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ISCRAM 2011 summer school Tom De Groeve
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1ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Developing disaster alert and impact systems
Lecture at the ISCRAM Summer School19 August 2011
Tom De Groeve
Joint Research Centre of the European Commission
2ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Red earthquake alert
SMS Fax Voice Email
6156 286 148 14062
3ISCRAM Summer School 2011
4ISCRAM Summer School 2011
5ISCRAM Summer School 2011
6
Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS)
• GDACS: system for international disaster response community– Information gap in the initial
response phase Monitoring Impact / risk analysis Information integration
– 15000 active users of 212 countries– Secretariat: OCHA
– Open access, standards OGC, RSS GLIDE number
• JRC’s role: alert and monitoring system– Earthquakes and tsunamis
13 scientific partners Tsunami modelling Impact modelling
– Tropical cyclones 2 scientific partners Wind modelling Impact modelling
– Floods 16 scientific partners Detection Impact modelling
– Extra-tropical windstorms
– Volcanoes
Expert meeting on Early Warning Systems, 28 April 2011
7
Japan tsunami
• 20 minutes: Orange tsunami alert (2.1m waves, M7.9)• 42 minutes: Red tsunami alert (8.6m waves, M8.8)• Alerts sent to 15000 users
– Only global system sending alerts based on tsunami wave heights• Later, JRC released several manual reports on the risk in Japan and
the Pacific
Expert meeting on Early Warning Systems, 28 April 2011
8ISCRAM Summer School 2011
9ISCRAM Summer School 2011
10ISCRAM Summer School 2011
11ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Lecture overview
Developing disaster alert and impact systems– Introduction
Humanitarian assistance, response and GDACS
– Natural hazards Basic physics
– Consequence analysis GIS data and models
– Community Remote Sensing Use of Social media
12ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Joint Research Centre of the European Commission
IRMM – Geel, Belgium- Institute for Reference Materials and Measurements
IE – Petten, The Netherlands- Institute for Energy
ITU – Karlsruhe, Germany - Institute for Transuranium elements
IPSC - IHCP - IES – Ispra, Italy - Institute for the Protection and the Security of the Citizen - Institute for Health and Consumer Protection - Institute for Environment and Sustainability
IPTS – Seville, Spain- Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
7 InstitutesRELEX ECHO ENV JRC...
13
Global Security and Crisis Management
• Global Security and Crisis Management Unit– Preparedness– Response– Recovery– Prevention and risk reduction
• Technology– Text mining (open source
intelligence)– Image mining (remote sensing)– Data mining (statistics)
– Physical / epidemic modelling– System integration (GIS, ICT)
Humanitarian & Disaster Response Technologies, Cape Town, 17 Sept 2010
14
International Emergency Management
Natural disasters, pandemics, conflict
Geospatial technologies
(remote sensing)
Text mining, Visual analytics
Crisis Room Processes
and Technology
Partner organisations– European Union– United Nations
– World Bank– African Union
Social Networking Technologies for Emergency Management, October 27, 2010, Washington
International Humanitarian and
Emergency Response
15ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System
for more effective and efficient humanitarian response
www. .org
an example of a disaster alert and impact system for international
humanitarian assistance
16ISCRAM Summer School 2011
International humanitarian aid
• A complex system with many stakeholders– No “Command and Control
Centre”
• Help is based on scarce information on the disaster– What, when, how, who?
• Decisions must be made very quickly (within 72h)
Humanitarian Aid Flow
Victims
DonorsECHO, etc.
