Human geography12

Human Geography: Places and Regions in Global

Context, 5eChapter 12: Future Geographies

Paul L. Knox & Sallie A. Marston

PowerPoint Author: Keith M. Bell

OverviewThis concluding chapter considers the world’s future. Given twentieth-century trends, what will the world look like in a few decades from the present? Students should be aware that knowledge of human geography—the topics covered in the textbook—may help in understanding what the future will bring.The basic theme of this textbook is globalization. Each of the book’s chapters has focused on this theme, noting how the processes of globalization originated and how they have shaped nature and society. Chapter 12 sums up these impacts and considers the future especially in terms of the future of resources, technology, and spatial change. The chapter concludes with a discussion of sustainable development, a vision of development that may help address many of the problems initiated by globalization.

Chapter Objectives

• The objectives of this chapter are to:– Examine both global and local prospects– Survey future resources, technology, and

spatial change– Examine cultural dissonance and

sustainability

Chapter Outline• Mapping Our Futures (p. 456)

– How is globalization changing the world?• Resources, Technology, and Spatial Change (p. 458)

– Transportation technologies– Biotechnology– Materials technologies– Information technologies

• Regional Prospects (p. 460)– Uneven development– The United States, Europe, China, and India, and a New World Order?– Life on the margins

• Critical Issues and Threats (p. 468)– Cultural dissonance– Regional integration and fragmentation– Sustainability

• Conclusion (p. 472)

Geography Matters

• 12.1 Geography Matters—Dark Age Ahead? (p. 458)– Is American society in decline? Some thoughts of

Jane Jacobs on the subject

• 12.2 Geography Matters—How the World Sees the United States (p. 466)– Asian, African, Latin American, Middle Eastern, and

European thoughts on the United States

• 12.3 Geography Matters—The Asian Brown Cloud (p. 471)– Air pollution over Asia

Future Geographies

In some ways, the future is already here, embedded in the world’s institutional structures

and the dynamics of its populations.

New and emerging technologies that are likely to have the most impact in reshaping human

geographies include advanced transportation technologies, biotechnology, materials

technologies, and information technologies.

The changes involved in shaping future geographies will inevitably bring with them some

critical issues, conflicts, and threats including important geographical issues that center on scale, boundaries, and territories; on cultural

dissonance, and on sustainability.

Mapping Our Futures• How will the forces of broadening global connectivity—and

the popular reactions to them—change the fates and fortunes of world regions?

• Optimistic Scenarios– Potential for technological innovations

– New resources

– New transportation and communication linkages

• Pessimistic Scenarios– Finite nature of Earth’s natural resources

– Irretrievable environmental degradation

– Economic polarization

– Breakdown of law and order

The 2020 Global Landscape

Dark Age Ahead?• Jane Jacobs argues that the United States is

slipping toward the beginnings of a new “Dark Age” as a result of the deterioration of five pillars of modern society:– Community and family– Higher education– The application of science and technology– The integrity of the professions– The role of government in relation to society’s needs

and potential

A Dark Age Ahead? (Part 2)• Jacobs fears of an incipient Dark Age go well beyond her past

concerns for urban development, centering as they do on several important aspects of higher education.

• The roots of her concerns are based on evidence of:– Corporate immorality in the marketplace instead of entrepreneurship

bonded to social justice– Universities that serve employers and act as credentials factories, stripping

the music, art, ethics, idealism, and notion of the public good out of education

– Scientific research increasingly and immorally being bought by corporations or suppressed and ignored by governments

– A neoliberal political economy that is intent on abandoning the stewardship of urban and regional development

• “A culture is unsalvageable if stabilizing forces themselves become ruined.” (Jane Jacobs)

Global Social Hierarchy: United KingdomThe “elite stratum” of the new social hierarchy, core countries will continue to advance as traditional geographic groupings will increasingly lose salience in international relations. The elite are participants in—and beneficiaries of—the fast world of new transport and communications technologies, globalized production networks, and global consumer culture.

