagerrak

Emissions scenarios - SRESEmissions scenarios - SRESCO2 emissions (Gt) CO2 concentration (ppm)

Scenario A1: Rapid economic growth, reduction in regional difference in income, population passing its peak in the middle of this century Rapid introduction of effective technologiesFI: Intensive use of fossil energy sourcesT : Focus on non-fossil energy sourcesB : Using as well fossil as non-fossil energy sourcesScenario A2: Continuous uneven economic development and unbroken population growth

Scenario B1: Rapid economic growth and but re- organisation the to service- and information society, introduction of resource effective technologies, the global population culminates about 2050, focus on sustainable developmentScenario B2: Moderate economic growth, continuous moderate growth on world population, slow technological development, focus on local strategies towards a sustainable society

Global warming and sea level riseGlobal warming and sea level rise

Temperature change ( 0C)

*

Sea level rise (m)

*

SRES - Special Report on Emissions Scenarios

*

Sea level rise in the Baltic SeaSea level rise in the Baltic Sea

Best case scenarioslr = 9 cm

Worst case scenarioslr = 90 cm

Climate change and spatial planningClimate change and spatial planning

Source: Danish Television NEWSSource: Danish Television NEWS

Potential flooding year 2100Potential flooding year 2100

LUCIA - LUCIA - LLand-and-UUse se CChange hange IImpact mpact AAnalysisnalysis

GIS based land-useProjection model

Input

Current land-useCurrent land-useZones and plansZones and plansSocio-economic dataSocio-economic data

Output

Scenarios :Scenarios :Future Future Land-useLand-use

IndicatorsIndicators

SustainabilitySustainability? ? ?? ? ?RespondRespond

LUCIA User InterfaceLUCIA User Interface

Project management Scenario management

Log file

Multi-level structureMulti-level structure• The model is structured The model is structured

hierarchically taking hierarchically taking multiple levels into accountmultiple levels into account

• Population and economic Population and economic development change the development change the demand for different the demand for different the active land-use types at the active land-use types at the regional levels whereas the regional levels whereas the precise location of change precise location of change is determined by local is determined by local conditionsconditions

Nationalpressures

Regional level

Local level

Conceptual land-use modelConceptual land-use model

Suitability Accessibility

Proximity Attractivity

Micro level driving forces

Socio-economic changes Macro level driving forces

Land-use (t + 1)

Land-use (t)

Zones

Zones

Zone

sZones

Driving forces for land-use changesDriving forces for land-use changes

• Demography (population development, Demography (population development, migration)migration)

• Economic developmentEconomic development• Technological development (information Technological development (information

society)society)• Spatial planning (environmental legislation, Spatial planning (environmental legislation,

energy policy)energy policy)• Environmental impacts (emissions, climate Environmental impacts (emissions, climate

changes)changes)• Values of the society (quality of life, concern Values of the society (quality of life, concern

about the environment)about the environment)

The model in mathematical termsThe model in mathematical terms

• Like in other models we calculate transition potentials Like in other models we calculate transition potentials for each cell from a set of suitability, accessibility, for each cell from a set of suitability, accessibility, proximity, attractivity and zoning status proximity, attractivity and zoning status

• The state for which a cell has the highest potential will The state for which a cell has the highest potential will be allocated to that cellbe allocated to that cell

PPLL(t+1) = C(t+1) = CLL11(t) * C(t) * CLL

22 * … C * … CLLnn * * ∑∑ ( w ( wLL

ii * F * FLLii ) )

  where where P = Transition potentialP = Transition potentialC = Constraints (0 C = Constraints (0 oror 1) 1)F = Factors (values between 0.0 and 1.0)F = Factors (values between 0.0 and 1.0)w = individual weight factor between 0 and 1w = individual weight factor between 0 and 1L = land-use typeL = land-use type

Land-use 1990Land-use 1990

CORINE 1990

Building and Housing Register

ProtectedNature areas

SuitabilitySuitability• Suitability is based onSuitability is based on

– Existing land-useExisting land-use– Soil typeSoil type– TerrainTerrain

– More can be added !More can be added !

Suitability for residential

AccessibilityAccessibility

K

tyxK

αDA

1

1,,

LowLowHighHigh

Roads

AttractivityAttractivity• Price of land could be a Price of land could be a

possible indicator for the possible indicator for the attractiveness of a attractiveness of a specific locationspecific location

• The price of land for each The price of land for each Danish parcel is available Danish parcel is available from the Danish Property from the Danish Property RegisterRegister

Spatial planning zonesSpatial planning zones

Protected areas

Urban zones

Summer cottage zones

Active, passive and static classes Active, passive and static classes

Land-use scenariosLand-use scenarios• We have carried out two scenarios for land-use We have carried out two scenarios for land-use

development in Northern Jutlanddevelopment in Northern Jutland• The demand for traditional urban land-uses as housing, The demand for traditional urban land-uses as housing,

industry and service is based on ‘official’ population industry and service is based on ‘official’ population projections until 2030 and equal for the two scenariosprojections until 2030 and equal for the two scenarios

• Summer cottage development are different for the two Summer cottage development are different for the two scenariosscenarios

• The baseline scenario follows the level for summer The baseline scenario follows the level for summer cottage development 1990 – 2000cottage development 1990 – 2000

• The alternative scenario takes outset in the figues in the The alternative scenario takes outset in the figues in the baseline but with an 2% yearly increase in the period baseline but with an 2% yearly increase in the period 2005 – 2015 and then kept at this level2005 – 2015 and then kept at this level

Effect of sea level rise and storm surgeEffect of sea level rise and storm surge

• The cross-hatched polygonsThe cross-hatched polygonsrepresent sea level riserepresent sea level rise

• The hatched polygons representThe hatched polygons representcombined effect of sea level and combined effect of sea level and storm surgestorm surge

Future impacts of expected sea level riseFuture impacts of expected sea level rise

ConclusionConclusion

• The current research demonstrates how a land-The current research demonstrates how a land-use simulation model can be used to assess use simulation model can be used to assess the impacts of climate change on future urban the impacts of climate change on future urban development in the coastal zone – not at least development in the coastal zone – not at least the expansion of summer cottagesthe expansion of summer cottages

• The use of spatial scenarios facilitates The use of spatial scenarios facilitates discussions among professional planners and discussions among professional planners and defines a useful foundation for discussion of defines a useful foundation for discussion of spatial planning regulations with policy makers spatial planning regulations with policy makers as well as the general publicas well as the general public

Further researchFurther research

• The current simulations are based on business The current simulations are based on business as usual regarding urban developmentas usual regarding urban development

• Forthcoming research tries to make a stronger Forthcoming research tries to make a stronger integration of climate change scenarios and integration of climate change scenarios and land-use scenariosland-use scenarios

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !

E-Mail : E-Mail : hsh@land.aau.dkhsh@land.aau.dk hsh@dmu.dkhsh@dmu.dk