LocalGovernment
UNWFP,HCR…
Local NGOs
Charity
Int. NGOsIFRC, MsF
Coo
rdin
atio
n: U
N O
CHA
17ISCRAM Summer School 2011
EvacuationSearch and rescue
EvacuationSearch and rescue
18ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Refugee managementRefugee camp, Lukole, Tanzania
Refugee managementRefugee camp, Lukole, Tanzania
19ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Inefficiencies in humanitarian response
• Monitoring disasters– 24/7 monitoring capacity is expensive– Many heterogeneous sources of natural hazard
monitoring hard to keep up to date• Response can be delayed because
– Not alerted / monitored– Affected government does not appeal– Not sure if others respond
• Size and type of response must be needs driven (Madrid Declaration 1995)– Size of disaster can be under/overestimated– Information on needs can be incomplete, vague,
lacking
What are the needs??
What is the damage??
Who will respond?
?
Is it a disaster??
How many
people??
What is offered??
time
What is needed now??
20ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Needs-driven response: what are the needs?
• OCHA Cluster approach*– Camp Coordination and
Camp Management– Logistics– Early Recovery– Emergency
Telecommunications
– Emergency Shelter– Health– Nutrition– Protection– Water, Sanitation and
Hygiene
Information needs for responders
Relief needs for affected population(with information need, e.g. affected population)
* OCHA, 2006. Appeal for improving Humanitarian Response Capacity: Cluster 2006
21ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Sources of situational information
1. Early warning and alert systems– Timely knowledge about the occurrence of a natural hazard– Geophysical, meteorological measurement systems
2. Automated consequence analysis– Modelling the likely impact
3. Social media– Timely source, not always reliable– Very hard to turn into useful information
4. International media – Rich source, very timely– but not always true and complete
22ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Sources of situational information
5. Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN-OCHA): – Mandate to coordinate humanitarian response– Sends disaster assessment and coordination (UNDAC) teams, search
and rescue teams (through the INSARAG network) – Sets up an On Site Operations Coordination Centre (OSOCC),
humanitarian information centres (HIC) – Disseminates all information through ReliefWeb
6. Local government, with its local emergency management authority (LEMA):
– Main source for official information on the scale of the disaster
23ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Sources of situational information
1. Alert systems
2. CAT
3. Social Media
4. Media
5. UN-OCHA
6. LEMA Reliability
Timeliness
24ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Information needs versus sources
Early warning or alertAutomated consequence analysisMediaOCHALEMA
Situation
X Source contains information for need
25ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Information needs versus sources
Need clusters
X Source contains information for need
26ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Role of information systems
• Early warning or alert systems• Automated consequence
analysis – GIS based analysis, real-time
or based on scenarios• Media
– Automated intelligent monitoring
• OSOCC / LEMA– Web based “Virtual” OSOCC– Web Portal technology
Addressed (partially) by GDACS
27ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System
a EU and UN initiative
• European Union– Humanitarian aid 2004Member states: € 867 millionEuropean Commission € 570m– 53% of official dev. Aid (ODA)
• Joint Research Centre
• United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
28ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Sharing a global system for alerting and coordination?
– Global
– Disaster
– Alert
– Coordination
– System
– Is interested in disasters anywhere on Earth
– Intervenes if local authorities cannot cope
– Is not a homogeneous community: big players and small players
not all have similar information gathering capacity
– Is not coordinated on all levels: funding, deployment, reporting…
– Does not collect information systematically
• International humanitarian aid community
29ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System
• GDACS provides a systematic approach for– Predictable information of– Predictable quality at– Predictable time
• Through– A network of computer systems and
Internet technology; Computer modeling Mainly task of JRC
– A network of disaster managers 24/7 duty; connected to authorities Mainly task of OCHA
Media analysis
Remote Sensing damage analysis
Field Missions (Search
& Rescue)
Alert
Model
results
time
30ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Objective: “What are the latest disasters?”
31ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Objective: “Is an event of humanitarian concern?”