Global Social Hierarchy: MexicoThe “middle stratum” of the new social hierarchy, the embattled semiperiphery are also participants in the global economy. However, they have fewer benefits and limited opportunities: assembly-line workers in offshore commodity chains, for example.

Global Social Hierarchy: HaitiThe “marginalized stratum” of the new social hierarchy is part of the periphery. These countries and people will have to survive in the slow world, largely disconnected from formal economies and the dynamics of globalization.

Disruptive Technologies• The United States National Intelligence Council has identified six

potentially disruptive technologies that could emerge in the coming years.

• A disruptive technology is a technology with the potential to cause a—even if temporary—degradation or enhancement of one of the key elements of U.S. national power (geopolitical, military, economic, or social cohesion).

• The six disruptive technologies most likely to enhance or degrade U.S. national power to 2025 are:– Energy storage technologies– Biofuels and bio-based chemicals– Clean coal technologies– “Biogerontechnology”– An Internet of Things

Geographic Information Systems

• Geographic information systems have rapidly grown to become one of the most important methods of geographic analysis, particularly in military and commercial worlds.

• Between 2000 and 2005, GIS services grew at a rate of around 10 percent per year.

• Many GIS operations in the United States, Europe, Japan, and Australia have begun to contract out such work to firms in countries where labor is cheaper. India has emerged as a major data-conversion center for GIS.

Index of Income Inequality

Dark green countries have large disparities between the “haves” and the “have-nots” across the globe, indicating a small middle class. Light green countries show more balance in income earnings.

European Growth Axes

Most of Europe’s major cities and advanced manufacturing regions lie along a crescent-shaped axis. European industries are world leaders in chemicals, insurance, engineering, construction, and aerospace industries.

A New World Order?• The old order of the “short” twentieth century (1914–1989),

dominated economically and politically by the United States, is rapidly disappearing; we are coming to an end of a geopolitical leadership cycle. Who will the new player for dominance be?– The United States of America

• Reigning hegemon with the world’s largest economy; remains the strongest contender, but with many challenges ahead

– The European Union• Successful enlargement to 27 members, combined with already-successful monetary

union and economic integrations, leave Europe poised for leadership; too much expansion too soon will test the institutions; immigration is a key concern

– China and India• “Pacific Destiny” for China as it has extended its “open-door” policy and allowed foreign

investment; India as well continues to invest in emerging technologies; conflict and cooperation will play a huge role for both

– At the Margins

At the Margins• The worse-off regions face

unprecedented levels of demographic, environmental, economic, and societal stress.

• The next 15–20 years reveal that peripheral nations have scarce basic resources, serious environmental degradation, overpopulation, disease, unprovoked crime, refugee migrations, and criminal anarchy.

• While some African countries are doing well, many still depend on commodity exports and have reduced purchasing power.

Future Prospects in Antarctica• Even the uninhabitable terrain

of Antarctica has become a site for competition among states.

• The radial lines are cartographic devices designed to formalize and legitimate colonial designs on the regions.

• The mineral wealth of this continent will likely be a source of conflict and compromise, and is behind much of the territorial claims.

The Asian Brown Cloud

A study of the Asian Brown Cloud (ABC) sponsored by the UN Environmental Program and involving more than 200 scientists suggests that the ABC not only influences local weather but also may have worldwide consequences. (This view faces southeast over China’s Shandong Peninsula and the Yellow Sea.)

China’s Changing Role in the World Economy

China’s emergence as a significant player in the world economy is reflected in trends of manufacturing output and exports. But one shortcoming in China’s development is creativity. Currently their endeavors are more about mimicking established manufacturing techniques than delving out into new technologies and products.

DarfurIn the Sudan, the brutal oppression, ethnic cleansing, and genocide sponsored by the central government allowed Arab rebels, known as the janjaweed, to slaughter thousands of people in the Darfur region, causing the mass displacement of an estimate one million refugees. Janjaweed means “Devil on horseback,” referring to the horsemen that kill and terrorize the local inhabitants.

Wild Zones

“Wild zones” are places where national governments have lost control over economic development, ethnic conflict, and environmental degradation.

