IDTechEx Research: RFID: 2015 Review and Outlook to 2020

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RFID: 2015 Review and Outlook to 2020IDTechEx / [email protected]

Raghu Das, CEO, IDTechEx


Forecasts by application, technology, territory, value chain and more

www.IDTechEx.com/RFID

New IDTechEx Research Covering the Entire Market

The most comprehensive research into RFID markets, with over 100 tables dissecting the entire RFID industry – historic and forecast sales and analysis of trends, suppliers and technologies.

RFID Forecasts, Players and Opportunities 2016-2026


Cumulative sales of tags from 1943 to the start of 2015DIGITALLY-‐ENCODED RFID TAGS ABOVE 0.1cm RANGEWorldwide sales cumulative numbers for cards, labels, fobs

Total number 35 billion (2014 – 7.6 billion sold)

o Passive: 34 billion

o Active/RTLS: 1 billion

Historic sales of RFID


UHF (RAIN) RFID Tags Forecast

Millions

Apparel will continue to dominate

Other applications will grow (apparel 80% in 2015 to about 60% in 2018)

After apparel, many diverse applications “asset management” but fragmented and varying volumes, but strong payback from high performance, low cost devices

Strong growth in other retail items beyond apparel


Total RFID Market Size$ Billions

2015 - $10.1 Billion (2014 - $9.45 Billion;; 2013 - $8.79 Billion)


Retail: Beyond apparelRetailers with extensive apparel RFID programs have been extending to other items where they can get some payback, e.g. soft furnishings (M&S), sports goods (Oxylane)

UHF (RAIN) RFID performance for anti-theft is excellent – will be on par with traditional EAS systems and therefore antitheft will become a driver for RFID

As a way to increase sales, item identification is of interest in the form of o better customer service (e.g. recommending matching products, VIP service etc.)o new marketing information that can be gained that was not readily available before (product movement in store for optimal store layout), patterns in picking up products then buying them, browsing habits etc

Many different projects underway depending on the retailer/products. Likely to be 3 or more years before high volume (e.g. hundreds of millions tags) for non apparel retail item opportunities emerge but a good payback story is brewing.


Sensor and data logger market“Data loggers” comprise of a market of hundreds of millions of dollars to prove compliance for insurance policies or asked for by customers to their suppliers. These are expensive devices, need ongoing calibration, analytics etc.

RFID innovationTargeting existing and new markets (healthcare, retail etc.)One magnitude (and possibly two) price reduction thanks to new ICs built around existing RFID standards – versions that work at NFC and UHF (RAIN) are available

• Standardized reader network• Lowers cost• Supply chains know RFID

Focus is on QC/QA in retail to provide a marketable differentiation. Some retailers in pilots now with suppliers using temperature sensors so that freshness can be monitored.Others addressing healthcare applications.


Contactless payments gain momentum – better marketing from credit card companies/banks, wide spread adoption by retailers and other POS applications (such as taxis), support for payments by Apple in iphone 6

Many NFC projects including with allied technologies such as printed electronics.o Monitors when bottle is opened o Provides different messaging for the user when closed vs open

o Also provide notice of anti counterfeiting and product authenticity

NFC

Thinfilm Electronics


Other trendsElectronic Shelf Labels (ESLs) are a rapidly growing market. Widespread adoption initially in countries where there are heavy fines for incorrectly labelled products.

Tag and reader providers move downstream to offer a software element, usually cloud based. Aiming to sell a “horizontal” platform into vertical markets.


Tag Cost ComparisonsComponent Trends/Comments UHF RFID

Chip 2011-2014 saw asp fall by an average of around 8% per year due to volume growth. Prices are more stabilized now.

Chip attach (e.g. flip chip)

Innovation – speed of IC placement and handling smaller ICs while maintaining yield

Adhesive – chip to substrate

Target is to increase cure/sinter speed of conductive adhesive which would increase throughput.

Antenna and substrate materials

Strong innovation

Antenna manufacture equipment depreciation, processing cost

Strong innovation

Additionally, incremental savings achieved by moving to lower labor cost territories. Inlay manufacture at UHF is a commodity business


Forecasts by application, technology, territory, value chain and more

www.IDTechEx.com/RFID

New IDTechEx Research

The most comprehensive research into RFID markets, with over 100 tables dissecting the entire RFID industry – historic and forecast sales and analysis of trends, suppliers and technologies.

RFID Forecasts, Players and Opportunities 2016-2026

Technology

IDTechEx Research: RFID: 2015 Review and Outlook to 2020