• The objective is to distinguish between – large earthquake in
unpopulated or resilient regions
– smaller earthquake in highly populated and vulnerable regions
M 6.7
M 6.0
32ISCRAM Summer School 2011
GDACS automatic and manual event analysis
DisasterLevel II Alert
DisasterLevel I Alert
Start of coordi-nation
Event Alerts
TsunamiWarningNetworks
FloodWatch
Networks
EarthquakeObservation
Networks
Trop. CycloneObservation
Networks
Automatic Evaluation of scale of disaster
Geographical,Socio-economic, population data
Alert
Manual Evaluation of scale of disaster
Coordination
Eye witness and Field information
Gov, IFRC, ECHO, NGO
Automatic information collection
33ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Disaster alert: systematic impact analysis
• Event magnitude and affected area
• Collected from specialized sources through Internet technology
• Modelled if required
• People and vulnerability
• Critical infrastructure
Nuclear plantsnear New Orleans
34ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Disaster alert
• Automatic monitoring:– Earthquake, Tsunami,
Cyclone, Floods, Volcanoes• Automatic
– GIS consequence analysis– Classification:
• Alerting system– SMS, Fax, Email
35ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Critical infrastructure: e.g. tropical cyclones
• Bottleneck: global databases– Now: Roads, airports, ports, nuclear plants, hydrodams– Near future: industrial plants (to some extent)
Collaboration with Joint UNEP/OCHA team on environmental risk
36ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Consequence analysis: e.g. earthquakes
• Where?– Circle of 100km
• Affected people?– Sum up pixel values inside
affected area– Weight with indicators for
vulnerability and resilience• Damage? Secondary effects?
– List “critical infrastructure” in affected area
• Fast alerting is very important for earthquakes
37ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Consequence analysis: e.g. tsunamis
• When?– Together with earthquakes– Tsunami propagation model
• Where?– Coastal areas, low elevation,
cities near coast• Affected people?
– Sum up pixel values inside affected area: timing
38ISCRAM Summer School 2011
GDACS: timeline
• Near real-time– Event scraping: delay of ~20 min– Consequence analysis: max 5
min– Alerting (email, fax, SMS): 1500
SMS / 3 min– Web site: maps, analysis,
Google Earth
• Started upon event and ongoing– Model runs (e.g. tsunami wave
height model)– Media monitoring– Map creation / collection
• Situation and field information sharing– Virtual OSOCC portal
Information scraping
Virtual OSOCCAlert & CA
1h 1day 1week
39ISCRAM Summer School 2011
GDACS Media monitoring
European Media Monitor
• Automatic collection of news from over 1000 on-line media sources– Fully Multilingual:
الن إلطالق أحاديا وقفا تعلن باكستانكشمير في ار
• Query interface: – “Show me news with the words
‘earthquake’ and ‘Iran’ from after the earthquake date”
• GDACS, for each disaster– automatically creates a query – keeps this updated for 3 weeks
40ISCRAM Summer School 2011
GDACS disaster mapping
UNOSAT and JRC
• Maps from many organisations are catalogued automatically• GDACS users can request a new map (UNOSAT service)
41ISCRAM Summer School 2011
GDACS Virtual OSOCCCoordination and information sharing
• Chat room: “what’s happening?”, “who’s going?”
• Structured information– Teams– Team status (monitoring,
deployed, mobilising…)– UNDAC reports– Relief items (in kind, pledges)
• Content moderation
• Started around 2000 and is now part of GDACS
• ~12000 professional users• Closed site with registration
– Trusted information– Trust in members
• Routinely used by many LEMA’s and Donor countries
• GDACS antenna offices in Tunesia, Fiji…
42ISCRAM Summer School 2011
43ISCRAM Summer School 2011
44ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Evaluation of GDACS
• Overall– More effective or efficient
process?
