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Presented by Jim Hansen, CCAFS Theme Leader, at CG Contact Point Meeting in Bonn, 9 June 2011.
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Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk
Theme 2 Strategy 2011-2015
Jim Hansen
The Problem
CR
ISIS
HA
RD
SH
IP
FOR
FEIT
ED
OPPO
RTU
NIT
Y
Climatic outcome (e.g. production, income)
Pro
ba
bili
ty d
en
sit
y
• Climate-related risk impedes development– Downside risk– Opportunity cost– Affects farmers, markets, “relief trap”
• Source of chronic poverty, vulnerability• Increasing climate variability anticipated
The Opportunity
• Under-exploited opportunities to better manage climate risk
• Immediate win-win actions to build climate resilience
• CG-relevant synergies
• Key hypotheses:
– Make agriculture more resilient to future climate change.
– Reduce impediments to structural adaptations to future climatic shifts.
Conceptual Framework
Objective 1: Local–level Risk
Management Goal: Resilient rural
livelihoods• Target: rural communities
& markets; supporting institutions & policies
Scale
Objective 2: Food System Risk
Management• Goal: Enhanced food
security
Target: food trade, crisis response, policy – global & focus regions
Objective 3: Climate Information and
Services Goal: Enhance products and
services to support food security and rural livelihoods
• Target: climate community, communication intermediaries, users (O1 & O2)
Fill key gaps:
• Knowledge
• Tools & Methods• Evidence
• Capacity
• Coordination
GENDER & EQITY LENS
Enhanced climate services
Enhanced climate
services
Improved, climate-informed responses
Resilient food systems,
Improved food security
Enhanced support for managing risk
Resilient rural livelihoods
Climate-Resilient Rural Livelihoods
• Under-exploited, scalable risk management innovations
• Technology evaluation & targeting, not development
• PAR at benchmark locations
• Knowledge synthesis
Designed Diversification
Index-Based Risk Transfer
Anticipatory Management
Technology Evaluation
Scalable Indigenous CRM
Illustrative Research
• Index-based insurance– Targeting, design
– Developing better indexes
• Advance information for adaptive management
• Designed diversification
• Scalable, transferrable indigenous risk management
• Household-level risk/resilience design & ex-ante evaluation
Food System Risk Management
• Understand climate impacts on food security
• Climate-sensitive decisions• Information an entry point
for improving processes• Knowledge sharing,
coordination• New food system
partnerships
Manage price volatility
Food crisis response
Food security safety nets
Post-crisis recovery
Improved early warning (O3)
Platform for coordination
Marcus Prior, WFP
Illustrative Research
• Food system – farm household cross-scale interactions
• Impact of climate fluctuations on food security components
• Drivers, impacts, management of price volatility
• Costs vs. timing of alternative food security interventions
• Institutional arrangements for regional food security planning, coordination
Climate Information Products, Services
• Climate information products:– Address critical gaps– Prediction of agricultural
production, biological threats
• Climate services– Institutional arrangements– Capacity of providers
• Capacity to respond (O1, O2)
Historic data reconstruction
Downscaled, tailored seasonal forecast
informationMonitor & forecast crops,
rangelands, pests & diseases
Institutional arrangements
Communication processes
Curricula, training
Illustrative Research
• Overcoming data scarcity as a constraint to CRM
• Predicting climate impacts on crops, forage, biological threats
• Tailoring climate information to decision-making
• Scalable, sustainable, equitable delivery mechanisms
• Agriculture & food security regional climate service roadmaps
Key Results in 2010
• Regional reviews of climate services for agriculture
• Regional evaluation of rural information delivery systems for climate-related services
• Climate and food security management scoping and strategy development
• Historic daily rainfall data reconstruction
• Remote sensing data assimilation for crop forecasting
• Modeling climate impacts on biological threats