Surveillance Societies• Social, economic, and ethnic

polarization in the cities of the world’s core countries has led to an increase in the electronic surveillance of both public and private spaces.

• Increased presence of private security personnel in upscale settings (i.e., “fortress mentality”).

• The genuine possibility for anarchy and intercommunal violence exists unless a common cause (like religious zeal) can unify the masses.

How the World Sees the United States

• A report by the U.S. National Intelligence Council reflects on the world that President Obama has inherited. It is one that as the sole superpower has many variables that he (and we Americans) must seek to understand and change.

• Asia– Our focus on Middle East affairs (or lack of attention in East Asia) has left a power vacuum

that China may likely fill.

• Sub-Saharan Africa– African countries feel that Westerners will see it as “hopeless” and only focus on the

people/countries that offer some form of commodity or human labor market.

• Latin America– Latinos feel Americans have focused on the “War on Terror” at the expense of “America’s

Backyard.”

• Middle East– Feel U.S. foreign policy has focused too much on corrupt leaders rather than emerging

leadership (e.g., the Saudis, Hosni Mubarak, Hamid Karzai, etc.).

• Europe and Eurasia– Experts feel the U.S.–Europe relationship may deteriorate if our focus shifts to the far east

(i.e., China).

Growth of IGOs and INGOs• Intergovernmental

organizations (IGOs) and international non-governmental organizations (INGOs) have experienced dramatic growth since the 1960s.

• Many national governments have ceded some responsibilities to these institutions.

• What is the likely impact in the future of these entities?

FutureRealizations

• If we are to have a better future, we must use our understanding of the world—and of geographical patterns and processes—to work toward more desirable outcomes.

• Geography: Where else can the science of the environment be married with an understanding of economic, technological, social, political, and cultural change?

• Who but geographers can cope with the diversity of environments and the sheer range of scales at which it is necessary to manage global change?

• We cannot reach sustainability in all ways, all at once, but we deserve scorn and resentment of future generations if we do not try.

End of Chapter 12

Discussion Topics and Lecture Themes

• Using Table 12.1 and the text on pages 456–458 of the textbook, discuss with the class the portrayal of the 2020 Global Landscape. Why are some aspects relative certainties while others are relative uncertainties?– This question can be used to elicit students’

views on the future.

• Some scholars have suggested that China, with its huge population and increasing level of technology, might become the next world power. Is this likely? What factors might prevent China from becoming a dominant world power?

– China still has a long way to go before becoming the next world power. It is still primarily an agrarian country with widely uneven levels of regional development. Check recent journals and newspapers for the debates on China’s role in world affairs. Also see the book by Harm de Blij, Why Geography Matters: Three Challenges Facing America (New York: Oxford University Press, 2005).


• Do you think that the role of the United States as a world power is increasing or declining? What evidence is there for your answer?

– Numerous books published in the 1980s and 1990s reflected on the United States’s position as a world power—many of them arguing that the U.S. was in danger of losing its prime position to Japan. This debate continues, though the Asian financial crisis and the United States’s recent military actions have shifted the nature of the debate.


• What are some of the positive and negative impacts of the globalization of culture?

– Globalization has brought about a homogenization of culture through the language of consumer goods. Many consumer goods—such as Coca-Cola, Nike shoes, Sony Walkmans, and Gap clothing, to name only a few—are now desired around the world. In some respects, individuals may find it easier to identify with people who share their consumer tastes. On the other hand, homogenization of culture has also led to resistance, as people seek to reaffirm their own cultural identity in the face of globalization—and sometimes do so violently. Globalization also affects people differently: some profit from it and see their standard of living rise, while others fall by the wayside.


• What is meant by sustainability? Can you give some examples of sustainability initiatives in your own area?

– Common themes in sustainability include recognition of environmental problems as being global in nature; acknowledgement of the relationship between economy and environment; advocacy of local control of resources; avoiding reliance on non-renewable resources; recognition of the importance of social and cultural traditions; the need to eradicate poverty, hunger, and disease; and the recognition that these factors must also be viewed with future generations in mind.