• Outcomes– Usage statistics– Number of partnerships
• Components– Alert component: rate of
missed and false alerts
45ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Usage
• Around 15000 users– Mostly from
international aid organisations• Donors / governments• OCHA• INGOs• Red Cross / Red Crescent
NGO’s– Some from
Local emergency management agencies / citizens
Media Insurance & commercial
companies
commercial
Travel, general interest
46ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Usage
• Users by geographical area
Europe32%
Asia13%
North America10%
United Nations10%
5%
Unknown7%
Other37%
European Commission
16%
European Parliament
0%Africa
1%
Oceania3%
Middle East1%
Latin America2%
47ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Alert component
• Missed events
• Missed aid $– EQ: 0.02%– TC: 50%– VO: 0%
48ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Partnerships
• Early warning and alert– USGS, EMSC, WAPMERR,
GEOFON…– Hawaii University, Pacific
Disaster Centre– Dartmouth Flood Observatory– WFP (HEWSWeb)– PTWC– Global Volcanism Program– SWVRC/IntlVRC– IFA/SOLAR– Tropical Storm Risk
• Alert communication– UMTS (Norway)
• Information– Maps: JRC, UNOSAT– Joint UNEP/OCHA PPER:
environmental impact reports– USGS Shakemaps
• And many for the Virtual OSOCC…
49ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Conclusions
• For needs-based response, situational and other information is critical, in particular in the first 72h
• Various information systems can address large parts of the information needs in the early onset of a disaster
• GDACS was a UN/EU initiative to build such a system and is running successfully– Standards based– Community based (professionals, including LEMAs)
http://www.gdacs.org
50ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Introduction to Natural hazards and disasters
Earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes, tropical cyclones, floods
51
Existing hazardmonitoring systems
Expert meeting on Early Warning Systems, 28 April 2011
Data collection Global aggregation
Standard dissemination
Affected area estimation
Impact estimation
Volcano eruptions ?
some partial
Earthquakes and tsunamis
mature mature?
multiple Mature (EQ) Mature (EQ)
Floods
developing
Tropical cyclones
mature mature lacking
Extra-tropical storms
(Europe)existing
?existing lacking
52
JRC’s role in GDACS Bridging gaps
Expert meeting on Early Warning Systems, 28 April 2011
Data collection Global aggregation
Standard dissemination
Affected area estimation
Impact estimation
Volcano eruptions ?
some partial
Earthquakes and tsunamis
mature mature?
multiple mature (EQ) mature (EQ)
Floods
developing
Tropical cyclones
mature mature lacking
Extra-tropical storms
(Europe)existing
?existing lacking
53ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Natural disasters cannot be avoided
• Over 800 disasters affect near 300 million people yearly and kill hundreds of thousands
Source: EM-DAT Emergency Disasters Data Base, www.em-dat.net
54ISCRAM Summer School 2011
More people are affected by disasters each year
But they are not distributed equally
Poor countries are affected more
Source: EM-DAT Emergency Disasters Data Base, www.em-dat.net
55ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Earthquakes
56ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Earthquake mechanism
• Plate tectonics– Relative motion of plates
• Terminology Hypocentre and epicentre
(on surface) Magnitude: logarithmic
measure of energy Intensity: energy on surface
at given distance from epicentre
57ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Earthquake mechanism
• Energy propagates– P and S waves– Attenuation functions
Depends on local geology
• Energy shakes buildings– Earthquake engineering– Vulnerability curves
58ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Earthquake occurrence
• Earthquakes, each year– 500 000 detectable– 100 000 can be felt– 100 cause damage
59ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Earthquake effects
• Shaking and ground rupture– damage to buildings or other
rigid structures. – Site or local amplification
(Mexico City effect): transfer of the seismic
motion from hard deep soils to soft superficial soils
• Landslides and avalanches
