GDC Europe - Super Data for Digital Games (SuperData Research)

Super Data for Digital Games

1

SuperData | Digital games market intelligence

Prepared for GDC Europe 2014

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

2

Stephanie Llamas Senior Analyst, Consumer Insights SuperData Research @Stephinaners @_SuperData



Who are gamers?

Who are gamers?


Who are gamers?


Who are gamers?


Who are gamers?

Who are gamers?

Name: Alice AKA Stephanie’s !!! Grandma! !

Age: Undisclosed (about the age ! of a grandma)!!

Occupation: Former RN/Currently !! retired! !

Favorite games: PacMan, Legend !! of Zelda, ! ! FarmVille





Who are gamers?





Who are gamers?

HARDCORE!

GAMER

Asia

$18.6 billion

North America

$12.3 billion

Latin America

$4.3 billion

Europe

$11.6 billion

Rest of world

$2.1 billion


Worldwide digital games revenues, 2014E





2011 2012 2013 2014

$48.9$42.6

$34.5$23.7




2011 2012 2013 2014

$48.9$42.6

$34.5$23.7 +2x

15J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

WW digital games market ($ mil)M

onth

ly re

venu

e ($ m

il)

2013 2014

Digital category Last year total(billions USD)

Y-o-Y growth %

Subscription-based MMOs

Free-to-play MMOs

Digital PC (games, MTX, DLC)

Digital Console (games, MTX, DLC)

Mobile (iOS + Android)

Social (all platforms) $8.7 20%Overall

Breakdown by segment




onth

ly re

venu

e ($ m

il)

2013 2014


Y-o-Y growth %


Free-to-play MMOs


Digital Console (games, MTX, DLC)

Mobile (iOS + Android) $21.1 19%Social (all platforms) $8.7 20%

Overall





onth

ly re

venu

e ($ m

il)

2013 2014


Y-o-Y growth %


Free-to-play MMOs


Digital Console (games, MTX, DLC) $2.5 26%


Overall





onth

ly re

venu

e ($ m

il)

2013 2014


Y-o-Y growth %


Free-to-play MMOs

Digital PC (games, MTX, DLC) $6.2 16%

Digital Console (games, MTX, DLC) $2.5 26%


Overall





onth

ly re

venu

e ($ m

il)

2013 2014


Y-o-Y growth %


Free-to-play MMOs $8.0 5%Digital Console (games,

MTX, DLC) $2.5 26%Digital PC (games, MTX,

DLC) $6.2 16%Mobile (iOS + Android) $21.1 19%Social (all platforms) $8.7 20%

Overall





onth

ly re

venu

e ($ m

il)

2013 2014


Y-o-Y growth %

Subscription-based MMOs $2.5 -9%




Overall





onth

ly re

venu

e ($ m

il)

2013 2014


Y-o-Y growth %

Subscription-based MMOs $2.5 -9%




Overall $49 15%



Traditional video game industry value chainResponsibility Example $60

Developer ‣ design, programming, debugging, writing, animation, localization

‣ Westwood Studios, RockStar Studios, Infinity Ward

$6

Publisher‣ capital ‣ marketing ‣ legal, licensing

‣ Electronic Arts, Take-Two, Activision/Blizzard $24

Manufacturer ‣ certificate ‣ production, manufacturing ‣ Nintendo, Sony, Microsoft $12

Distributor ‣ man in a van ‣ storage, delivery

‣ GameWorld, Game Center Distribution $3

Retailer ‣ shelf space ‣ customer loyalty, prod. offerings

‣ GameStop, BestBuy, Walmart $15


Responsibility Example $0.99

Developerdesign, programming, debugging, writing, animation, localization, analytics, monetization, community management

‣ Rovio, OMGPOP! $0.15

Publisher‣ capital, marketing ‣ legal, licensing ‣ user acquisition

‣ Kabam!, KIXEYE, Zynga $0.54

Manufacturer‣ certificate ‣ production, manufacturing ‣ curation

‣ Apple, Google $0.30

Distributor ‣ storage, delivery ‣ Steam, GamersGate

Retailer ‣ user recommendation engine ‣ payment

New video game industry value chain


Digital vs Retail-based revenue for major publicly traded publishers

Retail vs. Digital

Digital vs retail revenues from quarterly filings and estimates for: Activision, EA, Ubisoft, Take Two, Square Enix, Konami, Capcom, Disney, THQ.


2010 20122011 2013Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Reve

nue (

$M)

Retail

Digital

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

25

We know the industry’s growing… but why?


26

We know the industry’s growing… but why?


Mobile Games


Mobile Games


5.0%

5.2%

$21.60

$19.52

Q1 2014

Q1 2013Conversion ARPPUU.S.