• Soil liquefaction – water-saturated granular
material temporally loses their strength and transforms from a solid to a liquid
– buildings or bridges tilt or sink into the liquefied deposits
• Tsunamis• Fires
– break of the electrical power or gas lines
60ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Earthquake data
• Occurrence– Near real time (<15 min)– Location and magnitude, with
uncertainty
– USGS NEIC (US)– EMSC (Europe)– GEOFON (Germany)– JMA (Japan)– …
• Propagation– Shakemaps (USGS)– ESRC (Russia)
• Missing datasets– Building stock
Location, number, type of buildings
– Localized attenuation functions
61ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Tropical cyclones
62ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Tropical cyclone mechanism
• Mechanism– energy released by the
condensation of moisture in rising air causes a positive feedback loop over warm ocean waters
• Movement– Steering winds; Coriolis effect
• Horizontal wind speed profile
24
22max
max RffRePP
R
RbRV
b
R
R
centreenv
b
h
63ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Tropical cyclone occurrence
1985-2005
64ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Tropical cyclone effects
• High winds– people, mobile homes, unsound
substandard structures• Storm surge
– Abnormal rise in the water level caused by the wind and pressure forces
– 90% of death• Heavy rain
– Thunderstorm activity intense rainfall
– Rivers and streams flood, roads become blocked, and landslides can occur
• Tornado activity
65ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Tropical cyclone data
• World Meteorological Organisation– Regional Specialized
Meteorological Centres Official advisories severe.worldweather.org/
rsmcs.html• Compilations at global level
– Pacific Disaster Center (Hawaii)– MetHaz of the University of Central
Florida (based on commercial data product)
– Tropical Storm Risk (http://tropicalstormrisk.com)
forecasting the risk modelled wind fields and
rainfall.
• Modelling data– Wind field equation
location central pressure lacking
– Storm surge Detailed coastal DEM lacking
• Rainfall– Available from radar observations
(e.g. TRMM)
66ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Volcanic eruptions
67ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Volcanic eruptions: mechanism
• A volcano is an opening in the Earth's surface
12: lava flow 15: ash cloud
• Plate tectonics
68ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Types of volcanoes
69ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Volcanic eruptions: occurrence
• How many active volcanoes known? – Erupting now: perhaps 20 – Each year: 50-70 – Each decade: about 160 – Historical eruptions: about 550 – Known Holocene eruptions
(last 10,000 years): about 1300 – Known (and possible)
Holocene eruptions: about 1500
70ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Volcanic eruptions: effects
• The different types of ("primary") eruptive events are:– Pyroclastic explosions– Hot ash releases– Lava flows– Gas emissions– Glowing avalanches (gas and ash
releases)• Secondary events are
– Melting ice, snow and rain accompanying eruptions are likely to provoke floods and hot mudflows (or lahars);
– Hot ash releases can start fires.
• Factors of Vulnerability– Topographic factors; – The proximity of a population to
the volcano; – Structures with roof not resistant to
ashes accumulations; – The lack of warning system and
evacuation plans
71ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Volcanic eruptions: data
• Global Volcanism Program– Smithsonian Institute– Weekly bulletins
• Local volcano observatories
• Volcano Ash Advisories (VAAC)
• Modelling– Local data needed
– Volcano types– Eruption types:
http://volcano.und.edu/vwdocs/vwlessons/kinds/kinds.html
72ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Tsunamis
73ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Tsunamis mechanism
• Tsunamis are giant sea waves that are produced by submarine earthquake or slope collapse into the seabed.
• Tsunamis can travel thousands of kilometers at 500-800km/h with very little loss of energy.
• Successive crests can arrive at intervals of every 10 to 45 minutes and wreak destruction for several hours.
74ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Tsunami mechanism
dgv
• Uplift of continental crust– Length of rupture: increases
with higher magnitude– Initial height: proportional to
length of rupture
• Shallow water
75ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Tsunami wave propagation (SWAN code)
0
y
UHD
x
UHD
t
H yx
)(
)(
1
1
yx
yy
xx
y
xy
yy
xx
x
Ay
P
y
HgFU
y
UU
x
UU
t
U
Ax
P
x
HgFU
y
UU
x
UU
t
U
Mass conservation equation
Momentum conservation equations
Unknowns are H, Ux, Uy
The programme solves the equations in explicit form with a fixed time step, which depends on the size assumed for the bathymetry
Swan code by C. Mader used as basis
76ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Tsunami occurrence and effect
• Continental coasts • Shallow water – Slows down wave– Amplifies wave height
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/seg/hazard/tsu.shtml
77ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Tsunami data
• Real time– UNESCO/IOC– Pacific Tsunami Warning
Center (PTWC, US)– JMA (Japan)
• Relies on seismological data
• Historical– National Geophysical Data
Center, NOAA, US
• Modelling– Bathymetry
Rough: ok Detailed: not
– Run up: DEM needed
78ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Floods
79ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Flood mechanism
• Principle– Hydrology / hydraulics– Modelling is data intensive
80ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Flood mechanism
• Types– Flash floods– River floods (mostly seasonal)– Coastal floods, associated with
tropical cyclones, tsunami, storm surges
81ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Flood occurrence
• Floods cause major human suffering– 78% of population affected by
disasters– 46% of disasters are floods
• International aid for floods– 1/3 of all humanitarian aid– 93% of flood deaths in Asia
Figures from EM-DAT, OCHA, ECHO
82ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Flood effects
• Direct effects: – Drowning– Injuries during evacuation
• Indirect effects:– Agriculture: loss of crops– Destruction of transport and
energy infrastructure– Contamination by toxic
chemicals
• Factors of Vulnerabilities– Location of settlements on
floodplains– Non resistant buildings and
foundations– Lack of warning system and
awareness of flooding hazard – Land with little capacity of
absorbing rain erosion due to deforestation concrete covering
83ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Flood data
• Real time– Hydrographs– Met Offices
– Media– Dartmouth Flood Observatory– Satellite based…
• Historical– Dartmouth Flood Observatory– Disaster databases
• Modelling– Detailed DEM– Real time weather data
84ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Conclusions
• Mechanisms of natural hazards are well known
• Occurrence of natural hazards– Geographical patterns– Random occurrence
• Data on natural hazards– Some data about occurrence
and location of disaster is available in near-real time
– Not all data needed for modelling hazard is available
• Effects of natural hazards on society depend on– Hazard– Affected area– Vulnerabilities
• Consequence analysis must take these into account– Limited by global data
availability
85ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Consequence analysis
Near real time GIS for disaster management
86ISCRAM Summer School 2011
GIS
• GIS = Geographic information system (or science)– Mapping
87ISCRAM Summer School 2011
GIS
– Handling, storing geospatial data Coordinate in 2D or 3D space
special database techniques Spatial Reference System projection Imagery large volumes of data Most (>80%) data has geospatial component
– Manipulating, querying geospatial data Nearby point, line, polygon “In” area, “intersecting” with line Raster statistics sum of population in pixels
88ISCRAM Summer School 2011
GIS systems: network enabled
• Web mapping• Web querying• Web processing
– Routing– Nearest objects– GIS Model
My system
89ISCRAM Summer School 2011
GIS for disaster management
• Disaster management– Typical questions in early onset
Where? What is affected? Who is affected? How many people? How do we get there? What response capacity is nearby? Get me a map. Get me a BIG map! I need information for my briefing: SMALL maps!
– Detailed geospatial information is required Street level base data in Europe; less for Global Application specific data: transport, energy, health, vulnerability
Generating stationsSubstationsPower lines
90ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Global datasets
• Population– Raster, 1km
• Digital Elevation– Raster, 90m
• Bathymetry– Raster, 2 arcmin (~3.6km)
• Topography– Vector, 1km– VMAP0, Global Discovery…– Roads, railways, rivers, populated
places, airports, mountains…• Land cover, land use
• Satellite coverage• Meteorological
– Clouds– Rainfall, winds…
• Not available– Hospitals, medical infrastructure– Energy infrastructure, industrial
plants– Critical roads, bridges– Detailed DEM (for flood, tsunami
modelling)– Building stock, urban areas
91ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Why automating tasks?