Mobile Games

2012 2013 2014

43% Western market share of mobile games revenue


Mobile Games

2012 2013 2014


$21.1B 2014E worldwide mobile games revenue


Mobile Games

2012 2013 2014



1.9B 2014E worldwide mobile games audience (MAU)


Mobile Games

2012 2013 2014



1.9B 2014E worldwide mobile games audience (MAU)

9% 74% 34%


0

100

200

300

400

Mobile Games


# of

mob

ile g

ames

0

100

200

300

400

Mobile Games


0

100

200

300

400


Mobile Games Cartel

Trend: Mobile

1002013

Jan Feb Mar

U.S.CPI ARPU

2014Jan Feb Mar

137

105

indexed


Free-to-play MMOs

2011 2012 2013 2014


P2P

Free-to-play MMOs

2011 2012 2013 2014


F2P

P2P

Free-to-play MMOsMOBAs


Free-to-play MMOs

League of Legends

MOBAs


J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J

Free-to-play MMOs

League of Legends

MOBAs

2011 2012 2013 2014


$7MAverage monthly revenue in 2011


Free-to-play MMOs

League of Legends

MOBAs

2011 2012 2013 2014





Free-to-play MMOs

League of Legends

MOBAs

2011 2012 2013 2014



217%Growth in MAU - July 2012 vs. July 2014

32MM26MM26MM

16MM15MMLeague of Legends:

Season 3 World Championship

BCS National Championship

NBA Finals (Game 7)

NCAA Basketball Final Four (Average)

MLB World Series

Data: Nielsen, Riot #GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData


5-on-5 teamsFree-to-play MMOs

MOBAs


5-on-5 teams35-45 min matches



5-on-5 teams35-45 min matchesLow barrier to entry



5-on-5 teams35-45 min matches

Skill-basedLow barrier to entry



$2MMLeague of Legends prize pool

+salariesaside from prize and sponsorship revenue



2011 2012 2013

prize money

million

2014E

$32

2010 2014E


eSports

2011 2012 2013

viewers

prize money

118million

2014E

million

2014E

$32

2010 2014E


eSports

2011 2012 2013

viewers

prize money

As more people watch eSports, the stakes get higher

118million

2014E

million

2014E

$32

2010 2014E


eSports

attend live eventsone quarterwatch every day


eSports


2.2 hoursAverage eSports viewing session


eSports


Average number of eSports viewing sessions in a month19 times2.2 hours

Average eSports viewing session


eSports

25K21K20K18K

13K

U.S. Open Men’s Grand Slam Final

MLG Spring Championship

NBA Finals (Game 7)

Stanley Cup (Game 6)

LOL Season 3 World Champ.

Data: Riot, NHL, NBA, MLG, U.S. Open

eSports


The age of streaming

540K535K498K

465K464K

Number of average prime time viewers

Data: Nielsen, Twitch

eSports


x2

YouTube

Time spent viewing gaming content

2011 2012

Data: YouTube, MLG, Twitch

The age of streamingeSports


x2 x3

YouTube MLG.tv


2011 2012 2012 2013




x2 x3 x2

YouTube MLG.tv Twitch.tv


2011 2012 2012 2013 2012 2013




x2 x2

YouTube Twitch.tv2011 2012 2012 2013

x2 x3$1B#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData



Digital Console


Worldwide digital console market*

Audience

2013

2014

E Audience

196MM

214MM

Digital Console


Worldwide digital console market*

RevenueAudience

2013

2014

ERevenueAudience

196MM$2.0B

214MM$2.5B

Digital Console


1.98%

1.83%

$26.37

$24.60

Average revenue

Worldwide digital console market

Conversion

*

per paying userrate

Q1 20

13

RevenueAudience

2013

2014

ERevenueAudience

196MM$2.0B

214MM$2.5B

Q1 20

14

Digital Console


10% - Side stories19% - Class unlocks26% - Songs26% - Map packs32% - Expansion packs33% - Vehicles or upgrades36% - Vanity items55% - New weapons or upgrades

Percentage of spenders who bought the following items:

Digital Console

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners



55%Spenders who purchase weapons/weapon upgrades

Digital Console




55%Spenders who purchase weapons/weapon upgrades

40%Spenders who say the cost of items is the biggest inhibitor to more console spending

Digital Console


•GTAV Online’s MMO-like environment keeps micro revenues steady longer.

•GTAV uses virtual currency, much like mobile games.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

$8$9$10$10$11$13$14$14$15$10$7$0

Month since release

Grand Theft Auto V: Worldwide microtransaction revenue, millions

N/A


Digital Console

63% 37%

Digital Console


63% 37%

age

32years old

average

Digital Console


63% 37%

age salary

32 $57kyears old per year

average average

Digital Console


63% 37%

age salary education

32 $57kyears old per year

3YRSof college

average average average

Digital Console


Women and games


Women and games

80%

20%eSports viewers


Women and games

80%

20%eSports viewers

58%42%

F2P MMO players in

Russia


Women and games

80%

20%eSports viewers

58%42%

F2P MMO players in

Russia

37%63%

U.S. Social Casino gamers

#GDCEurope

Women and games

80%

20%eSports viewers

58%42%

F2P MMO players in

Russia

37%63%


36%

64%Polish mobile gamers

#GDCEurope

Women and games

80%

20%eSports viewers

58%42%

F2P MMO players in

Russia

37%63%


36%

64%Polish mobile gamers

35%

65%

U.S. mobile gamers

#GDCEurope

Who are gamers?


Who are gamers?


Who are gamers?


Who are gamers?



Thanks!

Technology

GDC Europe - Super Data for Digital Games (SuperData Research)