• Disasters happen always at night, in the weekend or on Christmas
• It is always the same work– In early stages all crises have similar requirements
• Computers can pre-calculate things or make things according to a template– And they work faster than humans
• Automated things have limitations– Cannot handle unforeseen cases– Can break down over the weekend
92ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Earthquakes
• Where?– Circle where ground motion
longer than 1 second– Circles with varying radius
• Affected people?– Sum up pixel values inside
affected area– Weight with indicators for
vulnerability and resilience• Damage? Secondary effects?
– List “critical infrastructure” in affected area
• Fast alerting is very important for earthquakes
93ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Tsunamis
• When?– Together with earthquakes– Tsunami propagation model– Tsunami wave height model
• Where?– Coastal areas, low elevation
• Affected people?– Sum up pixel values inside
affected area, with timing• Damage? Secondary effects?
– List “critical infrastructure” in affected area
• Animation
94ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Tsunamis
Play
95ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Tsunamis
Time (min)
Seismic event
Event notification
0 +30
EWS detection
Quick analysis and reports (propagation time)
1’
Max 30’
First analysis (height and population affected)
Max 1h
More detailed analysis (run-up calculations) are not of our interest at the moment
96ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Tropical cyclones
• Where?– Track, including forecast– Buffers for Saffir-Simpson
categories (wind speed)
• Affected people?– Sum up pixel values inside
affected area: past, future• Damage? Secondary effects?
– List “critical infrastructure” in affected area
• Early warning is possible• Animation
24
22max
max RffRePP
R
RbRV
b
R
R
centreenv
b
h
97ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Tropical cyclones
• Impact– List critical infrastructure– Population
• Risk (probabilities)
98ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Volcanoes
• When?– Significant change in eruption
status• Where? Affected people?
– Can be pre-calculated– Real time ash cloud information
• Damage? Secondary effects?– List “critical infrastructure” in
affected area• Future
– Imagery…
99ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Volcanoes
• Ash plumes
100ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Conclusions
• GIS can store and manipulate information useful for disaster management
• GIS is a good basis to implement models to calculate or infer information for disaster management
• Standards are essential for distributed systems– OGC, GLIDE, CAP, RSS
• Real time models depend on– Real time input data
Accuracy, timeliness– Available background data
Precision, Fit-for-use– Processing time
Distributed systems– Operational systems
Redundancy, resilience
101ISCRAM Summer School 2011
System design
Operational alerting systems
102ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Automating GIS
Scraper
Alerter
Models DMA
Queuer
ReporterWeb site
Input Output
GIS Analysis
103ISCRAM Summer School 2011
In reality more complex
DMA: Spatial Data Infrastructure
TsunamiSWAN
Servers
SMS Server
Email Server
Fax Server
AsgardLite
GDACS
Development
SMS Server
Monitor
104ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Alerting
• Technology– SMS
Individual messages (rate 10/sec)
Cell broadcast– Email– Fax– RSS, web
• Authority to Authority– Reliable– Training assumed; content can
be difficult
• Authority to Population– Reliable– Culture bound– Trust, authority, source
105ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Operational system
• Reliable: – stable servers, not for development
• Monitoring– When is something down– Action plan to recover
• Redundancy: – copy of system and automatic switch
106ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Developing disaster alert and impact systems
Conclusions
107ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Conclusions
• Disaster alert and impact systems are a combination of– Hazard science
Geophysics Meteorology
– Modelling GIS models Physical models Mathematical models
– GIS Spatial data infrastructure Data collection
– Disaster management Requirements analysis Reporting
– Communication technology Alerting Web systems
– Operational systems Monitoring and recovery Maintenance
108ISCRAM Summer School 2011
Some links
• http://www.gdacs.org– GDACS website
• http://www.gdacs.org/flooddetection– Global Flood Detection System
• http://dma.jrc.it/map– Mapping tool